The left-hander enjoyed his best season in the big leagues in 2024 and is all but guaranteed a spot in the rotation.
David Peterson entered the 2024 season as something of an afterthought. He completed his 2023 campaign with a career-high in innings pitched (111.0) and strikeouts (128), but despite the heightened workload, he remained an enigma, posting 5.03 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in 27 appearances (21 starts).
Following that season, he underwent hip surgery and was expected to miss the beginning of the 2024 season. Beyond a stellar rookie campaign in 2020 which saw him post a 1.6 bWAR and a 3.44 ERA across nine starts, he’s been hard to pin down in the three years that followed, posting a 4.70 ERA in 70 appearances (55 starts) with a 0.9 bWAR over that span.
Peterson enters the 2025 season following his best season in the majors with essentially a guaranteed spot in the Mets’ rotation. The 29-year-old was one of the team’s most consistent starters, pitching to a career-bests in ERA (2.90), BB/9 (3.4), and HR/9 (0.6), and bWAR (2.9), by far his best performance since 2020. For a player who has has logged a number of miles traveling back and forth to Syracuse, Peterson has seemingly secured himself a permanent locker spot at Citi Field with his performance.
As previously mentioned, Peterson underwent hip surgery in November 2023 following his subpar campaign. The lefty would have to wait until the end of May last year to finally make his mark. He made his season debut against the Dodgers, allowing three runs (two earned) over five innings in his debut—incidentally, this is the game that would become known for Jorge Lopez hurling his glove into the stands, immediately being cut, and Francisco Lindor calling a players-only meeting to right the ship. His arrival coincided with the team’s mid-season turnaround, and while it was Grimace and OMG and Lindor’s leadership that was on full display, his steady work every five days alongside the team’s veteran core of Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and José Quintana—each of whom were having great seasons of their own—gave the Mets one of the best rotations in the National League and helped them climb back into the playoff race.
Peterson would earn wins in each of his next three starts, and five of his next eight through July 22. To that point, he owned a 3.14 ERA in 48 2⁄3 innings, though his FIP sat at 4.81 and his WHIP was 1.48. He struggled in his next start, picking up a loss against the Braves after giving up four runs over five innings. But Peterson was undeterred and follow up his first defeat of the year with his best month of the season. The left-hander was one of the best starting pitcher in the NL that month, posting a 1.86 ERA, a 3.45 FIP, and a 1.11 WHIP in 38 2⁄3 innings across six starts. Among all NL starters, only Zack Wheeler (1.62) and Blake Snell (1.64) posted a better ERA for the month. And maybe just as important, besides Wheeler (39.0), no starter pitched more innings in the month than Peterson.
His September was more of a mixed bag, as he alternated good starts and bad starts during the month, He began where he left off in August, striking out a season-high 11 while hurling six innings of one-run ball to defeat the Red Sox. After a subpar outing and loss to the Blue Jays, he stymied the Phillies over 7 2⁄3 innings of one-run ball, though the Mets would go on to lose that pitcher’s duel. He followed his longest outing of the year with his shortest, as he lasted just 3 2⁄3 innings in his next start to those same Phillies as he absorbed his third loss of 2024. However, in his final regular season start of 2024, he hurled seven shutout innings against the Brewers, which was a pivotal game to get them to Atlanta the next day with a chance to clinch a playoff spot (which, as we know now, they would thanks to Lindor’s heroics).
Peterson’s strong showing in the regular season earned him plenty of opportunities to pitch in October—he had made two appearances during the club’s brief 2022 run, appearing in each of New York’s defeats in that Wild Card Series and allowing one run in his two outings against the Padres. This time around, he got to pitch the ninth inning of Game 3 against Milwaukee following Pete Alonso’s dramatic home run, shutting the door on the Brewers, earning his first career save, and propelling the Mets to the NLDS. He would then go on to pitch three scoreless innings of one-hit ball out of the pen in Game 1 against Philadelphia, and toss 2 1⁄3 shutout innings in Game 4, while picking up the victory in the deciding game of the NLDS.
He would, unfortunately, not fare as well against the mighty Dodgers in the NLCS. In the Game 1 loss, he entered in the third inning and would allow three runs (two earned) over 2 1⁄3 innings. He would finally get his first postseason start in Game 5, lasting just 3 2⁄3 innings and allowing two earned runs on six hits and four walks, though he pitched just well enough to extend New York’s season back to Los Angeles, where it would end in Game 6.
In terms of changes to Peterson’s game, the big difference between 2024 and his previous campaigns was his sinker usage, which increased considerably last season. According to his Brooks Baseball profile, between 2020 and 2023 he only used his sinker 20% of the time while primarily relying on his four-seem fastball 32% of the time (and his slider 24% of the time). Those percentages shifted considerably in 2024, with Peterson using his sinker 32% of the time, his four-seamer 26% oft he time, and his slider just 17% of the time. As a result, over half of the balls put in play against Peterson were hit on the ground. In addition, he had the lowest HR/9 of his career, as mentioned, and also the lowest HR/FB of his career, as it dropped from 21.1% in 2023 to 7.8% in 2024. Lastly, there was also less hard contact against him, as he posted the lowest Hard% of his career (30.6%).
On the negative side, the one thing that might lead you to question just how sustainable his success was is his expected ERA (xERA). While he posted the best ERA of his career, his xERA was a much less palatable 4.59. That was the largest gap between his ERA and xERA since his rookie 2020 season (3.44 vs. 4.39), which leads you to question whether we will see a bit of a regression in 2025, or whether his ability to produce results will remain this season.
Peterson will get plenty opportunities to prove his season was no fluke, as he will enter the season as either the team’s fourth or fifth starter. When interviewed at Amazin’ Day, he made it clear he wants to be a starter in 2025. He solidified that desire with a strong season, and with the Mets planning to employ a six-man rotation, there’s no reason to believe Peterson won’t be in those plans if he remains healthy. He’s a middle-of-the-rotation arm that the Mets can feel comfortable with if he continues to build upon his stellar season.