Sean Manaea was a big signing for the Mets. After his success in 2024, is he ready to be an ace in the Big Apple?
Three years and $75 million was enough to keep Manaea as a Met after he opted out of the contract he signed last year. The contract was much deserved, too; a career year saw him throw 181.2 innings at a 3.47 ERA, where both figures are career bests. However, it wasn’t all plain sailing for Manaea. Much like the Mets, it was a year of two halves for the 32-year-old.
Could Sean Manaea Become the Ace Pitcher for New York Mets?
A Tale Of Two Halves
You all know the story by now. Sean Manaea lowered his arm angle in his 21st start of the season and became a new pitcher. His ERA dropped from 3.74 in the first 20 to 3.08 in the last 12. Perhaps more damning is that of the 2.8 fWAR he earned in 2024, 1.7 was in those previous 12 starts. The Mets and Manaea struck gold by lowering the arm slot and also by reintroducing his sinker. This was an apparent effort from the start of the season as he consistently threw sinkers backed up with a sweeper, a combination becoming very popular throughout the MLB.
The sinker, though, didn’t thrive until the change. Originally rated as seventeen percent below average by Stuff+, it jumped to five percent above average in the last two months, making it the fourth-best sinker in the MLB by Stuff+. Despite the obvious loss in vertical movement, such an elite sinker gave his off-speed pitches far more value. His sweeper alone gained 0.94 runs per 100 pitches in the last two months, from -0.49 wSL/C before to 0.45 wSL/C after. With his changeup gaining a mammoth 2.73 runs, from -2.08 wCH/C before to 0.65 after.
There is far more to say about this revelation, but equally as importantly, we must consider his future. As fun as wCH/C is to look at, its year-to-year correlation is under 0.25. In simple terms, what Sean Manaea will we see next year?
An Ace Or Not The Case?
Due to his 2024 success and the sizable contract received, many have Manaea down as the number one in this Mets rotation. Many, though, worry about how repeatable his last twelve games were.
He did have a higher xERA of 3.75 over the year, but with an elite shortstop in Francisco Lindor behind you, it would be hard not to. That being said, he doesn’t produce huge amounts of ground balls. 37.8% in 2024 and 40.2% in the final 12 games are below average, especially for a guy who uses his sinker 44.5% of the time. It would be unfair to say this number must be increased to be successful, but more balls hit at Lindor is never bad for a pitcher.
The real positives for Manaea lie in the struggles hitters had hit the ball hard. In the last 12 games, Manaea has a 5.9 Barrel% and a 32.4 HardHit%, which would have placed him 7th and 3rd among starters with over 450 batted ball events. These are much better stats to predict a pitcher’s future success. Barrel% is one of the best stats to predict next season’s wOBA (+0.38 correlation), which is often seen as the most complete offensive stat to compare players.
Despite these positive signs, Steamer projections are down a lot on Manaea. 181 innings for an ERA of 4.01, a big regression from the last 12 games. This jump appears to have come due to a career-low BABIP of .245 regressing to .287. This gave him the 4th lowest BABIP of qualified starters. Ultimately, these are statistics with the consensus of being unsustainable. However, he had a 16.3 LD% through the last 12 games. This would’ve ranked him 3rd in the MLB amongst qualified starters. You can argue that this is the basis for predicting a lower BABIP; 70% of line drives are hit.
Conclusion
When naming aces in the MLB, Manaea would not come to the mind of most. However, the Mets may have just created their own. Only 2025 can tell us if $75 million is a bargain or if those 12 games were just a flash of brilliance.
Main Photo Credits: Brad Penner-Imagn Images
The post Could Sean Manaea Become the Ace Pitcher for New York Mets? appeared first on Last Word On Baseball.