This evening’s deadline to exchange filing figures has come and gone. The majority of arbitration-eligible players agreed to contracts to avoid going to a hearing. There were 17 instances where the player and team did not come to terms.
Technically, nothing prevents players and teams from continuing to negotiate. However, virtually every team takes a “file-and-trial” approach to the process. Clubs will mostly refuse to continue talks about one-year deals after this date. They’ll often make exceptions for discussions involving multi-year contracts or one-year deals with a club/mutual option. It’s unlikely that all of these players will end up getting to a hearing, but the majority probably will.
If the sides go to a hearing, a three-person arbitration panel will either choose the player’s or the team’s filing figure. They cannot pick a midpoint. That’s designed to prevent the parties from anchoring by filing at extremely high or low figures. Teams’ preferences for the file-and-trial approach follows a similar logic. The idea is to deter players from submitting a higher number from which they could continue to negotiate until the hearing begins.
The list of players who could go to a hearing this winter (service time in parentheses):
Angels
- Luis Rengifo (5.043): Filed at $5.95MM, team filed at $5.8MM (per Jon Heyman of the New York Post)
- José Quijada (4.046): Filed at $1.14MM, team filed at $975K (per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com)
- Mickey Moniak (3.027): Filed at $2MM, team filed at $1.5MM (per Feinsand)
Brewers
- William Contreras (3.112): Filed at $6.5MM, team filed at $5.6MM (per Feinsand)
Cardinals
- Lars Nootbaar (3.076): Filed at $2.95MM, team filed at $2.45MM (per Feinsand)
- Brendan Donovan (3.000): Filed at $3.3MM, team filed at $2.85MM (per Feinsand)
- Andre Pallante (2.145): Filed at $2.1MM, team filed at $1.925MM (per Feinsand)
Cubs
- Kyle Tucker (5.079): Filed at $17.5MM, team filed at $15MM (per Jesse Rogers of ESPN)
Dodgers
- Alex Vesia (4.078): Filed at $2.35MM, team filed at $2.05MM (per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic)
Nationals
- Nathaniel Lowe (4.145): Filed at $11.1MM, team filed at $10.3MM (per Alden González of ESPN)
Orioles
- Jorge Mateo (5.000): Filed at $4MM, team filed at $3.1MM (per Feinsand)
Padres
- Michael King (5.004): Filed at $8.8MM, team filed at $7.325MM (per Heyman)
Pirates
- Dennis Santana (4.126): Filed at $2.1MM, team filed at $1.4MM (per Feinsand)
- Johan Oviedo (3.079): Filed at $1.15MM, team filed at $850K (per Feinsand)
Rays
- Taylor Walls (3.092): Filed at $1.575MM, team filed at $1.3MM (per Feinsand)
Red Sox
- Jarren Duran (2.155): Filed at $4MM, team filed at $3.5MM (per Feinsand)
Yankees
- Mark Leiter Jr. (4.031): Filed at $2.5MM, team filed at $2.05MM (per Heyman)
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Tucker and the Cubs have the biggest gap in filing figures at $2.5MM. He’s one of the top two free agents in next year’s class and is unlikely to sign an extension, so they’re almost certainly headed to a hearing. King, who will be one of the best pitchers on the open market next winter, is the only other player with more than $1MM at stake depending on the results of the hearing. The smallest divide is the paltry $150K gap between Rengifo’s and the Angels’ respective filing figures. Hearings are scheduled to begin on January 27 and could run through February 14.