We lay out the rotation possibilities for the upcoming series
The Mets have an interesting dilemma with their starting rotation ahead of the National League Championship Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers. On the one hand, they can fill four starting spots with reliable pitchers who have all turned in admirable postseason performances, far better than what the Dodgers can offer.
And if they really want to get crazy with it, they can add another three pitchers currently lodged in the bullpen that could make a postseason start if pressed. That’s seven (!) potential starters the Mets could turn to—truly an embarrassment of riches at a point in the season where playoff teams are often scrambling for healthy arms.
But on the other hand, there doesn’t seem to be an obvious first choice among the group right now. It’s a good problem to have, but a problem nonetheless—even if the discussion is relatively low-stakes at the moment. So let’s lay it out:
The front line: Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana, Kodai Senga, and Luis Severino.
Options: José Buttó, Tylor Megil and David Peterson.
With the front line all entering the series healthy, it’s unlikely we’ll see any of the three backup options outside of a piggyback or relief role. So with that in mind, let’s lay out a pitching strategy.
Games 1 and 5: Sean Manaea
Of the four front-line options, the only one that will probably be ruled out of Game 1 entirely is Quintana since he would be on short rest.
The Mets might also rule out Senga if they want him to pitch in a more extended outing at some point in the series. This would likely require him to pitch a sim game or an extensive bullpen session this weekend, which would rule him out of Sunday’s game.
That leaves two realistic options: Manaea and Severino, who both present compelling cases. Manaea was the team’s most valuable pitcher this season by both Baseball Reference WAR (3.0) and FanGraphs WAR (2.8), while Severino has the most postseason experience among all the Mets’ starters (55 2⁄3 innings pitched). But there’s a way the team can leverage both qualities, which would require Manaea to take the Game 1 start on regular rest.
Manaea may not be the team’s “ace,” but he’s sure pitching like one right now. He’s given up three combined runs in his two postseason starts, a Game 2 loss against the Brewers in the Wild Card Series and a Game 3 win against the Phillies in the Division Series. And more importantly, he’s pitched himself out of jams that have kept the Mets’ late-arriving bats from having to do too much work.
Severino could absolutely pitch Game 1 as well, especially with how well he’s pitched in both his road starts. But with no obvious reason to select anyone else, it makes sense to hand Game 1 to the best starter, both throughout the season and at the current moment.
But how has he pitched against Shohei Ohtani? Pretty well, actually. Manaea has allowed two hits and two walks in nine plate appearances against the two-time MVP, while allowing only one RBI and no extra-base hits.
Games 2 and 6: Jose Quintana
“But wait, weren’t we just talking about Severino?” Yes! And Severino could absolutely pitch Game 2 for all the reasons that he could pitch Game 1.
So why Quintana? Here are a few reasons:
- Quintana would be pitching on regular rest for Game 2 much like Manaea would for Game 1.
- Quintana has pitched better on the road (.664 OPS against) than at home this season (.775 OPS against), and both Games 2 and 6 would be on the road.
- Of the three Mets pitchers who have made two starts this postseason, Quintana has pitched the best (0 ER over 11 IP).
That’s a stellar list for a pitcher who was so hot and cold this season.
Many Mets fans would feel weird about naming Quintana the No. 2 pitcher in such an important series, especially with just about every other starter available on normal or extended rest. But sometimes the postseason is about going with the hot hand, no matter how cool and unbothered Quintana looks on the mound.
But how is he against Ohtani? Unclear – Quintana and Ohtani have never faced each other.
Games 3 and 7: Luis Severino
Having Severino start Game 3 is less about Game 3 and more about him being available for Game 7. With the most postseason experience on the roster, having Severino start the highest-leverage game (on the road, no less) would be a smart option.
Severino wouldn’t be the only option for this spot, of course. The Mets could have Severino pitch Game 2 and Quintana Game 3 with few complaints from us.
Also, if Severino would be on extended rest for any game of the series, why not extend that rest even more to Game 3 instead of Game 1?
Yeah, but Ohtani? He has crushed Severino—three hits and two walks in eight career plate appearances, including a home run and a double for a 1.792 OPS. Yeesh.
Game 4: Kodai Senga
Senga started Game 1 of the Division Series because it made sense from a strategic standpoint. Getting Senga enough ramp-up to make him a viable regular postseason option required the Mets to start that ramp-up as soon as possible.
But it also made sense from a narrative perspective. He finished as the ace of the Mets last season and, health-willing, very likely will be the ace of the Mets next season. Giving him Game 1—with a strong bulk guy in Peterson as support—was a win-win for a team adding an All-Star pitcher to their postseason roster.
However, Senga isn’t ready yet to go five full innings, and to get to that point he’ll need to put some work in this weekend that will rule him out of the first few games. That might also rule Senga out of multiple starts in this series, but starting Game 4 would also put him on track for Game 1 of the…World Series?
Wait, are we actually talking about that right now?
Ohtani? Senga and Ohtani have faced off in just one MLB game—and with two walks and a double in three plate appearances, Ohtani won that battle.
But these two also faced each other many times as Pacific League rivals in Japan’s NPB. How did Senga do?
(I have no idea—but I did find this video of Ohtani and Senga facing off in a 2016 NPB pitching duel. Make of that what you will).
The Mets might end up going with a different rotation order than the one laid out here—in fact, the smart money might be on them choosing literally any other rotation order. But the Mets are in an enviable position with so many encouraging options, and it would be difficult to quibble with the order no matter the decision.