The post season picture could be decided this weekend
This weekend’s series is Schrödinger’s series: it will either decide the Mets’ postseason future or it will do nothing at all.
I will try to make this as simple as I can. If the Diamondbacks get swept and the Mets win at least one, they’ve secured a playoff spot. If the Mets win one more game than the Diamondbacks this weekend, they’re in. If the Mets win two more games than the Braves this weekend, they’re in.
All other scenarios require at least one game on Monday, but let’s not consider Schrödinger’s doubleheader just yet; we’re still concerned with Schrödinger’s series.
The Mets are the only of the four teams in the hunt for three spots that is playing a team with nothing to play for this weekend. The Brewers are secured as the number three seed in the National League playoffs regardless of what happens in these three games, so their focus is very different than the Mets’. For the Brewers, it is about lining up their starting pitching, getting all their key players some rest, and minimizing anything that could jeopardize their playoff series.
The Mets are playing for a shot at the playoffs in a season where all expectations have been adjusted, abandoned, clung onto, wished for, and, eventually, thrust up a flagpole. This team has been something special, but the Mets have two big questions going into this series.
Will Francisco Lindor play? After leaving the game on September 14 with lower back discomfort, Lindor has appeared in just one game and, earlier this week, admitted that he may not play pain-free this season. Lindor’s bat in the lineup gives the Mets the best chance this weekend, but I also understand the conservative approach of saving him for the games that matter the most which, theoretically, are the double header games on Monday. I honestly wouldn’t be shocked if he’s in the lineup all weekend, or if he sits the entire time either.
Who is starting for both teams? Aside from tonight’s Sean Manaea vs Frankie Montas matchup, neither team has announced a starter for the final two games of the series. The Mets will likely pitch their best available pitchers in those two games, for the Brewers, a bullpen game or a minor league call-up probably makes sense for at least one of the two games.
It’s all very simple: the Mets need to win games this weekend, as many as they can. If they can wrap up their postseason berth this weekend (and the D-backs and Braves play themselves in or out as well), perhaps Rob Manfred will come to his senses and bag the Monday doubleheader at Truist Park. This is not likely, but a boy can dream. But even if the Mets have to fly back to Atlanta, if they’re already in the playoffs, they can throw whoever they want in the doubleheader and close out the season without any stress.
Yeah right.
Friday, September 27: Sean Manaea vs Frankie Montas at 8:10 pm ET on SNY
Manaea (2024): 178.0 IP, 183 K, 61 BB, 20 HR, 3.29 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 83 ERA-
The Mets haven’t lost a Manaea start in six weeks, which is also the last time he didn’t pitch into the seventh inning, and have only lost two Manaea starts since June 20th. He’s been their ace, and this is an incredibly important game. There’s no one else who should be starting this game than Manaea.
Montas (2024): 146.2 IP, 142 K, 63 BB, 23 HR, 4.85 ERA, 4.66 FIP, 113 ERA-
The name Frankie Montas used to strike fear in the hearts of opposing fans, but 2024 Montas hasn’t lived up to his pedigree. In a truly disastrous start against the Diamondbacks on Sunday, he lasted just two and two-thirds innings, giving up eight earned runs, including three home runs. Montas isn’t exactly toast, but he’s the type of pitcher the Mets should, and must, beat up on tonight.
Saturday, September 28: TBD vs TBD at 7:15pm on FOX
Sunday, September 29: TBD vs TBD at 3:05pm ET on SNY
[I just want to note that this is both my 17th wedding anniversary, as well as the 17th anniversary of John Maine’s one-hitter, and therefore, the Mets are obligated to win.]