Holmes was an All-Star in 2024 but lost the closer’s role in September.
Of all the available free agents, Clay Holmes experienced perhaps the most puzzling 2024 season. To start, he appeared untouchable. To end, he lost favor with Yankees’ skipper Aaron Boone and was relegated to a lesser role as the team made its march to the World Series. Thus is the life of a relief pitcher, the most notoriously fickle position in MLB.
For the better part of three major league seasons, Holmes was one of the best closers in the sport. A former ninth round pick with the Pirates, he was traded to the Yankees in 2021 after failing to impress in Pittsburgh. He immediately flourished in the Bronx, posting a 1.61 ERA in 28.0 innings following his arrival. For reference, he had pitched to a 5.57 ERA over 119 2⁄3 innings across parts of four seasons with the Pirates.
This change of scenery proved fortuitous for his future major league prospects, as he started to shine in his new locale. After an impressive showing in 2021, he assumed the closer’s role in May 2022 when Aroldis Chapman landed on the injured list. It was a role he would not relinquish—well, until this past season—as the right-hander went on to set the franchise record by compiling 29 consecutive scoreless relief outings, besting the mark set by Mariano Rivera in 1999. Holmes earned his first All Star Game nod in 2022 and finished the year with a 1.4 bWAR, a 2.54 ERA, a 2.84 FIP, and a 1.02 WHIP, recording 20 saves (in 25 chances) while striking out 65 and walking 20 in 63 2⁄3 innings. He followed that up by posting a career-best 1.8 bWAR in 2023, posting a 2.86 ERA, a 2.65 FIP, and a 1.18 WHIP while saving 24 games (in 27 chances), striking out 71, and walking 23 in 63 innings pitched.
His 2024 was much more of a mixed bag than his previous two seasons. He started out with a bang, pitching well into May before allowing his first earned run. He allowed three unearned runs in a blown save on April 3, but he wouldn’t allow his first earned runs (four, to be exact) until May 20. That bumped his era up from a spotless 0.00 to a still-flashy 1.74. He went almost a full month until he allowed his next two earned runs on June 13—again, bumping his ERA up from 1.23 to 1.80—but things began to unravel for Holmes from this point onward.
Starting on June 13, he pitched to a 4.81 ERA, a 3.73 FIP, and a 1.37 WHIP with 39 strikeouts (26.5% K%) and 14 walks (9.5% BB%) across 33 2⁄3 innings. He ended the year with a league-high 13 blown saves, with 10 of them coming in those final 37 outings. He relinquished the closer’s role on September 3 following a blown save to the Rangers which culminated in a walk-off grand slam. He did pitch respectably post-demotion and into the postseason.
He did some of his best work in the postseason as the team reached the World Series. He pitched in each of the team’s four games against the Royals, scattering three hits and walking one while striking out three over five innings. His ALCS showing against the Guardians was a little more turbulent, as he served up the walk-off two-run homer to David Fry in Game 3 and gave up another run in Game 4. In all, he surrendered three earned runs in 2 2⁄3 innings while allowing allowing four hits, walking two, and striking out three. He was at his best in the World Series against the Dodgers, appearing in all five games of the Fall Classic and pitching 4 1⁄3 shutout innings. He gave up just one hit in the series while walking two and striking out six. He also picked up the lone win for the Yankees in the series.
There’s a good chance Holmes will find a new home this offseason, especially with Luke Weaver’s emergence as a closer for the Yankees towards the tail end of the season, and there has not been a lot of talk around Holmes possibly returning to the Bronx. Holmes will likely garner some interest as a closer but could also seek opportunities in a set-up role, which is where he would need to land for the Mets to explore signing him.
At the moment, Fangraphs’ Median Crowdsource number estimates that Holmes will receive a two-year deal with an AAV of $10 million. As we’ve already seen early this winter—and we saw dating back to last offseason—Stearns typically likes to focus on volume when bringing in relievers, adding multiple pitchers to compete for available spots.
As such, it’s unclear if Holmes will be on their radar, but given his success in New York over the past few seasons, they should (and probably will) do their due diligence on the two-time All Star. Edwin Díaz is assured the closer’s role in 2025 and beyond, but the team doesn’t have many established options behind him, and will need to acquire a few dependable arms this winter to compete with the relievers currently added to the roster. With his track record, familiarity pitching in New York, and his solid postseason performance, Holmes could be one of those potential guys.