The American League Championship Series matchup between the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians showcases the best baseball rivalry that no one knows exists.
Forget that both squads have faced off in the postseason six times since the playoff era began. New York and Cleveland’s history goes back even farther.
It started in 1926, when Cleveland finished second to the Yankees after rallying to within two games of first in the season’s final days. Then, from 1951-53, Cleveland finished second behind New York while the Yankees unleashed a five-year championship dynasty on baseball. Cue winning 111 games and the pennant in ’54, only to be swept by another New York team: Willie Mays and the Giants.
Cleveland then finished second behind the Yankees again in ’55 and ’56, and the flame wasn’t lit again for another 40 years. It kind of makes Sandy Alomar Jr.’s home run and Orlando “El Duque” Hernandez’s clutch start seem insignificant. Greg Bird’s moonshot is merely a footnote to a bigger story.
The next chapter of that story starts today, with a trip to the World Series on the line.
2024 Season: It’s the same narrative every time the Yankees and Guardians face off, be it in the regular season or postseason. Cleveland, though loaded with talent and clearly a good team, plays in a weak division. New York’s lineup is deeper despite Cleveland’s pitching, blah blah blah advantage Yankees. It even happened this year when the Yankees won the season series over the Guardians 4-2.
However, Cleveland’s pitching ranked third in MLB with a 3.61 ERA, and their bullpen was baseball’s best with a stunning 2.57 ERA. It will be interesting to see how New York’s booming bats approach Cleveland’s crafty arms.
Probable pitching matchups
- GAME 1: Alex Cobb (0-1, 6.00 ERA in the playoffs) vs Carlos Rodon (0-1, 9.82)
- GAME 2: Tanner Bibee (0-0, 2.08 ERA) vs Gerrit Cole (1-0, 3.00)
- GAME 3: Clarke Schmidt (0-0, 3.86 ERA) vs TBD
- GAME 4: Luis Gil vs. TBD
- GAME 5: TBD (If necessary)
- GAME 6: TBD (If necessary)
- GAME 7: TBD (If necessary)
Who’s Hot? Steven Kwan continues to be a pest at the top of the Guardians’ lineup and racked up 11 hits against the Tigers in the Wild Card round. Lane Thomas will also look to keep swinging a hot bat after his grand slam practically sealed Game 5.
In New York, you know it’s October because Giancarlo Stanton is swinging a hot bat of his own. He hit .375 with a home run against Kansas City in the ALDS, and Juan Soto is batting a healthy .286 despite no home runs. Maybe that motivates Aaron Judge to reverse his previously poor playoff hitting fortunes.
Who’s Not? Speaking of the Yankee captain, he only hit .154 in the ALDS, but made much better contact in Games 3 and 4, including a booming double to the gap. Similarly, switch-hitting Guardians slugger and longtime Yankees nemesis Jose Ramirez has only hit .188, though he at least has a home run.
New York would also love for Austin Wells to snap out of his fatigue-induced hitting funk and look more like the cleanup hitter that blossomed in 2024. He’s batting just .113 since September 1, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. only .219 over that stretch. Not exactly encouraging when an elite pitching staff is headed to the visitors’ dugout.
Pitching Notes
- Yankees fans know Cleveland Game 1 pitcher Alex Cobb well from his days coming up in Tampa Bay. The 36-year-old was injured most of the season and only started three games. Manager Steven Vogt may be banking on both Cobb’s health and his 3.19 career ERA against the Yankees.
- Luis Gil makes his postseason debut in Game 4, and hopefully under ideal circumstances. The young hard-throwing righty showed incredible promise with a 3.50 ERA and 171 strikeouts in 151.2 innings, but also led MLB with 77 walks. The Guardians notoriously don’t strike out, but they don’t draw a ton of walks either. Expect this to either go very well for Gil, or very wrong very quickly.
- Cleveland’s bullpen put up great numbers all season, and regressed ever so slightly to a 3.21 ERA in the ALDS. The Yankees’ bullpen, on the other hand, didn’t allow a single run to the Royals. Could the Guardians be getting tired, or is a sleeping giant about to wake?
Odds of advancing to the World Series
FanGraphs: Yankees 59.6%, Guardians 40.4%
Baseball-Reference: Yankees 22.9%, Guardians 22.4%
Prediction: The Yankees’ regularly beating Cleveland in the regular season means nothing, and underestimating the Guardians is a mistake. Aside from the pitching, Cleveland hit 185 home runs in 2024, 61 more than last season. We should also note that Cleveland finished dead last in team home runs in 2023.
The Yankees, however, hit an MLB-best 237 home runs. More often than not, that’s what wins in the playoffs, and Cleveland’s lineup doesn’t scream power.
It won’t be an easy series. It will be a grind, hard-fought, and might even come down to the wire. Given all of those factors, cue Frank. Yankees in 6
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