Juan Soto’s decision will dictate a lot of what the Mets do this winter.
Since his debut in 2018, Juan Soto has been, at worst, a top-five position player in all of baseball. That’s not an exaggeration: Since Opening Day 2018, Soto is fifth among all position players with a 36.3 fWAR, trailing only Aaron Judge (42.6), Mookie Betts (41.0), current Mets superstar Francisco Lindor (39.3), and José Ramírez (37.7). He also has the second-best wRC+ (158) in that span, behind only Judge. And now, he is easily the most coveted free agent in the sport, and especially by Steve Cohen, David Stearns, and the Mets.
Michael Drago expertly argued why Soto should be priority number one for the team, and signing him is an opportunity the Mets can’t pass up. Plus-one on everything he said. Soto should, and probably will, be the centerpiece of everything the club attempts to do this winter, and because of the hype and interest in his free agency, a lot of what the team can and will do centers around what Soto does—and when he does it. So let’s examine why Soto makes sense, and how the road ahead is shaping up for the Amazins.
At the age of 26, Soto has already written an impressive resume. He debuted with the Nationals in 2018 as a 19-year old, completing his rookie campaign with a .292/.406/.517 slash line, a 146 wRC+, and a 3.7 fWAR and finishing second in National League Rookie of the Year voting to Ronald Acuña Jr. In his sophomore season, he won a World Series title, helping Washington beat the Astros in seven games, and he finished ninth in NL MVP voting. In a shortened 2020 campaign, he put together perhaps his finest season, winning the batting title (.351) while also leading the league in OBP (.490), SLG (.695), OPS (1.185), and wRC+ (202). He ended up fifth in NL MVP voting and won the first of three consecutive Silver Sluggers. The next year, he again led the league in OBP (.465) and finished second to Bryce Harper in NL MVP voting.
It’s important to remember he was just 23 years old at the end of 2021. Soto’s free agency saga really began in earnest around this point. Ahead of the 2022 MLB season. Soto turned down a 15-year, $440 million contract to stay with the Nationals, which led many to speculate Soto would become MLB’s first $500 million-plus player. Shohei Ohtani would become first to that distinction, albeit with a first-of-its-kind deferred deal.
With no future in Washington, Soto was dealt to the Padres mid-season for a package of prospects that are just now starting to break into the majors. He completed a strong season in San Diego, leading the Padres to the NLCS before losing to the Phillies in five games.
He remained with San Diego for the 2023 season, putting together another solid All-Star campaign that saw him finish sixth in NL MVP voting. The Padres then dealt him to the Yankees, where he made his fourth consecutive All-Star team and reached the World Series for the second time in his career. He finished the year with a very respectable .288/.419/.569 slash line, a career-high 41 homers and 128 runs scored, and a career-best 8.1 fWAR. His 180 wRC+ was also his second-best mark in a single season and his best in a full 162-game campaign. With the Yankees, he formed a terrifying tandem with Judge atop the lineup.
It became clear early on that Soto had no interest in signing an extension and would test free agent waters regardless. Immediately after the team’s World Series loss to the Dodgers, he announced that he was open to signing with any of the 30 major league teams, and while there are obviously some teams that won’t explore his services—to be clear, any team that is serious about winning should be in on Soto—there are only a handful that can realistically willing to offer the deal he is going to command.
That brings us to the Mets. They have the richest owner in the sport, and one who is clearly motivated after an unexpectedly great season that saw his club finish two wins shy of the National League pennant. There is no quicker way to make a splash than to sign a generational talent who easily tops the current free agent class.
He also fits a need, as the club has a couple of vacancies in the outfield, with only Brandon Nimmo assured a starting role next year. While his defense leaves a lot to be desired—despite being a finalist for a Gold Glove award this year—Soto’s offense alone would be a game-changer. And, truth be told, it’s unclear when another generation-defining superstar will enter the free agent market in the prime of his career and a willingness to sign with any team. In looking at future free agent classes, nobody’s name stands out as starkly as Soto’s.
Soto has not shown any signs of slowing and has a few peak years left ahead of him, which more than explains why the Mets have been linked to him from the onset of free agency, checking in pretty much from the moment the World Series ended. Steve Cohen is already planning a trip to meet with Soto, which is scheduled for next week.
As for the money itself, well it’s really up to our imagination how high this contract can go. But if we want to explore some possibilities, FanGraphs places the median crowdsource number for the contract at 13 years and an AAV of $45.0 million, resulting in a $585 million deal. That number truthfully feels low, as many execs around the game expect the number to start with a six—and possibly a seven. Similarly, many executives think it’s a two-horse race between the Yankees and the Mets, especially since Soto liked his time in New York with the Yankees. With Cohen eager to land the superstar and the Yankees eager to keep him away from the Mets, that is likely to drive the number beyond FanGraphs’ prediction. Despite that, it’s possible several other suitors will enter the sweepstakes and, at the very least, do their due diligence on the superstar.
The question then becomes: When will Soto make his decision? Both Jeff Passan and Buster Olney recently suggested on the Baseball Tonight podcast that this could come at the MLB Winter Meetings in early December. This would be critical, as an earlier decision will allow the Mets to proceed with the rest of their offseason plan. Should this drag much later than that, other players the Mets might be considering could already be off the market. But until then, Soto will likely remain the top priority, as the Mets will do everything in their power to not let the chance to sign a once-in-a-lifetime superstar pass.