A series of massive importance is almost certain to be disrupted by heavy rain.
Thanks to an incredible run over the past several weeks and the past several months, the Mets (87-69) have the opportunity to clinch a playoff spot as they play a three-game series against the Braves (85-71) in Atlanta. Whether or not all three games will be played as schedule, however, depends on the weather—with the forecast for the series finale on Thursday looking particularly wet.
If the Mets beat the Braves two times in this series, they’ll punch their postseason ticket, as they’d have the tiebreaker over Atlanta with a minimum of a three-game lead. It’s far from a guarantee that they’ll accomplish that, as anyone who’s followed the Mets knows how poorly games and series can go in for the good guys when the play in Atlanta.
Over the last few months, though, the Mets have been the better team, and they should be feeling good about their chances. Atlanta made a deliberate effort to pitch Cy Young contender Chris Sale against the Mets in this series, and winning a game that he starts won’t be easy. But the Mets’ rotation has been very good lately, and despite his most recent start, David Peterson has given the Mets a good chance to win in the vast majority of his starts this year.
The last time these two teams played, they split a four-game series in Queens in late July. Since the trade deadline, Matt Olson has been the Braves’ best hitter with a 170 wRC+. Ramón Laureano, who Atlanta picked up in late May after the Guardians released him, has a 150 wRC+ over that span, and several other hitters have been well above league average: Marcell Ozuna (143 wRC+), Jorge Soler (132 wRC+), Austin Riley (122 wRC+), and Michael Harris II (122 wRC+).
As for former members of the Mets organization, Travis d’Arnaud has cooled off considerably after getting off to a great start this season. He’s the owner of an 82 wRC+ since the deadline. And Jarred Kelenic has been ice cold, as he has a 58 wRC+ over that span and is down to an 85 wRC+ on the season.
On the pitching side, the Braves’ rotation has a 3.44 ERA since the deadline, the fifth-best mark in all of baseball—just a bit behind the Mets’ rotation’s 3.32 ERA that ranks fourth. And Atlanta’s bullpen has a 3.94 ERA over that span. That ranks 15th, just one spot behind the Mets’ bullpen’s 3.73 ERA.
Despite the directions in which these teams have been trending, this series won’t be an easy one, and both sides look fairly evenly matched. Considering where the Mets were at the end of May, though, the opportunity they they have right now is downright exciting. These are the biggest regular season games that they’ve played in a while—and far more important games than any of us anticipated they’d be just a few months ago.
The weather
As of early this morning, the forecast in Atlanta calls for 1.66 inches of rain on Wednesday and 4.14 inches of rain on Thursday. It’ll be interesting to see if Major League Baseball moves one or both of those games to a neutral site to play them on schedule or if one or both get postponed with the potential of having to make them up on Monday—the day after the regular season is scheduled to end and the day before the Wild Card series is scheduled to begin. The first game of the series is particularly important—just in case neither team plays again until Friday.
Tuesday, September 24: Luis Severino vs. Spencer Schwellenbach at 7:20 PM EDT on SNY
Severino (2024): 178.0 IP, 156 K, 59 BB, 22 HR, 3.79 ERA, 4.20 FIP, 96 ERA-
After hitting a bit of a rough patch in July and August, Severino has been really good in September. Over the course of four starts this month, he’s thrown 25.2 innings with a 2.81 ERA and a 3.56 FIP. Should the Mets make the playoffs, he’ll certainly be one of their favored options to get a start in a big game.
Schwellenbach (2024): 109.2 IP, 118 K, 22 BB, 13 HR, 3.61 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 86 ERA-
The 24-year-old righty is having a rather good rookie season, and while he’s not going to come close to snagging Rookie of the Year honors with Paul Skenes in the league, he could get some down-ballot votes.
Wednesday, September 25: David Peterson vs. Chris Sale at 7:20 PM EDT on SNY
Peterson (2024): 114.0 IP, 93 K, 43 BB, 8 HR, 3.08 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 78 ERA-
After starting the season on the injured list following offseason hip surgery, Peterson was something of a forgotten man—at least among fans—back on Opening Day. But upon his on-time recovery and return to the big league mound, he was good. Lately, he’s been even better, as he has a 2.69 ERA since the beginning of August. If you’re concerned about or skeptical of Peterson, you’ll likely point out that he’s given up four earned runs in two of his last three starts—both of which saw him pulled relatively early.
Sale (2024): 177.2 IP, 225 K, 39 BB, 9 HR, 2.38 ERA, 2.09 FIP, 57 ERA-
Barring a significant shift in his and Zack Wheeler’s numbers in their final starts of the regular season, Sale will probably take home the aforementioned Cy Young. After looking like he’d taken a permanent turn for the worse over the past few years with the Red Sox, Sale has—of course—turned back into his old self in his first year with the Braves. He’s only had two awful starts all season, one of which came in April and the most recent of which came on June 1. In his start against the Mets on July 25, he went 7.1 innings and gave up just two runs.
Thursday, September 26: Sean Manaea vs. Max Fried at 7:20 PM EDT on SNY
Manaea (2024): 178.0 IP, 183 K, 61 BB, 20 HR, 3.29 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 83 ERA-
Given his performance this year and particularly his 3.09 ERA in the second half, Manaea is the pitcher who you’d want to pitch the Mets’ most important game of the season. If this game happens as scheduled despite the awful forecast, it could very well be the most important game the Mets play this year. That would leave him on regular rest for a potential Game 1 of the Wild Card series on Tuesday. How the Mets would handle Manaea’s schedule and rest in the event of a postponement will depend entirely on how they do in the first two games of this series.
Fried (2024): 165.2 IP, 157 K, 55 BB, 13 HR, 3.42 ERA, 3.41 FIP, 82 ERA-
Now 30 years old, the left-handed Fried has put together a solid season thus far. He’s been a little more pedestrian since the beginning of August with a 4.06 ERA, though his 3.17 FIP over that span suggests that he hasn’t really been that much worse. If this game happens, he’s a respectable opponent for Manaea, even if Manaea has been the better pitcher lately.