Tylor Megill gets the start in the first game, while Luis Severino will be available if the team must win the second game.
With a win in Milwaukee yesterday, the Mets (88-72) are back in Atlanta today to determine whether one or both of them and the Braves (88-72) get into the playoffs. The Diamondbacks (89-73) concluded their regular season with a win, but both the Mets and Braves own a tiebreaker over Arizona. A split of the doubleheader ends the Diamondbacks’ season, while a doubleheader sweep by either team today would clinch a spot for that team and one for Arizona.
With no off day between this doubleheader and the first game of the Wild Card round, both teams are planning to save their best available starting pitchers for the second game in case they lose the first one and must win the second to advance. With a win in the first game, either team would presumably shift that starting pitcher to Game 1 of the playoff series tomorrow night.
Game 1: Tylor Megill vs. Spencer Schwellenbach at 1:10 PM EDT on SNY
Megill (2024): 72.1 IP, 83 K, 30 BB, 6 HR, 3.98 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 100 ERA-
The notion of Megill starting a game of major importance would have sounded really wild just a few months ago, as he struggled early in the season and was deserving of the demotion that he got to Triple-A Syracuse as a result. Since returning to the big leagues, though, he has been fantastic. Over his last seven appearances, Megill has thrown 33.1 innings with a 2.70 ERA and a 3.38 FIP. If you’re looking for something bad in that stretch, well, his first start back in the big leagues saw him give up four runs to the Braves in six innings. In his six appearances that followed that one, however, he put up a 1.98 ERA.
Schwellenbach (2024): 116.2 IP, 122 K, 23 BB, 14 HR, 3.47 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 83 ERA-
In the lone game that the Mets and Braves played last week before these two games were rained out and postponed to today, Schwellenbach gave up just one run in seven innings. In his previous start against the Mets back in late July, which also came opposite Megill, he went seven innings and didn’t give up any runs. The Mets’ lineup will be hoping that the third time is the charm, and to the extent that seeing a pitcher recently can help, well, it doesn’t get much more recent than six days ago.
Game 2: Luis Severino* vs. Chris Sale* following Game 1 on SNY
Severino (2024): 182.0 IP, 161 K, 60 BB, 23 HR, 3.91 ERA, 4.21 FIP, 99 ERA-
Should the Mets need to win the second game to keep their season alive, Severino is not a bad option to have. Despite a relatively pedestrian ERA on the season, he’s been one of the Mets’ most reliable pitchers this year. He had really been locked in from mid-August to early September with a 1.95 ERA over a five-start span, but in the three starts between that stretch and now, he had a 5.63 ERA as he faced the Phillies twice and the Braves once.
Sale (2024): 177.2 IP, 225 K, 39 BB, 9 HR, 2.38 ERA, 2.09 FIP, 57 ERA-
If Sale pitches today, he’ll be looking to both clinch a playoff spot for his team and wrap up his National League Cy Young case. Going into a potential start today, he’s 0.19 ahead of Zack Wheeler in ERA, and he’s 0.2 bWAR ahead of Wheeler, too. Barring a start that sees him get rocked, he’s the likely winner of the award. If there’s cause for concern from the Braves’ perspective, it would be the fact that Sale’s fastball velocity has been down in three of his past four appearances. As far as the Mets go, if they’re seeing Sale, it means they’re in the postseason, which would be quite a big relief.