For the first time, the Mets and Phillies are playing each other in the postseason.
This week alone, the Mets have put together two of the biggest wins in franchise history, and as a result, they’re set to begin a best-of-five National League Division Series against the rival Phillies this afternoon in Philadelphia. And Kodai Senga is starting the first game of the series.
Coming off Pete Alonso’s three-run home run that turned a deficit into a lead in the ninth inning of a win-or-go-home Game 3 in Milwaukee on Thursday night, the Mets head into this series in about as good a position as they’ve been in a postseason in a very long time. The vast majority of the players that got them to this point are on the active roster and producing. Including Senga, the team will have six viable starting pitchers available. Several of them figure to make appearances in relief.
Nothing should be taken for granted here, of course, even with the vibes running extremely high right now. The Phillies are a good team. The Mets are, too. It doesn’t feel like any remaining team in these playoffs is too tough for the Mets to beat, but none of them should be taken lightly, either.
The Phillies’ rotation is formidable. Their bullpen wasn’t in the top tier in the regular season, but it was a bit better than the Mets’ bullpen by ERA. Phillies relievers had a 3.94 ERA on the season, while the Mets’ bullpen had a 4.03 ERA. Both ranked in the middle of the pack.
It comes as no surprise that Bryce Harper was the Phillies’ best hitter this year. He finished the season with a .285/.373/.525 line, 30 home runs, and a 145 wRC+. He’s had better years than that at the plate, but he was still very, very good. And Kyle Schwarber ranks second among Phillies hitters with a 135 wRC+. He’s the lone link to the Mets’ last significant playoff run, as he was on the Cubs when the Mets swept them in the NLCS in 2015.
Beyond those two, Trea Turner was pretty solid with a 124 wRC+, and Alec Bohm (115 wRC+), J.T. Realmuto (109 wRC+), Brandon Marsh (108 wRC+), and Nick Castellanos (105 wRC+) were all above league average.
As for the Mets, Max Kranick—who was on the Wild Card roster despite having spent the year in the minors—figures to be left off the NLDS roster to make room for Senga. And one of Adam Ottavino, Huascar Brazobán, or Danny Young will almost certainly be left off the roster to open up a spot for Tylor Megill, who Carlos Mendoza confirmed will be on it.
On the position player side of things, the roster figures to be identical to what the Mets used against the Brewers. Jeff McNeil might follow Senga in making it back from injury during this playoff run, but a return isn’t imminent. That would mean that Luisangel Acuña, who made appeared in all three games of the Wild Card series strictly as a defensive replacement, stays on the roster for the NLDS.
The atmosphere at both Citizens Bank Park and Citi Field figures to be intense. It’s been a minute since these teams faced each other in such an important series.
Game 1—Saturday, October 5: Kodai Senga vs. Zack Wheeler at 4:08 PM PM EDT on FOX
Senga (2024): 5.1 IP, 9 K, 1 BB, 1 HR, 3.38 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 85 ERA-
In his lone start of the regular season, Senga returned from injury and picked up right where he left off in 2023. The fact that he suffered another injury and missed the rest of the regular season was a shame. Whatever the Mets get from him in this game and any potential future starts is a major unexpected bonus.
Wheeler (2024): 200.0 IP, 224 K, 52 BB, 20 HR, 2.57 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 62 ERA-
Simply put, Wheeler has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year. Chris Sale will probably beat him out for the National League Cy Young, but if Wheeler did end up winning the award, you couldn’t say that he didn’t deserve it.
Game 2—Sunday, October 6: Luis Severino vs. Cristopher Sánchez at 4:08 PM EDT on FS1
Severino (2024): 182.0 IP, 161 K, 60 BB, 23 HR, 3.91 ERA, 4.21 FIP, 99 ERA- / Postseason: 6.0 IP, 3 K, 2 BB, 0 HR, 4.50 ERA, 3.67 FIP
Severino is one of several players who played a major part in getting the Mets to this point. A shrewd signing over the offseason, Severino wasn’t dominant in his first postseason start for the Mets, but he did very well to complete six innings in a game that the Mets won. Even if he were to merely replicate that performance, it would help the team’s chances. If he has a gem in him, that’d be even better.
Sánchez (2024): 181.2 IP, 153 K, 44 BB, 11 HR, 3.32 ERA, 3.00 FIP, 80 ERA-
The Phillies opted to start Sánchez in Game 2 because he has significantly better numbers at home than on the road this year. Given the hitter-friendly tendencies of that ballpark, it’s a little surprising, especially since he doesn’t strike that many batters out. But his walk rate his excellent, and his home run rate this year was about one-third of what it was in 2023.
Game 3—Tuesday, October 8: TBD vs. Aaron Nola at TBD on FOX/FS1
At minimum, the Mets will have Sean Manaea available on an extra day’s rest and Jose Quintana on regular rest. One or both of David Peterson and Tylor Megill could be fully rested, too, depending on whether or not they pitch in either of the first two games in the series.
Nola (2024): 199.1 IP, 197 K, 50 BB, 30 HR, 3.57 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 86 ERA-
The 31-year-old had a much better season this year than he did in 2023, as he finished the latter with a 4.46 ERA. Like Sánchez, his strikeout rate isn’t super high, but his walk rate is excellent. Unlike Sánchez, he was prone to giving up home runs this year, as he allowed 1.35 per nine innings.
Game 4*—Wednesday, October 9: TBD vs. TBD at TBD on FOX/FS1
Game 5*—Friday, October 11: TBD vs. TBD at TBD on FOX/FS1
* if necessary