Could a reunion with Justin Turner have benefitted the Mets?
Welcome to the ‘2024 Alternate Mets,’ a feature where we look at what could have been if the Mets had signed/acquired rumored players from the past offseason.
One of the most clear examples of a late bloomer in recent baseball memory is Justin Turner. Before he came to New York before the 2011 season, Turner put up -.0.1 bWAR for the Orioles, and then in three seasons with the Mets, Turner was good for .07 bWAR. But once Turner was non-tendered after the 2013 season, Turner exploded. Over 9 seasons in Los Angeles, Turner put up 34.1 bWAR and never had a season where he had a lower OPS+ than 120.
While his 2023 season in Boston didn’t live up to his Dodgers best, he still hit .276/.345/.455. So, when the Mets were looking for a designated hitter last offseason, Turner’s name was one of the few tossed around as potential fits for the team.
After accepting a buyout of his option with the Red Sox, Turner signed a one-year $13 million contract with the Blue Jays. At the deadline, Toronto moved Turner (along with some cash) to the Seattle Mariners for minor league outfielder RJ Schreck.
Instead of Turner, the Mets signed J.D. Martinez late in Spring Training to a one year, $12 million contract. Considering how good Martinez has been, even as recently as 2023 (.271/.321/.572 with 33 home runs, 136 OPS+), going unsigned as long as he did was quite surprising. Due to signing so late, as well as some minor injury setbacks, Martinez missed most of the first month of the season, debuting on April 26th.
Due in part to the late start, Turner played in 19 more games this season than Martinez did. Martinez slugged 23 points higher than Turner, whose power started to fade in 2024, going from 31 doubles and 23 home runs with Boston to 24 doubles and 11 home runs. But overall, the season were similar, with Turner having an overall better year.
Turner (2024): 539 PA, .259 BA, .354 OBP, .383 SLG, 11 HR, 114 OPS+, 1.5 bWAR
Martinez (2024): 495 PA, .235 BA, .320 OBP, .406 SLG, 16 HR, 106 OPS+, 0.5 bWAR
A big part of the disparity between the two players was Martinez’s rapid decline in the second half and, like Turner, much of the decline came in the power department. While August was a decent month, both July and especially September were rough months for Martinez, who totaled just one extra base hit in all of September. Time comes for all players, and it appeared in the second half of 2024 that time might finally be coming for Martinez.
With all of these hypotheticals, there are intangibles to consider, but intangibles are, by their very nature, hard to quantify. There are two things, however, that may not show up in box scores or Fangraphs pages, that have to be considered with Martinez’s signing. The first is his reputation as almost a player/coach, helping a number of players, most notably Mark Vientos, make adjustments at the plate. In what was an especially rough first two months of the season, a veteran presence helping keep the team upbeat and focused is something that can’t be ignored.
In addition, at the now infamous team meeting on May 29th, Martinez said, “No one’s expecting us to do anything anymore. Let’s just go out there and enjoy it and have fun.” That attitude helped make the team take some of the pressure off of themselves, and helped the team focus and begin to turn things around.
Would the Mets’ true talent have shined through without that team meeting, or without Martinez helping players identify pitches and adjust their swings? No one can know, but in terms of on-field product, Turner would’ve likely been a better signing than Martinez. However, with the difference being 1.0 bWAR/.6 fWAR, it wasn’t a decision that likely changed much for the Mets’ season.
However, the approach to Martinez’s signing is one that’s hard to argue with. Despite being two of the older players in baseball (Turner is 39, Martinez 37), both players had, until 2023, been excellent offensive players who commanded short term, affordable contracts. Even if the Mets had signed Turner, the performance on the field was a bit of let down from both players.
In fact, only two players who signed as a DH in the offseason had significantly better seasons than either Turner or Martinez. Jorge Soler was marginally better than both, and Andrew McCutchen more or less split the difference between the two. The two successes? Shohei Othani and a player the Mets would acquire at the trade deadline: Jesse Winker.