The Mets have made the NLCS to a best-of-5 with home field over the next three games.
Following Game 1, you could forgive Mets fans for feeling a bit pessimistic. The Mets suffered a 9-0 to the Dodgers, which represents the most lopsided postseason loss in franchise history. Worse yet, nothing went right: Kodai Senga couldn’t find the plate, Mets’ bats couldn’t find the ball, and the game was over basically by the end of the first inning. Despite that, Brian Salvatore reminded us that hope was not lost following a rough opening outing, even if the loss made it seem like the Mets might be over-matched against baseball’s best team. The Mets proved Brian’s point with a resounding 7-3 in Game 2 win.
Now the series returns to Flushing as a best-of-five, and things feel significantly better for the team than they did 24 hours ago. This obviously is partially due to recency bias, as things always feel better post-win than post-defeat. However, a lot of it is also due to what we saw from the Mets in yesterday’s win, and how the series is shaping up in the coming days.
Home field advantage
In a best-of-seven series, the rule of thumb is you always want to split on the road before coming home. The Mets did that. Check. Mission accomplished. FOX flashed a stat that 88% of teams that have earned a sweep at home over the first two games win the series, so a loss yesterday would’ve have given us an early start on offseason planning. It doesn’t matter how ugly the Mets’ Game 1 loss was because they accomplished what they needed to do, especially in winning the game started by their ace, Sean Manaea, against the Dodgers’ bullpen. Now it’s a best-of-five, and the Mets have stolen home field away from L.A.
Even more important more than the statistics and the history is the present. The Mets, simply put, do not lose at home these days. Dating back to August 21, the Mets have lost two games at Citi Field. They sport a sparking 14-2 record in that span and have carried the vibes of the home crowd towards some incredible victories in that stretch. The Flushing Faithful are sure to be raucous in welcoming the team home for their biggest games Citi Field has hosted since the 2015 World Series.
If the Mets can win three games here, they would close out the series and punch their ticket to the Fall Classic, even if that’s an unlikely outcome. But even taking two out of three sends you back to Los Angeles with two chances to close things out and Manaea on the mound for Game 6. It’s a good position to be in, so long as you defend home field.
Pitching matchups
The Mets got punched in the face in Game 1, with no answer for Jack Flaherty. But as Brian pointed out in his piece, they lost to their opponent’s ace, while Senga was clearly still working his way back to game shape. As far as losses go, dropping the game where you’re at a clear pitching disadvantage isn’t awful.
The Mets did what they needed to in winning the Dodgers’ bullpen game, and now they return home to face Walker Buehler, who has been a shell of himself this year after returning from Tommy John surgery. They’ll counter with Luis Severino, who has been one of their best pitchers this year. He’s also been a completely different pitcher at Citi Field, sporting a 2.96 ERA in 97 1⁄3 innings at Citi Field vs. a 5.00 ERA in 84 2⁄3 innings on the road, which was partly why the Mets held him out until Game 3. The Mets have a chance to steal the advantage in the series right back ahead of facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Game 4.
Edwin Díaz is back
The Mets needed a big performance from Edwin Díaz in Game 2, and he delivered. He came in to get the final four outs and held the Dodgers back from making a final comeback. While it wasn’t a completely clean performance, he got better as the outing went along. He closed out his save with 13 straight heaters to retire Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernández, and Freddie Freeman, hitting near triple digits towards the end. As Christian Romo said in his piece earlier today, the Mets need their closer to look like that the rest of the run, and if he’s up to the challenge, the Mets will be tough to beat with a lead.
This outing should inspire confidence in Mets fans, even if there’s still some consternation with Díaz in big spots. In general, the bullpen did well in Game 2, and thanks to the back end of the pen eating up innings in Sunday’s blowout loss, the Mets return to Citi Field with almost all of their big guys available for duty starting in Game 3. With Los Angels expected to employ another bullpen game, potentially in Game 5 or Game 6, the Mets are in a solid position should it come down to a battle of the pens late in any of these games.
Offense coming alive
The Dodgers had a 33-inning shutout streak going into yestrday, matching a postseason record. Over three straight shutouts, they had given up just 12 hits. At one point, they pitched a perfect game in retiring 28 straight batters. The Mets broke through by picking up 10 hits and scoring seven runs. Obviously Los Angeles was not going to shut out their way to the World Series, but they did feel partly invincible over those three games, and the Mets came through.
But it wasn’t just the offense collecting seven runs on ten hits, it was how they did it. Of course, Francisco Lindor’s solo homer and Mark Vientos’ grand slam set the pace in guiding New York to an early six-run lead, which helped give the team some confidence and a big lead to work with. However, the more encouraging sign was that all nine starters reached base, with seven of the nine starters picking up at least one hit. Starling Marte collected three hits, including driving in the insurance run, while Tyrone Taylor picked up a clutch double to bring home the team’s second run. The Mets got contributions up and down the lineup, with their 5-9 going 6-for-19 while driving in two of the team’s seven runs.
The Mets will need Vientos and Lindor to continue hitting, and for Pete Alonso to continue coming through with big hits, but to defeat the Dodgers and go where they want to go, they are going to need contributions, big and small, from their entire lineup. With their lineup coming through in big spots yesterday, it should give Mets fans reasons to believe that the offense has it in them to guide them deeper into October.
All this is to say that, following a Game 1 loss in which nothing went right, the Game 2 win was a much-needed reset for the Mets, as well as the path ahead, should give fans some confidence. The Dodgers still represent a tough challenge for New York, but in beating them in Game 2, they were able to flip the script on this series and put them in a good position heading to New York.