The Mets have a lot to feel good about heading into Game 3.
Going into a much-hyped NLDS matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies, most reasonable Mets fans would have been ecstatic to split the first two games. And the Mets did just that.
But the Mets could be up 2-0! say some of those fans. And they are correct! The Mets could most certainly be up 2-0.
However, the Mets didn’t just luck into a 1-1 split—they convincingly beat arguably the best team in baseball against their ace at their own park, and then matched them punch-for-punch in a Game 2 thriller until the home team beat them with home team privileges. That’s a favorable result on paper, especially with all the hopeful signs that came out of these two games.
So while nursing a walk-off loss is disappointing, let’s go over a few reasons to stay optimistic heading into Game 3:
The bats are heating up
The Mets hitters were downright awful in the last week of the season, slashing .198/.251/.294 with only nine extra-base hits in the team’s final six games. They weren’t much better in the Wild Card series, either, though they got the hits when they needed to.
That hasn’t been the case against the Phillies, even with seven innings against an unhittable Zack Wheeler. The Mets are slashing .271/.338/.457 in 80 plate appearances in their first two Division Series games with four home runs, all coming during Game 2. They have a 47.1% hard-hit rate and a 33.3% line drive rate—both tops among all teams in the DS.
Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso and Mark Vientos all homered in Game 2, with Vientos going yard twice. Even Francisco Lindor, who’s registered only three hits all postseason, leads all batters with six walks and is tied for second with five runs in the playoffs.
Small sample size? Absolutely! But considering the pitchers they’re batting against, the lineup’s production is still impressive.
Philly’s bullpen looks beatable
The Philadelphia bullpen was a team strength all season, finishing third in the Majors in strikeouts-per-nine (9.71) and sixth in Fangraphs WAR (5.8), led by 2024 All-Stars Jeff Hoffman and Matt Strahm.
So far, Philly’s bullpen has been their weakest area.
The Phillies have a combined 15.00 (!) ERA from their relievers through the first two games, by far the worst among the playoff teams so far. Straham leads all postseason relievers in earned runs (4) in just two games pitched as the bullpen in its entirety has failed to support strong starts from Wheeler and Christopher Sánchez.
Is it worth mentioning that the Mets bullpen hasn’t been much better? If you want—but we’re trying to be optimistic here.
Home field advantage
This might be the biggest reason to be optimistic about the Mets. By splitting their first two road games, the Mets gave themselves the opportunity to win the series in New York—without having to go back to Philadelphia and, crucially, without having to face Wheeler again.
That home cooking is already tasty, but it’s especially needed after so much time away. The Mets have played 11 straight road games on four separate trips in three different cities. The last time the Mets played a game at Citi Field was on Sept. 22, a day in which the Jets possessed a winning record.
Coincidentally, the last two games the Mets played at Citi Field were wins against the Phillies. That doesn’t have much to do with anything right now—it’s just fun to point out.
No quit
There’s no statistical analysis here, unless some intrepid statistician has an xHEART or DAWG+ metric we can use.
And there’s no empirical evidence to show that the Mets’ late-inning heroics will appear again, lest a decade’s worth of miraculous innings continue for another magical week.
But if the eye test is good for anything here, it’s this: The Mets look like they’re playing free and loose. There are smiles, there is fun (and whimsy), and there looks to be a lot less pressure on this team than there was at this point couple of years ago.
The Phillies may have more talent on paper, but so did the Braves and the Brewers, who are both watching the playoffs from their couches. The Mets are still here in no small part to the fight they’ve demonstrated through serious adversity. None of this means the Mets will win, baseball being baseball, but it seems pretty likely that they’ll keep on punching no matter the odds.