Welcome to the Wild Card round!
The New York Mets (89-73) travel to Wisconsin to play the Milwaukee Brewers (93-69) in a three-game Wild Card series, beginning less than 24 hours after the Mets’ regular season ended with a split doubleheader yesterday at Truist Park.
The fact that the Mets are here at all is somewhat miraculous. After starting the year 0-5 and at one point being 11 games under .500, the Mets turned their year around with the best record in baseball after June 3rd. Even without their ace, Kodai Senga, all season (save five and a third innings), even with suboptimal performances from some of their biggest bats, even with them missing Francisco Lindor for some of the most important games down the stretch, the Mets survived and made the playoffs for the second time in four years and the sixth time in the 21st century.
Having just played – and lost two of three to – the Brewers over the weekend, this series seems like bad deja vu for Mets fans, especially as they are 1-5 against Milwaukee this season. However, there are a few different reasons to be more optimistic about this three game set.
A healthier Francisco Lindor – While Lindor played all series against the Brewers, he did not look right on Friday or Saturday. With a few more games under his belt, Lindor looks more like the player we all expect him to be, and when Lindor is going right, this team wins ballgames.
(Hopefully) less bad umpiring – Friday night saw Sean Manaea getting squeezed something fierce by home plate umpire Ramon De Jesus, which led directly to the grand slam that sunk his game before it really got started. Only one of the six umpire announced (Alex Tosi, Chris Segal, Vic Carapazza, Alan Porter, Mike Estabrook, and Brennan Miller) has a reputation for being less than stellar, and that’s Estabrook who, depending on how the rotation goes, may not even get a game behind the plate.
The bats have woken up – For a moment, disregard game two of yesterday’s doubleheader, as the team was emotionally hung over and just happy to have made the post season. On Sunday and Monday, the Mets scored 13 runs in 18 innings and, on Monday, did so against some very difficult pitching. They still aren’t exactly where we would hope they’d be, with J.D. Martinez, Jesse Winker, and Pete Alonso in particular ice cold right now, but the team looked hopeless at the plate over the first two games against the Brewers.
The running game is still an issue, but there is more experience against it – The running game is to the Brewers what hitting slap singles was to the 2015 Royals: an obnoxious trait that the Mets couldn’t seem to solve. However, with the Mets having just experienced it over the weekend, the Mets have first hand experience and can, hopefully, find a way to counter it. Perhaps that means starting Luis Torrens for a game or two, maybe with Francisco Alvarez DHing to give the practically frozen Martinez a rest. With two lefties going in the series as well, the Brewers will have less opportunities to run wild.
It’s the playoffs, bruh – This is every player’s dream come true. Even for folks who have been to the postseason before, this is a rush, and the way the Mets got in was truly exhilarating. These players are fired up and will be giving it their absolute all. Even with a depleted bullpen for game one (and maybe two), the Mets are going into the playoffs with a head of steam. Let’s do this.
Tuesday, October 1: Luis Severino vs Freddy Peralta at 5:32pm on ESPN
Severino (2024): 182.0 IP, 161 K, 60 BB, 23 HR, 3.91 ERA, 4.21 FIP, 99 ERA-
Although I personally was against it, the Mets made the right move in having Tylor Megill start the first game yesterday, as it allowed Severino to start tonight on regular rest. Severino had a bad start against the Braves last week, which ended his run of September starts going at least six innings and giving up three or fewer earned runs. However, Severino has been a consistent and effective pitcher for most of the season. He’s well rested with a bullpen that isn’t, so going deep is the key here. If he can generate ground balls, the Mets will have a fighting chance.
Peralta (2024): 173.2 IP, 200 K, 68 BB, 26 HR, 3.68 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 89 ERA-
Freddy Peralta started against the Mets on Opening Day, and held the Mets to one run on one hit – a solo shot by Marte – over six innings with eight strikeouts and just one walk. Peralta’s year has been up and down after a good first few weeks, but he’s ultimately been a low fours/high threes ERA guy all year long. His strikeouts are slightly down from last year, and he’s walking half a batter more per inning.
Wednesday, October 2: : Sean Manaea vs Aaron Civale at 7:38pm on ESPN
Manaea (2024): 181.2 IP, 184 K, 63 BB, 21 HR, 3.47 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 88 ERA-
As mentioned earlier, Manaea had a terrible first inning where he got squeezed by the home plate umpire and eventually gave up a grand slam to Rhys Hoskins. But that’s not the story of Manaea this season, who has been the Mets’ ace in Senga’s stead and has stepped up in big moments. Manaea is also good at controlling the running game, which should help keep the Brewers from being too aggressive.
Civale (2024): 161.0 IP, 149 K, 52 BB, 29 HR, 4.36 ERA, 4.74 FIP, 110 ERA-
Civale has’t been going very deep as of late – just three outings hitting the seventh inning since coming to the Brewers from Tampa Bay, and only one of those since August 10th – and gives up more than his fair share of home runs. When he faced the Mets as a member of the Rays, he went four and two-thirds innings, striking out five but giving up seven earned runs. Because it was May, the Mets lost that game anyway.
Thursday, October 4: TBD vs TBD at 838pm on ESPN2
The Mets are carrying both David Peterson and Jose Quintana, so one of them is likely to start this game. Quintana will be on regular rest, with Peterson short a day.