How will Opening Day’s team shake out?
With the first spring training games happening later this week, the Mets are just beginning to evaluate the players that are competing in camp. However, despite the fact that I am not in Port St. Lucie nor a scout in any way, I’m going to take my best guess at how the Mets’ roster will look come opening day in Houston.
Outfield
The Mets’ starting three in the outfield seems pretty set in stone, with Brandon Nimmo ensconced in left field, the man of the offseason Juan Soto in right, and Jose Siri getting most of the reps in center. Tyrone Taylor will be the fourth outfielder who will be competing with Siri for playing time in center and spelling the others on occassion.
Technically, both parts of the designated hitter platoon – Starling Marte and Jesse Winker – can play the outfield but both, especially Marte, has seen their defense somewhat fall off a clip, and so will likely see very little playing time in the field this season if all goes well.
Infield
With Pete Alonso’s return to the fold now official, the Mets’ infield will look fairly similar to how it did late last season, with Alonso at first, Jeff McNeil at second base, Francisco Lindor manning shortstop, and Mark Vientos at third base.
The Mets likely need to keep two bench spots open for infielders, but really should only waste one spot on that, but the redundancy of Winker and Marte throws this for a loop. Expect to see someone who can play some shortstop to occasionally spell Lindor, as well as someone who can log time at the corners. While it would be nice to let Luisangel Acuña play every day in Triple-A, there really isn’t a better option to be the backup shortstop on the Mets’ 40-Man Roster. As for the other bench spot, while I would like to see what Jared Young is bringing to the table, it seems more likely that the major league contract Nick Madrigal signed means he will be their primary backup infielder.
Catcher
Despite a down year after a thumb injury, Francisco Alvarez is going to be the starting catcher for the Mets, as he should be. Alvarez is still young for the league, was battling a nagging injury next season, and has shown more than enough to keep the Mets’ confidence behind the dish. Luis Torrens will be backing him up, coming off a perfectly cromulent performance in that role last year.
Starting Pitching
The injury to Frankie Montas throws a bit of a question into the Mets’ starting five going into the season. If the Mets’ rotation were more conventionally constructed, they would not need a fifth starter until April 15th, due to an off-day after the first, second, and fourth series of the season. However, with Clay Holmes making the transition to starting pitcher and Kodai Senga both recovering from injury and pitching most of his career with an extra day of rest, the Mets may look to get everyone a little extra rest and come north with five starters.
If that’s the case, joining Holmes and Senga in the rotation will certainly be left-handers Sean Manaea and David Peterson. The fifth spot right now looks to be a bit of an open competition, but based on how things have shaken out over the past four years, one would assume that Tylor Megill would get the first crack at the spot, unless someone like Griffin Canning. Paul Blackburn, or Max Kranick had an absolutely lights-out spring.
Relief Pitching
This is always the most volatile part of roster construction, and the only area where there are multiple questions in play. Locked in are the returning closer Edwin Díaz, recently re-signed Ryne Stanek, and the newly inked lefty A.J. Minter. It seems likely that José Buttó, now without minor league options remaining, will also hold down a spot in the bullpen. Based on last year’s performances, Reed Garrett and Dedniel Nuñez both seem to have a roster spot to lose. Beyond that, there are a lot of options for the final spot, as well as some who may not be on the roster yet. Of the currently signed and healthy folks, Huascar Brazobán got some playing time last year, but struggled mightily in his limited playing time. Danny Young would give the Mets a second lefty out of the bullpen, but fell apart in September. Names like Kevin Herget, Sean Reid-Foley, Austin Warren, and Justin Hagenman will all be tossed around, but there isn’t a slam dunk frontrunner at the moment. We’ll see who really wilds out over the next six weeks.
Wild Cards
I actually think the most likely outcome is that the final bullpen spot is from someone not currently on the 40-Man Roster, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the backup shortstop also not currently be in the organization, especially if José Iglesias continues his press tour of essentially begging for a job back. But aside from the final bench spot and the last bullpen spot, the only real question remains whether the Mets feel confident with their starting pitching depth having to carry them through the first two to three months of the season. If not, a trade for a starter would possibly impact more than just the rotation, depending on who was included in the deal. It would be very nice to have an extra bullpen arm, but unless someone like Marte is traded, the Mets’ bench is not particularly optimized to lose a player. If Iglesias re-signed, his combination of defensive prowess and offensive potential would allow the Mets to start start Acuña in Triple-A and trade Madrigal for a bag of balls, but that seems unlikely. So as the roster stands right now, the Mets would be carrying a seven-man bullpen, a five-man bench, five starters, the starting eight fielders, and a DH. However, I would think that something happens to bring that bench down to four (like a trade of Marte) and a signing of a still-available relief pitcher to close out the roster (Andrew Chafin is still available and could be interesting?). But since those aren’t the reality at the moment, I present the Mets’ hypothetical Opening Day roster:
- Brandon Nimmo
- Juan Soto
- Jose Siri
- Tyrone Taylor
- Starling Marte
- Jesse Winker
- Pete Alonso
- Jeff McNeil
- Francisco Lindor
- Mark Vientos
- Luisangel Acuña
- Nick Madrigal
- Francisco Alvarez
- Luis Torrens
- Clay Holmes
- Kodai Senga
- Sean Manaea
- David Peterson
- Tylor Megill
- Edwin Díaz
- Ryne Stanek
- A.J. Minter
- José Butto
- Reed Garrett
- Dedniel Nuñez
- Kevin Herget