The Major League Baseball playoffs begin today with the newly formatted Wild Card Rounds. Four best-of-three series across the American and National Leagues, with the winners moving on to face the top seed in the Division Series.
The 2024 Wild Card tilts are far from mere play-in games. Remember, the “worst” division winners immediately take the No. 3 seeds. This includes the NL Central winning Milwaukee Brewers, who won 93 games and finished with the No. 3 run differential in baseball at +136.
We’ve also got the young and hungry New York Mets this year, fresh off of clinching their spot in a Monday doubleheader. Throw in some former World Series champions, and you’ve got yourself a postseason.
Let’s do a deep dive and predict which teams move on to the next round.
No. 3 Houston Astros vs. No. 6 Detroit Tigers: In our spring MLB preview, we named the Tigers as having a remote shot at a Wild Card. Sure enough, AJ Hinch proved he could operate outside of the Astros’ cheating scandal as Detroit clinched the final spot. The Tigers’ pitchers ranked fourth in MLB with a 3.61 ERA despite having just one tried and true starter, likely Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, down the stretch.
Enter the Astros, the 2022 World Series champs who have since hit a slow decline. Everyone’s a year older now, especially future Hall of Fame ace Justin Verlander, but Houston’s arms (And full rotation) ranked sixth with a 3.74 mark.
That leaves the bats, and the Tigers simply do not score consistently. Spencer Torkelson took a big step back and Riley Greene can’t win two games by himself. The Astros ranked third in team batting average and were Top 10 in both OPS and home runs. Despite stumbling their way to another AL West crown, expect a short clean series: Astros in two.
No. 3 Milwaukee Brewers vs. No. 6 New York Mets: This matchup doesn’t require as much of a deep dive, but is still a tough call. Milwaukee is your classic small market team with more heart than star power, and the Mets fit under the “hottest team” umbrella. Remember, Hurricane Helene forced them to end their season with a Monday doubleheader. Game 1 against Milwaukee happens less than 24 hours later, and on the road to boot.
Who carries the winning team? Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso for New York? Longtime Mets nemesis Rhys Hoskins and rookie Jackson Chourio for the Brew Crew? Add young and/or streaky pitching on both sides, and it comes down to who plays better managing chess?
In that case, advantage first-year Brewers skipper and longtime college coach Pat Murphy. No disrespect to the Mets’ Carlos Mendoza, but his pitching staff is tired. Never a good sign going into any playoff series. Brewers in three.
No. 4 Baltimore Orioles vs. No. 5 Kansas City Royals: It’s a classic baseball conundrum in this series as the Orioles’ young bats face a sneaky good Royals pitching staff. KC’s arms ranked eighth with a 3.76 ERA, led by former Met Seth Lugo and lefty Cole Ragans. Baltimore’s staff can only really boast about former Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes. A fraught bullpen with no clear closer doesn’t help either.
Kansas City, meanwhile, is right where they were ten years ago: a scrappy Wild Card team built on a young lineup and clutch pitching. The Orioles and Gunnar Henderson might have the deeper lineup, but both teams share a common flaw: their bullpens. We may be in for some very low or very high-scoring games indeed.
But who wins? We’d think the Orioles just from playing in the more competitive AL East, but I’m actually picking the Royals. Baltimore had plenty of chances to either pull away or catch up in the division race against the rival Yankees and never capitalized.
Kansas City, on the other hand, played hungry all season. Royals in three.
No. 4 Atlanta Braves vs No. 5 San Diego Padres. Much like their AL East rival Mets, the Braves enter the playoffs with a very tired pitching staff. Adding insult to injury (or the other way around?), resurgent lefty Chris Sale might not be available. He was a late scratch with back spasms on Monday night, and Atlanta luckily prevailed.
The Padres, on the other hand, were chasing the Dodgers for the NL West up until the last week of the regular season. San Diego was also the best hitting team in baseball, scoring more runs than the Braves despite hitting less homers. Add a healthy pitching staff featuring a recently returned Yu Darvish, and the Padres win in a walk. Padres in two.
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