A newer version of Harrison Bader, this time with power.
Setting aside the many lottery ticket pitchers that have already been signed to split deals, the Mets made their first major move of the offseason, acquiring CF Jose Siri from the Rays for RHP Eric Orze. Siri, 29, was caught up in the endless Rays shuffle, being pushed out by a younger player (Jonny Deluca will play CF for the Rays in 2025) the second he was due any real money.
Last year, the Mets paid $10M in free agency for Harrison Bader (initially an A-, adjusted to a B+), and they were rewarded with the quintessential Harrison Bader season; elite center field defense (95th percentile OAA per Statcast), middling offense, and a few nagging injuries along the way. That’s a useful player, though you’d love to be paying said payer less than that to free up money for other purposes.
Jose Siri will be sliding into that same role, and on the surface level it’s a seamless fit. Like Bader, Siri is an elite defender (99th percentile OAA). Like Bader, his overall offense is middling. The Mets will likely give Tyrone Taylor a slightly bigger portion of the playing time in 2025, but overall it seems like they’re set up for the same sort of defensive focused CF platoon they employed 2024.
There’s more to discuss under the hood here though. Offensively, Bader is pretty mediocre across the board, with a near-median 90th Percentile exit velocity, some good-but-not-great contact metrics, and a bad-but-not-horrible approach at the plate. Siri, by contrast, has a lot more sliders set to the extremes; he’s got the worst hit tool in the majors and a somewhat problematic amount of chase, but also has near-top-end damage on contact, good EVs, and a strong batted ball mix.
Two important takeaways. First, players with extreme skills are more leverageable than those without anything that stands out; find the right niches where those top-end skills are accentuated and the weakness are masked a bit and you can squeeze something more out of the player. And second, players with standout skills and glaring weaknesses are also ripe for improvement; it’s easier to go from a 2 to a 3 on the scouting scale than it is from a 5 to a 6 (in general).
Now, will the Mets actually fix Siri’s career long contact problems? Probably not, he’s already 29, has moved through both the Astros and Rays’ systems, and will now be working with a Mets’ hitting development apparatus that remains something of a question mark. The most likely outcome is another season of elite CF defense and offense ~10% worse than league average. The upside is here though, and when you combine that with Siri’s lower price tag ($2.3M per MLBTR) and three years of team control, he’s a clear upgrade over Bader.
As to the cost for the Mets, it wasn’t all that much. Eric Orze has a solid splitter and an incredible story, overcoming cancer and two surgeries to eventually make the majors. He’s also 27, got shelled in his first major league action this past season, and was more solid than spectacular in Triple-A this past season on his third go-round. Rob Orr’s pitch quality model (check under “Percentile Rankings – Pitchers”) quite likes Orze, rating his arsenal 93rd percentile in Triple-A largely on the strength of that splitter, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Rays turn him into a nifty reliever. At the same time, the Mets have already signed four or five arms with effectively the same level of upside as Orze this offseason, illustrating how eminently replaceable this sort of player is.
Acquiring a useful, cheap (for the Mets’ standards if not the Rays’), controllable contributor with a glimmer of upside for next to nothing is always going to rate well. It’s not dissimilar to the Mets leveraging a relatively small portion of their financial flexibility to pick up Tyrone Taylor last offseason, a very different player but one in the same roster situation that the Mets capitalized on. This is a solid B+ move.
These articles aim to focus on purely “on-field” logic, but there is one other point that bears mentioning here; Jose Siri’s relationship with Wander Franco. Franco, accused and since charged with sexual abuse of a minor, posted an infamous Instagram Live video defending himself shortly after the allegations came out. In the background, Siri can be heard defending Franco and accusing the alleged victim of being after his money. Needless to say, that is abhorrent, and Siri has never issued any sort of retraction or apology. If these actions impact your ability or desire to root for Siri or evaluate this trade from a purely on-field perspective, you are more than justified.