The Mets punched their ticket to the Championship Series, but their opponent is yet to be determined.
With Wednesday’s dramatic 4-1 win over the Phillies, the Mets closed out the NLDS in four games and punched their ticket to the NLCS for the first time since 2015, when they swept the Cubs in four games. The Mets will have to wait until Sunday to play another baseball game, which isn’t the worst thing in the world given the team’s hectic schedule since the final weekend of the regular season. On top of that, the Mets will also have to wait until Friday to find out who they are playing.
Just a few hours after the Mets’ incredible victory, the Dodgers shut out the Padres 8-0, which knotted the series up at four and sent both teams back to Los Angeles for a decisive Game 5 tonight. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET., which means that, in just about twelve hours or so, the Mets should know whether they are flying to Los Angeles or to San Diego to continue their season. For the Mets players, it probably doesn’t matter whom they face. This club is so locked in and confident right now that they feel they take on anybody. But many fans are already looking ahead to the next matchup and thinking about which option might be better for an NLCS matchup.
If this sort of thing matters to you, the Mets went 5-2 against the Padres and 2-4 against the Dodgers. Of course, the Mets went 1-5 against the Brewers and 6-7 against the Philadelphia Phillies in the regular season, so that sort of thing is hardly relevant come October. The Mets won two of three at Dodger Stadium in April, but they famously got swept at Citi Field, which coincided with Jorge López throwing his glove into the stands and the players calling the meeting that, by many accounts, helped turn the season around. Meanwhile, the Mets swept San Diego at Citi Field in their (first) post-Grimace hot streak back in June, and split four at Petco Park in August.
Here’s how the two potential opponents stack up:
Offense
The Dodgers were the best offensive team in baseball by wRC+ (118) and WAR (33.7). They also led the NL in home runs (233) and were second in runs scored (842). This is not surprising, given the numbers Shohei Ohtani put up. Ohtani is going to win NL MVP, probably unanimously, after putting together the first 50/50 season in MLB history. Ohtani ended up with 54 homers, 59 stolen bases, 134 runs scored, and 130 runs batted in while slashing .310/.390/.646. He will almost certainly get the Bryce Harper treatment with the Mets pitching around him whenever possible in big spots. In his first postseason, he has one homer and has driven in four in four games.
The rest of their lineup is nothing to sneeze at. Mookie Betts is still a tremendous table setter and is having a great postseason, leading the club with a 167 wRC+ and two homers while hitting .267/.389/.667. There’s also Met killer Freddie Freeman, who is struggling in the playoffs but is always a nuisance against New York, hitting .304/.388/.499 with 31 career homers and 56 career doubles in 772 at-bats. Beyond that, L.A. has a deep lineup featuring Teoscar Hernández, Will Smith, Max Muncy, and Gavin Lux.
The Padres are third in the National League (sixth in MLB) with a 111 wRC+ and fifth in the NL (seventh in MLB) with a 26.6 fWAR. They’ve hit 190 home runs and scored 760 runs on the season, which are good for 11th and eighth, respectively, in the NL. They were led by Jurickson Profar in wRC+ (139) and OPS (.839), while Manny Machado led the club in homers (29) and runs batted in (105). However, it’s Fernando Tatis Jr. who has paced the club during the postseason. He has a team-high four homers, eight runs scored, and seven runs batted in over six October gamers. He also leads the club in wRC+ (366), average (.500), OBP (.577), and SLG (1.182).
So, basically every metric. While Ohtani is the best player between the two clubs, Tatis Jr. is the toughest out so far in October. Still, the edge in the lineup goes to Los Angeles.
Advantage: Dodgers
Starting Pitching
While offense is close, the story of starting pitching is much starker. The Padres’ staff posted a 3.91 ERA (fifth in NL, 13th in MLB) and a 3.89 FIP (third in NL, seventh in MLB), while their 13.8 fWAR came in at third in the NL (fifth in MLB). They have a deep rotation, including: Michael King, who led the club with a 2.85 ERA in 170 1⁄3 innings; Dylan Cease, who led the team in starts (33), innings pitched (189 1⁄3), FIP (3.44), and fWAR (4.8), and Yu Darvish, who missed some time due to injury but remains a dangerous opponent, especially against the Mets (3.23 ERA with 67 strikeouts in 64 innings across 10 starts vs. the Mets). San Diego will be missing Joe Musgrove, who left an earlier postseason start and will miss the remainder of the playoffs and next season after undergoing Tommy John Surgery.
The Dodgers came into the postseason with four starters on their roster: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty, Walker Buehler, and Landon Knack. To give you an idea of the state of their rotation, they just employed a bullpen game in a do-or-die Game 4 (which they won). In the regular season, Los Angeles’ rotation ranked 10th in the NL (19th in MLB) with a 4.23 staff ERA, while their 4.28 FIP came in at 11th in the NL (22nd in MLB) and their 10.1 fWAR was 10th in the NL (20th in MLB). Los Angeles is led by Yamamoto, who led the team with a 3.00 ERA and a 2.61 FIP in 90 innings across 18 starts in his rookie campaign. His 2.8 fWAR was second to Tyler Glasnow, who led Dodgers’ starters with a 3.8 fWAR but will not pitch again this season. Gavin Stone led the team in starts (25) and innings pitched (140 1⁄3) while pitching to a 3.53 ERA and a 4.01 FIP, but he was also left off the NLDS roster after landing on the IL in September, with his return seeming very unlikely. Buehler, one of only four starters on the NLDS roster for L.A., had a rough go of it this season, pitching to a 5.38 ERA and a 5.54 FIP in 75 1⁄3 innings after returning from Tommy John surgery.
Advantage: San Diego
Bullpen
The Padres posted a 3.78 ERA, which was fifth best in the NL (11th in MLB), but their 3.60 FIP was second in the NL (third in MLB). Their relievers ended up with a 5.5 fWAR, which was fifth in the NL (seventh in MLB). San Diego went with nine relievers in the NLDS: Jason Adam, Jeremiah Estrada, Bryan Hoeing, Alek Jacob, Robert Suarez, Yuki Matsui, Adrian Morejon, Wandy Peralta, and Tanner Scott. San Diego has a couple of dangerous weapons in their pen, with Estrada leading the pen with a 1.6 fWAR while pitching to a 2.95 ERA, a 2.07 FIP, and a 13.87 K/9 in 61 innings. Morejon, meanwhile, owns a 2.83 ERA, a 2.79 FIP, and a 10.04 K/9, resulting in a 1.1 fWAR in 63 2⁄3 innings.
The Dodgers are almost the exact reverse of San Diego. The Dodgers’ pen posted the second best bullpen ERA in the NL (fourth in MLB) with their 3.53 mark, but their bullpen FIP of 4.05 was 13th in the NL (21st in MLB). All that amounted to a 4.5 fWAR, which was seventh-best in the NL (10th in MLB). The Dodgers also went into the NLDS with nine relievers during this series: Evan Phillips, Michael Kopech, Daniel Hudson, Blake Treinen, Alex Vesia, Anthony Banda, Edgardo Henriquez, Michael Grove, Ryan Brasier. Vesia had some of the most impressive numbers for the Dodgers, posting a 1.76 ERA and 3.45 FIP in 66 1⁄3 innings while leading the club with a 1.1 fWAR. Blake Treinen posted a 1.93 ERA, a 3.00 FIP, and a 1.0 FIP in 46 2⁄3 innings.
While the numbers show a close matchup, San Diego has the more dangerous bullpen options and should represent a bigger challenge here.
Advantage: San Diego
Defense
In just taking a quick look at the numbers, the Padres boast the better Outs Above Average (OAA), with a 3 vs. a -4 for the Dodgers. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have a 65 DRS, which is tops in the NL and third-best overall in MLB). Meanwhile, the Padres own a -4 DRS, which is 10th in the NL (21st in MLB). By Fangraphs’ defensive rankings, Los Angeles and San Diego come in at 18th and 20th, respectively, in MLB on defense.
Advantage: Draw
Overall, both teams are very tough, but given their pitching woes, the Dodgers might actually present the slightly more favorable matchup for the Mets. Their rotation is not what it was at the start of the season, especially after you get beyond Yamamoto. The key to defeating them is containing Ohtani, which is easier said than done. Meanwhile, the Padres boast a deeper rotation and a stronger bullpen while also employing the biggest postseason threat so far in Tatis Jr. Either matchup will be a battle for New York, but the way the Mets are playing right now, it’s truly hard to bet against them.