Who will lose their roster spot for Jeff McNeil?
Before Sunday night’s Game 1 against the Dodgers, the Mets have some decisions to make about the 26 man roster for the National League Championship series.
In the four game Division Series, the Mets used 24 of the 26 players on the roster. The only two players that did not appear in any of the four games are relief pitchers: left hander Danny Young and right hander Adam Ottavino. Neither was used in either the Division Series or the Wild Card Series.
Given that the series went only four games, no injuries occurred, no pitchers were particularly overused, and the fact that the Mets did not play Thursday, Friday, or Saturday, there would not necessarily be a reason to discuss changing the roster.
However, with Jeff McNeil playing in two Arizona Fall League games to test his recently healed wrist, the Mets are ‘pretty certain’ that, given his health is ok, McNeil will be added to the NLCS roster.
Conventional wisdom says that you want a fully stocked pitching staff for a playoff roster, so the expected move would be to swap out a position player for McNeil if the opportunity arises.
However, the Mets roster doesn’t really have a player that makes sense as a natural swap. The Mets have been using four outfielders regularly: Brandon Nimmo, Tyrone Taylor, and Starling Marte as starters, and Harrison Bader as a defensive replacement/occasional starter. The DH position has been split between J.D. Martinez and Jesse Winker, though Winker has been playing less than anticipated due to a sore back.
On the infield, Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Mark Vientos, and José Iglesias are secure. McNeil can’t catch, so Francisco Alvarez and Luis Torrens are safe in their spots, too.
Unless you believe that Winker is more hurt than he appears while smoking a cigar and calling his place on this team a dream come true, the most logical player on the chopping block would be Luisangel Acuña. Acuña looked absolutely overmatched in his two postseason plate appearances, both of which resulted in strikeouts. But Acuña’s value to the team isn’t form his bat, but his glove and his speed. Late in games, Carlos Mendoza has been pulling Mark Vientos and Starling Marte from games, and subbing in Acuña and Harrison Bader for defense late. Acuña also represents the Mets’ best option for pinch running on the roster.
So if they want McNeil on the roster, it might make sense to pull from the pitching staff. The Mets’ pitching staff is constructed in such a way that they are carrying, depending how you look at it, six or seven starters on the roster right now, though that’s a bit of a misnomer, as three of those pitchers will likely not start a game in the traditional sense. Behind Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and José Quintana, the Mets are carrying David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Kodai Senga, and José Buttó. With Senga and Peterson having piggybacked for the Game 1 in the NLDS and Peterson being used in relief for 2+ innings in Game 5, it appears likely that Peterson will be used in non-traditional ways. Megill appeared in relief in Game 2, and seems reasonably comfortable in that role as well. Buttó hasn’t started in the majors since May 14th, but has the ability to throw multiple innings in whatever role the Mets use him.
So, with three pitchers set as ‘traditional’ starts, Senga as an opener, Peterson as his immediate reliever, and Megill and Buttó as options to go long, that leaves Edwin Díaz, Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek, and Reed Garret are the organization’s best short-stint, high-leverage options.
That leaves the two unused relievers rounding out the pitching staff.
Ottavino pitched in both games of the September 30th double header, so it wasn’t surprising that he was not used in the Wild Card Series that began just one day later. Young, on the other hand, had not pitched since Saturday, September 28th, making him available for every playoff game and, again, not being used.
Discounting the shortened 2020 season, Ottavino had his worst year in the majors, posting a 94 ERA+. While he had stretches of decent play this year, Ottavino had lost the faith of Mendoza and Jeremy Hefner by the end of the season, and is likely on the roster in case of a blowout game and as a reward for his veteran presence.
Young, on the other hand, is the only left handed reliever that the Mets carried on the postseason roster thus far. Now, granted, David Peterson came out of the bullpen twice in the NLDS, but he’s not a LOOGY, or whatever the anagram should be now that there’s a three-batter minimum. Young is the pitcher who, theoretically, should be facing Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper in big spots late in games, but he hasn’t appeared in a single game yet this postseason.
Given that Young wasn’t used in that exact scenario in any of the games thus far, it seems unlikely that the Mets would trust him in similar situations in the NLCS.
The argument could be made that the Mets shouldn’t roster either Ottavino or Young, which would leave room for McNeil and another player, likely a pitcher, and it would have to be someone on the 40-Man Roster. In terms of relievers, the Mets could recall Huascar Brazobán or Max Kranick, both of whom were on the Wild Card roster, but neither of whom really make sense as a replacement for Ottovino or Young. There’s another left handed Young, Alex, who appeared in 15.2 innings for the Mets this season with a 2.87 ERA and a 123 ERA+. Joey Lucchesi pitched the last game of the season and would give the Mets both a left-handed arm and another multi-innings pitcher on the roster.
If the Mets really wanted to load up on offense, they could roster D.J. Stewart, who was not very effective this season but would provide hypothetical pop off the bench. The only other hitters on the 40-Man Roster are outfielders José Azocar and Alex Ramírez, and neither of them make much sense for the roster.
Given all of that, the most likely scenario would see Danny Young replaced by McNeil on the roster. This would allow the Mets to keep the veteran Ottavino, whose postseason experience is among the most tenured on the roster and who, in a pinch, can probably go multiple innings.
The question of how McNeil will be used is up foe debate, but if he is healthy, the team will not doubt benefit from his bat on the roster.