The Mets are staring down a daunting, though not impossible, path to the World Series.
In order to advance to the World Series for the first time since 2015, the Mets will need to do something only a select few teams have actually done: Come back from a 3-1 series deficit in the MLB playoffs. The Mets put themselves in a precarious position with their 10-2 loss in Game 4 of the NLCS against the Dodgers, giving them zero margin for error the rest of the way. They recovered for a 12-6 win in Game 5, though their road ahead is still daunting.
To date, 93 teams have faced a 3-1 deficit in the postseason. Of those, only 14 (15%) have come back to advance. In addition, only six other teams forced a Game 7 after trailing 3-1 only to lose the series, meaning 20 of 93 (22%) have forced a do-or-die showdown in this circumstance.
In franchise history, the Mets have faced a 3-1 postseason deficit three times—the 1999 NLCS (lost in six), the 2000 World Series (lost in five) and the 2015 World Series (lost in five). As we await Game 6 and see if the Mets can be one of those 20 teams to take a series to seven games after trailing three games to one, let’s examine some prior comebacks for inspiration:
2020 NLCS: Dodgers over Braves
The last team to complete a 3-1 series comeback is the exact team looking to avoid that fate this time around. The circumstances are hard to translate to this present situation, since the series was played on a neutral site due to the COVID-19 pandemic with no off-days or travel days. Los Angeles trailed 2-0 and 3-1 before winning the last three en route to the World Series title. Incidentally, in the 2020 ALCS, the Astros forced a Game 7 after trailing 3-0 to the Rays, though their comeback fell just short.
2016 World Series: Cubs over Guardians
You just knew the Cubs would have to do something remarkable and memorable to break their 108-year curse, and boy did they ever. In the same year the Cleveland Cavaliers erased a 3-1 deficit to the Golden State Warriors in the NBA finals to break Cleveland’s 52-year title drought, Cleveland’s baseball team threw away their chance at winning their first World Series since 1948 by wasting a 3-1 series lead and losing in seven. The Cubs won Game 5 at Wrigley Field before returning to Progressive Field for Games 6 and 7. The latter is one of the great games in baseball history, as Rajai Davis hit a game-tying two-run home run off Aroldis Chapman in the eighth inning to send the game into extras. A brief 17-minute rain delay halted the contest, and when play resumed, the Cubs scored twice in the tenth to re-take the lead. Cleveland threatened in the bottom half of the frame, scoring one run but ultimately falling short, as Cubs fans finally experienced the joy of a title.
2012 NLCS: Giants over Cardinals
The Giants completed a 3-1 comeback en route to their second title in three years. They did it in particularly impressive fashion with shutouts in Games 5 and 7 to go along with a 6-1 win in Game 6. As far as strategies go, allowing just one run over three games with your backs against the wall is a pretty good one. All told, San Francisco outscored St. Louis 20-1 in the comeback. Former Met Great Marco Scutaro nabbed NLCS MVP honors as he tied the LCS record with 14 hits.
2007 ALCS: Red Sox over Cleveland
Three years after they would complete the most iconic comeback in sports history, Boston completed a less-heralded comeback by toppling Cleveland in seven games after trailing 3-1. They outscored their opponent 30-5 over those final three games, and, like the Giants in 2012, would go on to sweep their way through the World Series against an over-matched Rockies team.
2004 ALCS: Red Sox over Yankees
To date, this remains only instance in baseball history where a team erased a 3-0 series deficit. It very well may never happen again, though it almost did (as previously mentioned) in 2020. Eventual ALCS MVP David Ortiz had walk offs in both Games 4 and Game 5 at Fenway following a 19-8 drubbing in Game 3. Game 6 was the infamous Curt Schilling “bloody sock” game. By that point, the runaway train had left the station, and the Yankees stood no chance in Game 7 as they were throttled 10-3. Doing this was impressive enough, but closing it out in such convincing fashion at Yankee Stadium was even better.
2003 NLCS: Marlins over Cubs
This series will forever be known for the Bartman incident, much like the 1986 World Series will always be known for Bill Buckner’s error. Like the ‘86 World Series, there was much more blame to go around than Cubs fans would like to dole out. For example, Mark Prior’s wild pitch, Alex Gonzalez’s error, and the eight runs in total that Chicago’s pitching staff allowed are often forgotten when Cubs fans bring up this game (incidentally, Prior is now the Dodgers’ pitching coach). Also like the ‘86 World Series, there was another game to play, and they could have gone out there and won the game to make the Bartman incident a non-factor. Of course, the Marlins would go on to win Games 6 and 7 at Wrigley en route to a World Series title, while the Cubs would have to wait 13 more years to finally experience the glory of a World Series win.
1996 NLCS: Braves over Cardinals
If you thought St. Louis being outscored 20-1 in the final three games in 2012 was bad, they were outscored 32-1 in games 5-7 of this series. The 90’s Braves, as many of us of that era could attest, were relentless. The Braves closed the series out with a 15-0 romp at home in Game 7 to clinch their second consecutive NL Pennant. They would go on to win Games 1 and 2 of the World Series before dropping four straight.
1986 ALCS: Red Sox over Angels
This series featured probably the most famous Game 5 played in any of the series mentioned on this list. The Angels, who were looking to earn their first trip to the Fall Classic, carried a 5-2 lead into the ninth at home, but two-run homers from Don Baylor and Dave Henderson gave Boston a 6-5 lead against California. While the Angels would tie it in the ninth, the Red Sox would take the lead for good in the 11th. They would rout the Angels in Games 6 and 7 at Fenway Park to punch their ticket to the World Series where, of course, they would lose to the Mets in seven in another iconic series.
1985 World Series: Royals over Cardinals
1985 ALCS: Royals over Blue Jays
The 1985 Royals remain the only team to complete two 3-1 comebacks in the same year (they trailed each series 2-0 as well). First, they stunned Toronto in the first ever best-of-7 LCS by taking Game 5 2-0 before winning the final two games in Toronto. George Brett, who hit three homers in the series, earned MVP honors. They then did the same thing to St. Louis, who are frequent entrants onto this list. They stole Game 5 in St. Louis before returning home to win a close Game 6, 2-1, and a not-so-close Game 7 (11-0). Bret Saberhagen earned MVP honors this time around.
1979 World Series: Pirates over Orioles
Pittsburgh won their last of five world titles by erasing a 3-1 deficit in 1979 to defeat Baltimore. It was their second title of the decade after winning in 1971. They won the final two games at Memorial Stadium in Baltimore, 4-0 and 4-1. Future Hall of Famer Willie Stargell earned MVP honors after hitting three homers to lead the Pirates.
1968 World Series: Tigers over Cardinals
The poor Cardinals just can’t stay off this list. The Cardinals lost Game 5, but had Games 6 and 7 at home. They lost those games by a combined 13-2 score. It was the Tigers’ third world title in franchise history.
1958 World Series: Yankees over (Milwaukee) Braves
In a rematch of the 1957 World Series, the Yankees avenged that loss and earned their sixth (and final) title of the 50’s by coming back from a 3-1 series deficit. They won Game 5 in the Bronx via shutout before heading to Milwaukee to win Games 6 and 7. They won Game 6 4-3 in ten innings, and won Game 7 6-2 on the strength of a four-spot in the eighth inning.
1925 World Series: Pirates over Washington Senators
The Pirates became the first North American sports team to mount a comeback when trailing a postseason series 3-1, as they took home the second World Series title in franchise history. To top it off, they had to mount a comeback in each of the final three games, trailing after the first inning in each one. In Game 7, they fell behind 4-0 after one but scored two in the seventh and three in the eight to secure a series-clinching 9-7 victory.
All that is to say that, while difficult, a 3-1 deficit isn’t an impossible obstacle. On its face, it is simply winning three straight games, and New York is 1⁄3 of the way there already. This season, the Mets had eight streaks of at least three straight wins, including a streak of nine, a streak of seven, and a streak of six. The latter included two straight wins at Dodger Stadium back in April, which is the task ahead of the Mets at the moment. The Dodgers, meanwhile, had losing streaks of three on three separate occasions in 2024, including a five-game losing skid. The Mets will look to etch their place in baseball history with wins on Sunday and, if that happens, on Monday.