The Mets still control their own destiny, but their performance in Milwaukee could spare them a return trip to Atlanta.
The Mets received two unexpected days off with rain sweeping through the Atlanta area, much of which can be attributed to Hurricane Helene, which is set to hit Atlanta today. At most junctures of a season, two extra days off would be a welcome sight. However, with one week left to go and the Mets fighting for their playoff lives, the scheduling complications resulting from these postponed games could carry over into the postseason
Let’s examine where things stand. At the moment, the Mets are enjoying a slim one-game lead over the Braves following their 5-1 loss in Tuesday’s game at Truist Park. The weather forecast was already looking far from promising, making it a pivotal game for New York, but they fell flat on their face. With Atlanta foregoing any contingency plans and MLB not intervening, it seemed all sides were content to try and play Wednesday, but the rain eventually made that impossible, resulting in the postponements.
The Mets are now staring down a Monday doubleheader given the likely significance of the games. Should they make the postseason, that would eliminate the in-between travel day, which would put the Mets at a huge disadvantage heading into October. Given that the Mets would likely be traveling to Milwaukee—especially frustrating, as they play in Milwaukee this weekend and would have otherwise avoided unnecessary travel—or San Diego, this could present a huge problem for the Mets.
It is possible that the games will mean nothing beyond seeding, at which point Rob Manfred can unilaterally decide that they don’t need to be played. Let’s explore this further and see where things are with the Wild Card standings:
- The Mets are one game up on Atlanta, with the tiebreaker yet to be decided. They have lost 6 of 11 games to the Braves in 2024, and would need to sweep Monday’s doubleheader to gain the tiebreaker.
- The Mets are tied with the Diamondbacks and hold the tiebreaker. This means they would finish ahead of Arizona if conclude 2024 with the same record.
- The Padres hold a 3.5 game lead over the Mets and, barring a collapse, should get the first Wild Card spot. San Diego also stands a slim chance of winning the NL Wes, but the Dodgers could clinch with a victory tonight.
After a win on Wednesday night to salvage the finale of their series, Arizona is off on Thursday before hosting the Padres at home. The Braves will host the Royals—weather permitting—starting on Friday. The Royals will still have plenty to play for, as they are locked in their own battle for an AL Wild Card spot. The Mets, meanwhile, will face a Brewers team that has little to nothing to play for, as they are now locked into the third spot in the NL following their loss on Wednesday coupled with the Dodgers’ victory. They will host a Wild Card series beginning on Tuesday no matter what.
The Mets currently own a magic number of four for both the fifth and the sixth Wild Card spots. Essentially, any combination of four wins from the Mets and/or losses by the Diamondbacks/Braves will get them in. There’s an added layer here, as the Mets would like to do everything they can to avoid those Monday games, and there’s three games in between now and then. Let’s then look at what the Mets can do this weekend, and how it affects their path forward.
- Mets sweep the Brewers: This is, obviously, the optimal solution. A sweep means that they would, at minimum, remain tied with Arizona and one-game up on Atlanta. This means that, if the Mets sweep the Brewers, and Arizona and/or Atlanta lose one game, the Mets be in, and Monday’s games would matter only for seeding, at least for the Mets (the Braves and Diamondbacks could still be fighting it out for the final spot).
- Mets win two of three in Milwaukee: Also a good option, though slightly less optimal. In this scenario, if Arizona and/or Atlanta were to drop two of three in their respective series, the Mets would, at minimum, clinch a spot.
- Mets lose two of three in Milwaukee: In this case, the only way the Mets would guarantee themselves a postseason berth before Monday is if either Arizona or Atlanta were swept. Short of that, the Mets would be playing on Monday.
- Mets get swept in Milwaukee: We’re probably not thinking postseason if it comes to this, but if the Mets are swept, the best they could hope for is for Arizona or Atlanta to lose two of three or get swept, which would keep them alive heading into Monday. That would give the Mets a magic number of two or one, which still allows them to control their destiny heading into Monday, but it would require them to sweep the twin bill.
There’s a lot of trickiness to determining New York’s postseason path moving forward. As such, it’s imperative the Mets do everything in their power to avoid a Monday doubleheader, which means putting their best foot forward in Milwaukee. Their rotation has been thrown into flux, as Carlos Mendoza will not only need to figure out how to approach these three games, but Monday as well, while also accounting for a potential Wild Card series.
The team will almost definitely lead off the upcoming series with Sean Manaea, who was slated to go on Thursday against the Braves. This is the latest Manaea can pitch while still being available for a guaranteed Wild Card game. The Mets could then go either David Peterson or José Quintana on Saturday, which would also give that pitcher the nod to go in Game 3 of a Wild Card round. Personally, I’m partial to going with the veteran here, especially since Peterson has been shakier as of late. Finally, the series would end with the Peterson.
Things get trickier from there. Depending on where the Mets stand, they can either go with Luis Severino in Monday’s doubleheader, which would leave them with a hole for Game 1 of the Wild Card round, especially since they would go with Tylor Megill in Game 2. If the Mets are forced to play but the game means nothing beyond seeding, the Mets can (and likely will) save Severino for Game 1 and go with Tylor Megill in the first game of the doubleheader. This leaves some question with whom they’d go with in the second game, but the hope is, by then, it won’t matter. The greater concern is taxing the bullpen in a doubleheader ahead of a postseason series.
No matter what, the Monday doubleheader presents a huge inconvenience and challenge for New York, as they have to both fight for their lives while also worry about roster management, additional travel, and a worn down roster ahead of a best-two-out-of-three series. There’s a lot riding on these next three games in Milwaukee, and it’ll be interesting to see how Mendoza lines things up and approaches these games.