If the Mets don’t bring back Pete Alonso, they could look for a new everyday third baseman.
Whether or not the Mets will look to bring in an everyday third baseman over the course of this offseason hinges upon the team’s approach to first baseman Pete Alonso. If the team brings him back, it would presumably have little interest in bringing in a corner infielder, but if not, there figures to be a strong chance of moving Mark Vientos to first to open up third for such a player.
Alex Bregman could fit that bill. Heading into his age-31 season next year, the third baseman figures to get a fairly big contract. Over at FanGraphs, the median crowdsourced estimate projects a six-year, $162 million deal for the longtime Astro.
It looks pretty certain that Bregman’s peak years came in 2018 and 2019, as he racked up an impressive 7.9 fWAR and 8.3 fWAR in those seasons, respectively. His combination of good defense at the hot corner and a cumulative .291/.409/.561 line with a 157 OPS+ over those two years made him one of the best players in the game. He earned MVP votes in both of them, finishing second in 2019.
Since then, Bregman’s been very good, but he hasn’t put up a single season that’s come close to matching either of those two. Since the beginning of the 2020 season, he’s hit .261/.350/.445 with a 122 OPS+. In the four full seasons during that span, he’s finished with fWARs of 2.1, 5.4, 4.5, and 4.1. So he’s been pretty consistent outside of that down year in 2021.
In each of the past two seasons, Bregman’s started the season cold before heating up and finishing with pretty respectable numbers at the plate. But he has seen his production dip somewhat significantly in each of the past two years.
In the short term, though, Bregman is still one of the best third basemen in the game. He finished with 6 out above average (OAA) in 2024 per Statcast, and while that wasn’t the best defensive year he’s ever had, it did win him his first Gold Glove. And over the past two seasons, Bregman ranks fifth among qualified third baseman with a 122 wRC+. José Ramírez (131 wRC+), Rafael Devers (129 wRC+), Isaac Paredes (126 wRC+), and Austin Riley (123 wRC+) have been better at the plate, but Bregman trails only Ramírez in fWAR.
Those numbers emphasize just how good Mark Vientos was at the plate this year with his 133 wRC+, but he’d obviously have to keep up that level of hitting to establish himself as one of the players in that group. And while offense at first base was down in a big way in 2024, Vientos would have to match or exceed his level of production from this year to be among the best-hitting first basemen should he move across the infield.
The Mets’ main target is reportedly Juan Soto, but it’ll be interesting to see what else they do whether they end up signing Soto or not. And the organization has potential candidates for third base in Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio, each of whom carries a big question mark—the ability to hit major league pitching for Baty and health plus a short big league rack record of modest success for Mauricio—heading into next year.