Things aren’t as bleak as the Game 1 score would suggest.
Game 1 of the National League Championship Series did not go the way that the Mets wanted. On paper, a 9-0 blowout loss to the Dodgers started the series off on about as down a note as you can imagine.
But things aren’t as bad as they seem. Really. Here are four reasons why the Mets’ loss isn’t anything to worry about just yet.
If you’re going to lose a game, you want to lose to their best pitcher. Jack Flaherty is the best starter on the Dodgers’ postseason roster by fWAR, 3.2 in 2024 compared to Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 2.8. Since coming over to the Dodgers, he somewhat slipped off his first half pace, but he still had a very good year and is clearly the pitcher they would consider their ace.
With a bullpen game today and Walker Buehler starting Game 3, the Mets have the starting pitching advantage for the next few days. They need to take advantage of this.
The Mets were coming in cold. The Mets came into the game with their longest period of rest since getting a pair of days off on September 25th and 26th. Their pace from September 27 to October 9 had been 12 games in 14 days. While the three days off was a boon to set up their rotation and rest their bullpen, it was an adjustment for a team that hasn’t stopped playing (and winning) for two weeks. With a game under their belts now, as well as another day on California time, the Mets should be able to look a little more lively at the plate today.
The bullpen was used, but not the high leverage pitchers. It isn’t ideal to use five pitchers in a blowout loss, but the usage actually was better than it could’ve been. Kodai Senga was the opener, and he’s not slated to pitch again until at least Game 5, so using him doesn’t throw off your plans too badly. Reed Garrett was excellent in his one and third innings, as was Danny Young, and both had enough rest going in that you likely could use them today, but probably wouldn’t need to with Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek, and Edwin Díaz all fresh.
David Peterson could’ve gone longer, but he wasn’t very effective, so I understand Carlos Mendoza’s desire to not let the game get more out of hand, although the argument could be made to just ride him until the end and save the bullpen. With limited left handed relief options, I understand why Mendoza wants to keep him (somewhat) available for a game down the line.
José Buttó didn’t look great, but he ate the last five outs, preventing Mendoza to have to use another pitcher.
The downside here is that the Mets wasted two of their three long men, neither of whom is likely to be able to go today if needed. If Sean Manaea struggles today, it will be up to Tylor Megill and the trio of backend pieces to get through the Dodgers’ lineup.
A split was always the goal. Look, we all want the Mets to win every possible game, but the rule of thumb tends to be that you want to win one of the first two games on the road in a playoff series, so that you come home tied. It is obviously less stressful if you can win the first game, but this time tomorrow, there is every chance that the Mets are returning home in the exact same situation as when they left Philadelphia tied 1-1 with the Phillies.
The Dodgers are a very good team, but a team with clear flaws and weaknesses. They are beatable, even with the best offensive player on the planet and several other excellent hitters in their lineup. This is especially true if,as theorized on the broadcast last night, Freddie Freeman will sit against Manaea tonight. The Mets had a very bad night, there’s no denying that. But this series just started, and there is plenty of time to come back. That starts tonight.