You’d never know it, but the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers have had a quiet playoff rivalry for over three decades. Though irregular, each matchup manages to bring something special.
It started in 1988, when the powerfully balanced 100-win Mets took on the pitching-dominant Dodgers. Sure enough, it was a battle back and forth until the Mets ran head-first into Orel Hershiser in Game 7. This was something of a shock, especially since LA’s 2.96 staff ERA finished second to the Mets’ 2.91, plus the Dodgers only hit 99 home runs all season.
It’d be almost two decades before the two squared off in October again, this time in the 2006 NLDS. This time, the Dodgers were the NL Wild Card matched against the NL East champion Mets, and New York won in a clean sweep.
Fast forward to 2015, and the two met in the Division Series once again. It was a tense battle through five games, with both close calls and blowouts. However, the Mets pulled through in Game 5 again thanks to a dream postseason from Daniel Murphy.
And for Part IV, the Mets and Dodgers have pulled out all the stops. Los Angeles has certain NL MVP Shohei Ohtani and a stacked lineup to compensate for shaky pitching. New York, of course, is in the familiar underdog position after clinching a Wild Card berth on the last day of the season.
The Dodgers are loaded, but the Mets are hot. Which team will come through with the NL Pennant on the line?
2024 Season: This series is a microcosm of the 2024 MLB season as a whole, if you think about it. The Dodgers were expected to run away with the NL West after signing Ohtani and Japanese ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Instead, Yamamoto dealt with injuries along with most of the Dodgers’ staff and LA was clinging to first place going into the last week of the season.
The Mets, as we just mentioned, invited Grimace to throw out the first pitch over the summer, and the rest is history. They fought and clawed their way into the playoffs and, like the Dodgers, have a middling pitching staff. LA’s overall lineup may be stronger, but the Mets can keep up with their power.
The season series was strange too, with the Mets taking two of three in Dodger Stadium in April. The next month, the Dodgers swept a three-game series at Citi Field. Anything can happen in a short series.
Probable pitching matchups
- GAME 1: Jack Flaherty (13-7, 3.17 ERA) vs. Kodai Senga (1-0, 3.38 ERA)
- GAME 2: TBD vs. Sean Manaea (12-6, 3.47 ERA)
- GAME 3: TBD
- GAME 4: TBD
- GAME 5: TBD (If necessary)
- GAME 6: TBD (If necessary)
- GAME 7: TBD (If necessary)
Who’s Hot? Serious question, can anybody stop Mark Vientos? New York’s 24-year-old third baseman is batting .429 in the playoffs with a team-leading seven RBI, and it seems he always has a homer ready in his back pocket. He’s got two this postseason already, and Pete Alonso has three while batting a healthy .273.
And believe it or not, the Dodgers’ best hitter thus far has been outfielder Teoscar Hernandez. His solo home run in Game 5 against the Padres sealed Los Angeles’ win, and he’ll be looking to hit plenty more in the NLCS.
Who’s Not? Brace for impact, Shohei Ohtani did not fare too well in his first playoff series. The Dodgers’ (deferred) $700 million man hit only .200 with one home run against the Padres, and struck out ten times compared to walking twice. It’s a trend across Los Angeles’ whole lineup. Hernandez and Gavin Lux are the only two to appear in every NLDS game while also batting over .250 in the series.
Nobody really stands out as slumping on the Mets side except for Francisco Alvarez. He’s only hitting .154 in the playoffs and should take advantage of the Dodgers’ lack of quality pitching.
Pitching Notes
- Neither team has set a firm rotation for the series, but the Mets should definitely give lefty Jose Quintana the ball for Game 3 or 4. He hasn’t allowed a run in 11 innings (two starts) this postseason, and also owns a 2.03 career ERA against Los Angeles.
- Dodgers righty Walker Buehler continues to struggle in his return from a second Tommy John surgery. Buehler was 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA (5.54 FIP) in 16 regular season starts, and gave up six runs in five innings in his sole NLDS start. Worse yet, LA’s pitching is banged up enough that he’s almost certainly starting a game this series.
- Both lineups have enough bats that the NLCS could very well be decided by the bullpens. The Dodgers have lots of shutdown arms, while the Mets’ relief corps is clearly tiring. That still won’t stop the trumpets from sounding at Citi Field whenever Edwin Diaz and his 8.10 playoff ERA make their entrance.
Odds of advancing to the World Series
FanGraphs: Dodgers 63.7%, Mets 36.3%
Baseball-Reference: Dodgers 23.3%, Mets 14.5%
Prediction: This isn’t so easy as calling the Mets the hottest team and thus handing them the series. Even if true, there are lots of moving parts. The Dodgers’ pitching, for all its flaws, is overall superior, but only if the lineup builds a big enough lead. Ohtani needs to get back in MVP form fast for the Dodgers to have a chance.
The Mets, contrastingly, are winning on vibes and energy alone. There’s a fire lit under them that all too often leads to clinching the pennant. Fans are already envisioning being tossed Big Macs and Quarter-Pounders during the parade down the Canyon of Heroes.
Buckle up, Steve Cohen. Your transformation into Mayor McCheese continues. Mets in 7
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