Here we are on January 13, with pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training in less than a month, and Pete Alonso still doesn’t have a contract.
It’s not what the slugging first baseman expected from his market. Alonso, 30, hit .240 with 34 home runs and a 122 wRC+ in 2024, though his .788 OPS dipped from ’23’s mark of .821. In his six MLB seasons, all with the New York Mets, Alonso is a .249 hitter with 226 home runs. He was the 2019 Rookie of the Year and set an MLB rookie record with 53 home runs.
And yet, Pete Alonso remains unsigned. Forget the long-term deal worth in excess of $200 million. Multiple sources report the four-time All-Star’s camp, in a rare role reversal, submitted a short-term, opt-out laden deal to the Mets.
And as of right now, with the first players reporting in just four short weeks, Pete Alonso is no closer to a new contract. The market is quiet and no further suitors have emerged.
In which case, advantage New York Mets.
Pete Alonso can certainly sock the baseball over the fence but, as always, that comes with its downsides in baseball. He doesn’t chase bad pitches regularly, but still swings and misses quite a bit. Alonso’s whiff rate (Whiff%) in 2024 was in the 48th percentile, and his strikeout rate (K%) was in the 30th.
Granted, home run hitters strike out a lot by default, but Alonso is also a streaky hitter anyway. Teams don’t want to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in someone so home run-or-bust.
What’s more, Pete Alonso’s glove at first base is very much the proverbial black hole. His fielding run value (FRV) in 2024 was -6 and sits at -18 for his career. He posted -9 outs above average (OAA). Who wants to pay a pure power eventual DH that kind of money?
In which case, advantage New York Mets.
Pete Alonso returning to Flushing seems not a matter of if, but when at this point. It’s a fate more inevitable than Thanos himself. The Astros were linked to him at one point, but then inked three-time Gold Glove Christian Walker for three years and $60 million. Quite the payday, considering Walker is already 34 years old.
That could very well be the difference. How much is Pete Alonso actually worth? His glove is a liability. He has great raw power, but there’s no telling whether he’ll ride the Mendoza Line or manage to hang around .250 or more in a given year. The market for hitters is pretty shallow, and it’s pretty obvious what teams think of Pete Alonso; he’s talented, but not BIG big money talented.
In which case, advantage New York Mets.
Look at it this way. Every day that Pete Alonso goes unsigned ups the Mets’ odds of re-signing him. His price tag also drops accordingly, which helps even the deepest pockets like Steve Cohen’s.
Something has to give at some point. Pete Alonso is going to get his multi-year contract, but certainly not what he was expecting. More likely he signs for three years and $75 million. Practically a bargain!
But here we are, with a near-silent market and a star slugger still looking for a home. The crossroads is fast approaching and Alonso has to make his decision.
Down one path is holding out and risking signing too close to Opening Day, a la Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery last year. Down the other is one where Alonso gets serious and hammers out a short but fair deal with the Mets, the only team he’s ever known.
Anyone with eyes can see that the free agency market took a look at Pete Alonso and made its pitch.
Now, it’s on him to decide if he wants to swing.
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