At first glance, the New York Yankees playing the Kansas City Royals seems like any other American League Division series as of late. The Yankees have home field advantage over whichever AL Central squad.
But dig a little deeper, and this is a rivalry reborn. In fact, the Yankees’ first-ever experience in the playoff era came against the Kansas City Royals in 1976. A pennant-clinching home run from Chris Chambliss later, and a rivalry was born. KC and New York would face off in the ALCS four times in five years, with the Royals finally breaking through in 1980.
So many great names shared the field in these series. Ron “Louisiana Lightning” Guidry and Brooklyn-born Royals ace Dennis Leonard. Two future Hall-of-Famers in George Brett and Reggie Jackson. Too many baseball “that guys” from Graig Nettles to Hal McRae to star closers Goose Gossage and Dan Quisenberry.
The rivalry is on the verge of rebirth when the Royals visit the Yankees for Game 1 on Saturday. Except now, the stars are two MVP candidates in Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. The aces are a pair of Coles, the Yankees’ Gerrit and the Royals’ Ragans.
Add a dash of Juan Soto, and we’ve got ourselves a series.
2024 Season. A key difference between the Yankees and Royals from 1976-1980 was despite New York winning three pennants in four series, Kansas City always won the regular season series. The best the Yankees did against the Royals in that time was going 5-5 in 1977. In fact, the only year they won the season series against Kansas City was in 1979, when neither team made the playoffs!
Baseball is now a different game entirely based on offense and, accordingly, the Bronx Bombers went 5-2 against the Royals in 2024. New York also outscored KC 42-24 and ranked first in home runs compared to Kansas City at 20th. This could be crucial given how in the playoffs, home runs are almost always the deciding factor.
Probable pitching matchups
- GAME 1: Michael Wacha (13-8, 3.35 ERA) vs. Gerrit Cole (8-5, 3.41 ERA)
- GAME 2: Cole Ragans (11-9, 3.14 ERA) vs. Carlos Rodon (16-9, 3.96 ERA)
- GAME 3: TBD vs. TBD
- GAME 4: TBD vs. TBD (If necessary)
- GAME 5: TBD vs. TBD (If necessary)
Who’s Hot? Second baseman Gleyber Torres had a down year and continued to be frustrating in the field, but thankfully found his swing in the second half when he stopped selling out for power. He batted .333 in September and .293 after the All-Star Break, evening out at a manageable .257.
On the Kansas City side, look no further than AL batting champ Bobby Witt Jr. He hit .332 with 32 homers, 109 RBI and a 168 wRC+. He also has some extra protection in first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino, who is back for the playoffs after breaking a thumb in August.
Who’s Not? Now would be a great time for Giancarlo Stanton to hit October mode. He’s a .260 career postseason hitter with 11 homers and a .963 OPS, but the big yet fragile slugger only hit .194 in the last month of the season. Shortstop Anthony Volpe also slumped, batting an even worse .176 that month.
The Royals, meanwhile, should be concerned about their entire lineup besides Witt. They swept the Baltimore Orioles in the Wild Card and outscored them by a whopping 3-1. KC having great pitching helped, but the bats need to drum up way more run support against hard-hitting New York.
Pitching Notes
- The Yankees have yet to announce a starter for Game 3 in this series, but smart money says it will be rookie Luis Gil. The fireballing righty led MLB in walks issued, but also posted 10.15 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9). Given that, look for a possible piggy-backing situation involving either Clarke Schmidt or Marcus Stroman. However, one of them may start Game 4 given Nestor Cortes’ injured elbow.
- It is truly incredible just how closely the Yankees and Royals match up in terms of pitching. Both ranked seventh and eighth in team ERA, New York’s 3.74 barely edging Kansas City’s 3.76. However, the Yankees ranked fourth in team strikeouts compared to the Royals at 22nd. This could prove a problem for KC since pitching to contact almost never works in the postseason.
- However, don’t discount the Royals’ staff entirely. Wacha, Ragans, and likely Seth Lugo will start the first three games and their career ERAs against the Yankees are as follows: 2.97, 2.57, and 2.55. New York had better hope the bats haven’t entered early hibernation.
Odds of advancing to ALCS
FanGraphs: Yankees 60.4%, Royals 39.6%
Baseball-Reference: Yankees 52.6%, Royals 25.3%
Prediction: It’s too easy to say the Yankees win this one in a walk. They’re the better team, the Royals play in the weak AL Central, yadda yadda yadda, New York forever. Tell that to Judge, who’s only a .211 career playoff hitter despite being the most dangerous power bat in baseball.
Regardless, even with the Yankees’ history of losing to lesser teams, this is very much their series to lose. KC’s pitching will be tough, but their bats against New York’s rotation seems a tougher matchup. All in all, advantage Yankees. Yankees in 4
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