The Braves were plagued by injuries in 2024, but a healthy Atlanta team will be well positioned to take back the division
By most measures, the Braves had a solid 2024 season. They were one of 12 teams to make the MLB postseason and finished with a very respectable 89 wins—the same win total as the Mets, as it happens. However, after finishing first in the NL East for six straight years, they saw their streak come to an end and had to scratch and claw their way into the postseason, clinching a berth on the final day of the regular season. They bowed out unceremoniously in the NL Wild Card round, falling 4-0 and 5-4 to the Padres in their lone two playoff games.
Atlanta entered 2024 as the consensus pick to win their seventh straight NL East title, but a barrage of injuries to some key contributors sunk their chances of a seventh straight division crown. Most notably, Spencer Strider, coming off an All Star campaign and a fourth place finish in NL Cy Young Award voting, made just two starts before undergoing season-ending surgery. The injury woes compiled in May, when Ronald Acuña Jr. tore his ACL for the second time in his career and would go on to miss the remainder of the season. Injuries compounded from there, including lingering injuries to Austin Riley that eventually led to him being shut down for the season; despite all that, Atlanta was able to battle their way into the postseason, even if they never really seriously threatened for the NL East title.
When we last saw the Braves, Francisco Lindor was hitting one of the most iconic home runs in Mets history to send the Mets into the postseason, with Atlanta winning the back half of that bizarre season-finishing doubleheader to punch their ticket to the postseason. Atlanta had a relatively quiet offseason in terms of high-impact signings, but they lost some familiar faces, including some key contributors to their 2021 World Series-winning club. The most notable loss was Max Fried, who departed from the Yankees on an eight-year deal, leaving a big hole at the top of their rotation. Old friend Travis d’Arnaud also left for the Angels, while A.J. Minter signed with the Mets. The club also said goodbye to Jorge Soler, Charlie Morton, Tyler Matzek, and Eddie Rosario.
Atlanta mostly looked to improve their team through minor league deals with spring training invites, adding some former big names like Craig Kimbrel and Hector Neris to fight for a spot in their pen. Old friends James McCann, Jake Marisnick, and Chasen Shreve also joined on minor league deals, as did Chad Kuhl, Dylan Covey, Garrett Cooper, and Buck Farmer to provide depth. The Braves only dished out one multi-year deal to a free agent, signing Jurickson Profar on a three-year contract (they also extended Reynaldo Lopez for three years). The club recently brought in Alex Verdugo on a one-year deal.
All that is to say the core of the Braves’ roster remains relatively unchanged, and the club will still rely on the usual suspects to get them where they need to be. They come into 2025 with lofty expectations, especially with a lot of their stars are primed to return. Acuña Jr. is slowly working his way back and should start the year on the IL. Strider has already impressed in spring and figures to be back sooner than later as well. For the Braves, not having these two players back for Opening Day is not a huge deal, as they’re almost certainly willing to trade their presence in April/May for them being fully healthy for the heat of the playoff race.
The Braves continue to sport one of the most fearsome lineups in the sport, and once Acuña Jr. returns, it figures to be up there with the best. Their infield—Matt Olson (1B), Ozzie Albies (2B), Orlando Arcia (SS), and Austin Riley (3B)—is one of the most fearsome in baseball, but they will really need guys like Olson and Riley to return to their pre-2024 form in order to get back to the top of the NL East. Sean Murphy is already on the shelf behind the plate, which means top prospect Drake Baldwin will get a chance to show what he’s made of early on. While they wait for Acuña Jr. to return, the club has Michael Harris II patroling center with Profar and Jarred Kelenic on the corners. Profar is also expected to take over the leadoff spot in the interim. And things are brought together with Marcell Ozuna, who is coming off his best season as the team’s Designated Hitter.
While the lineup is clearly the team’s biggest strength, the rotation is really interesting and could be a huge strength for the team even without Fried. A lot of it depends on when Strider returns and how close he is to his elite form. Chris Sale is coming off a Cy Young win that nobody saw coming, and he rightfully earned the top billing in the team’s rotation. However, age and his lengthy injury history remain a concern as he tries to replicate his 2024 success. Beyond Sale and Strider, the club has the recently-extended Lopez and Spencer Schwellenbach, the latter of whom absolutely tormented the Mets during his terrific rookie season. Behind those four, the club has some guys competing for spots in the rotation, including Grant Holmes, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Bryce Elder. In terms of Atlanta’s bullpen, Raisel Iglesias will once again be called upon to close out games, with Dylan Lee, Aaron Bummer, and Pierce Johnson likely being entrusted with high leverage situations.
The Braves are projected to win 93 games and take back the NL East crown according to PECOTA’s projections, while ZiPS’ projections has them winning 89 games and tying for the top spot in the NL East—they do hold a slight edge over Philadelphia here to win the division. Health will be the biggest wild card for the Braves this year, as they can truly run away with the division or find themselves in third place battling for their postseason lives. Given their lineup, as well as the plethora of talent in their rotation and bullpen, it’s hard to bet against them, but the Phillies and Mets can equally claim that their talent should make them the division favorites. All of this is sure to make the NL East one of, if not the most interesting, division race in MLB.