The Mets have a chance to add a generational player. They can’t pass it up.
Ever since Steve Cohen bought the Mets four years ago, fans have been promised a new chapter in franchise history. We were told that the days of being penny-pinching underdogs were over, that the team would be working to follow the model of teams like the Dodgers and Yankees to become a powerhouse organization that would be willing to spend top dollar to convince the biggest and best free agents to bring their talents to Queens.
As we look on four years later, has this promise been kept? Well, partly. The team’s payroll has certainly risen exponentially, and they’ve drawn some pretty big names. Perhaps most notably, one of Steve Cohen’s first signature transactions as owner was to trade for Francisco Lindor and then sign him to a massive $341 million extension. Four years later, it’s hard to argue with the results of that move, and it leaves one yearning for a similar premium addition to help the organization rise to yet another level.
However, while the Mets have been spending, it hasn’t necessarily been for the same kind of long-term contracts to young and elite players that they handed out to Lindor before he reached free agency. They’ve often handed out short-term and high-AAV contracts to big-name players who were on the older side of the aging curve: your Max Scherzers and Justin Verlanders. And they’ve liberally thrown around money on other short-term deals to mid-level free agents to plug up the various holes in the roster—moves which were necessary due to the team’s inability to fill said holes through the development of homegrown players.
The reason why the Mets haven’t been swimming in the Francisco Lindor corners of the player markets much in the past few years is fairly simple: There aren’t that many players who meet that criteria of young superstars with sustained track records of elite production. The ones that do exist often never reach free agency because their teams wisely lock them up. And even when those players become available, there may be other factors that makes the Mets’ pursuit of them difficult from the get-go.
They almost gave a huge long-term contract to Carlos Correa before medical concerns put the kibosh on that. Their biggest target last year was Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and they came up short—albeit less because they were unwilling to match the money that the Dodgers offered and more because of Yamamoto’s desire to play on the west coast. And the Mets also made little to no effort to convince Shohei Ohtani to come to New York, knowing that his desire to play in a different market would make that fight one they were unlikely to win. And surprise, surprise: the team that signed those last two elite talents ended up winning it all this year.
Thus, here we are. The Mets have made some solid steps in the Cohen years, including the team’s hiring of a forward-thinking president of baseball operations in David Stearns. Following the team’s remarkable 2024 season, fans are certainly ready for the team to take another step on the path towards building a sustainable winner. But in order to get there, the team need to continue being able to add top-flight talent. They need to be willing to outspend their competitors to add premium players who are capable of single-handedly changing the ceiling of what the franchise can accomplish. Enter Juan Soto.
Entering free agency after a career year with the crosstown Yankees, Soto is a unicorn in just about every sense of the word. A player still young enough at 26 that he hasn’t even entered his true prime yet, but nevertheless one who has a lengthy history of success. In seven years of big league playing time, the lowest wRC+ he’s ever put up was 143 when he was just 20 years old. A player who enters free agency, by all accounts, with absolutely no limitations on where he is willing to play—as long as the team in question is willing to pony up the dough. A player who, based on his youth and his track record, is fully capable of being the face of whatever franchise he chooses to play for over the next decade-plus of his career—a career that, health permitting, seems likely to end with him in Cooperstown.
Simply put: every single team in Major League Baseball should be salivating at the chance to add him to their roster. But realistically, only a small handful of teams are willing to offer the kind of contract that will be enough to sign him. The Mets, thanks to Steve Cohen’s wallet, are one of those teams. And there should be absolutely no question about the Mets’ willingness to put everything they have into bringing him to Queens.
Again, there’s no need to doubt Soto’s capabilities. Any cursory glance at his Baseball-Reference or FanGraphs page will tell you that he would immediately be the best hitter in the Mets’ lineup, and arguably the best hitter they’ve had in ages—maybe ever. And yet, baseball discourse being what it is, there will still always be detractors who point to any small reasons why a player like Soto is not worth pursuing. Let’s review two of the big arguments some people have already started throwing around before refuting each of them, shall we?
- His defense in the outfield is already bad, and at a certain point he’s probably going to have to move to either first base or DH full-time. Is it really worth going all-in for a player with those defensive limitations?
- Is paying one player somewhere in the area of $600-700 million dollars really the best use of money? Wouldn’t it be better to distribute that money more evenly to other players?
Regarding his defense: Yes, it’s not good. Yes, he probably will need to move to first base or DH at some point over the course of his contract. But unless you believe his offensive talents are going to implode sometime in the near future, Soto’s bat is good enough to ensure that he will provide elite production regardless of where or how he plays in the field, or even if he ends up never playing the field at all. Again, I would remind everyone that we’re talking about a 26-year-old player who has provided Hall of Fame-level offensive performance in his career thus far.
Do we think the Red Sox regret having had their DH spot locked up by David Ortiz for fourteen years? I can think of at least three reasons—2004, 2007, and 2013—why the answer there is no.
Regarding the money: again, I point to Steve Cohen. He can and should give Soto the money he wants while still being able and willing to spend elsewhere to fill the other holes that exist on the roster. And David Stearns is a smart enough executive to know that the road to becoming the Dodgers East does not begin and end at handing out the big contracts to the big stars—that’s the Angels’ approach. He knows that the Mets also need to become adept at adding cost-controlled talent to the roster through improving the farm system and maximizing the value of smaller role players. It is their success at doing just that ensures the Dodgers are never hamstrung by having numerous huge contracts on their payroll. The steps to improving those areas of the Mets’ player development system have already begun, but it will take more time to fully come into fruition. Nevertheless, adding a player of Soto’s caliber to the organization will just make it more impactful when the team does eventually improve on its ability to supplement the roster through its internal processes.
Beyond those two rebuttals to the supposed reasons against paying whatever is necessary to add Soto, I would also offer this question: If not him, then who? Which other star players are worthy of getting the full-court press to bring them to the Mets if not Soto? Looking ahead to future free agencies, the options for franchise-altering talents are limited. Arguably the best player on-track to be available next year is Kyle Tucker—a star, to be certain, and one who will be entering free agency at the fairly young age of 28. He may well be an appealing backup plan to any team that misses out on Soto this winter. But you have to wait an extra year for him to become available—if indeed he does enter free agency—and as is the case with most free agents, there’s no telling what factors may end up motivating him that may make it more or less likely that he would end up choosing the Mets over other teams. And after that, the position players available in the next couple free agency classes leave something to be desired. The next time a truly elite offensive player is set to be available may arguably be after the 2028 season when Gunnar Henderson hits the market—and now we’re talking about waiting several years before adding a true star player in free agency. Trades are also possible, of course—but then you’re talking about paying a premium price in prospects instead of just money.
Again: this is not to say that adding these types of talents is the one and only step that needs to be taken to building a sustained winner. The Mets should and will be working on adding additional talent to their team through both other acquisitions in free agency and trade and further developing their farm system to supplement their major league squad. But in Juan Soto, they have a rare opportunity—one that the previous ownership group would almost always let pass them by when it was before them. They have the opportunity to add a player who will change the trajectory of their franchise, one who would truly represent the Mets’ willingness to take the necessary steps to become a powerhouse organization. And if they seize that opportunity, it is entirely possible that twenty years from now we will be watching Soto enter the Hall of Fame wearing a Mets cap—hopefully after having helped to take the team to the top of the mountain and finally win their elusive first World Series since 1986.
These are the stakes before us. With any luck, Cohen and Stearns will recognize that and do what is necessary to make it happen.