Let’s start the conversation with closers.
No, not just Yankees fireman Clay Holmes and his MLB-leading ten blown saves. We’ll get to him in a second. Rather, let’s talk about closers from a pure pitching standpoint. As in, what do they bring to a team on a game-by-game basis?
In a nutshell, closers throw anywhere from one to three pitches. On any given night, only one is usually working as intended. Now, add MLB’s near-pathological refusal to implement a universal baseball, a la Japan. Not exactly a recipe for consistency, is it?
Such is the issue with Holmes. He throws his two-planed “demon” sinker that moves like a slider, his regular slider, and a sweeper. Closers need regular work to be effective as it is, so just imagine trying to manage someone like Holmes. His pitches move so much that he’s practically dependent on semi-regular work, thus keeping him fresh down the stretch is harder.
Especially if that includes a month-plus long stretch when his team plays sub-.500 ball and isn’t in many save situations.
Of course, Holmes’ streakiness in the ninth inning has fans raging and panicking about October. How much can the Yankees trust an arm that runs so hot-and-cold?
First things first, blown saves are a paper tiger. The Texas Rangers won the World Series last year despite ranking second in MLB with 33 of them. The Washington Nationals tied for the NL lead with 29 blown saves in 2019, and yet had an incredible underdog run to winning it all.
Next, let’s take a deeper look at Clay Holmes and not so much his ten blown saves, but their respective circumstances. There’s really only one—May 20 vs. Seattle—where his stuff truly wasn’t working and the loss was 100% on his pitching poorly.
Three more times, Holmes entered games in the eighth inning with runners on base and blew the save on the first pitch. Sure, Holmes didn’t make his pitches here, but neither did Luke Weaver or Tommy Kahnle when they needed to.
That leaves Clay Holmes with six blown saves remaining, all with one common fatal flaw: Each occurred with two outs in the ninth inning, including Sunday’s loss to the Tigers. Yankees fans aren’t upset because they think Clay Holmes is a bad pitcher, but rather because he can’t seem to finish games.
Fans can wish for a new closer all they want, but it’s not happening. Clay Holmes still has a 2.88 ERA with 26 saves on the year, and his 2.46 FIP shows he’s been better than some may realize. The Yankees are stuck with him until the season ends and he signs a big free agent contract elsewhere.
HOWEVER—and that’s all-caps for a reason—that doesn’t necessarily mean Holmes automatically gets the ball in the ninth inning come October. In fact, he may only get save opportunities if the matchups allow it.
Let’s look back to 2022, when Holmes took over the closer’s role from Aroldis Chapman. He was near-unstoppable before fatigue set in after the All-Star Break, and he suddenly became more hit-or-miss like most closers. This meant that come playoff time, manager Aaron Boone got creative.
First, Holmes faced the bottom of the lineup and got the last two outs of the Yankees’ 4-1 win over Cleveland in Game 1 of the ALDS. He did the same job in Game 2, but protecting a 2-2 tie.
Next came Game 4 in Cleveland, with the Yankees down 2-1 in the series and protecting a 4-2 lead in the eighth inning, with Cleveland’s 9-1-2 hitters due up. Clay Holmes, asked to face Cleveland’s best hitters after getting Myles Straw to ground out, got the job done. A walk to Steven Kwan was followed by Amed Rosario and Jose Ramirez each striking out.
And then, Wandy Peralta pitched a 1-2-3 ninth for the save. Probably just a one-off, right?
WRONG. In the decisive Game 5, Holmes pitched a 1-2-3 eighth inning against Rosario, Ramirez, and Oscar Gonzalez. Peralta got the ball in the ninth and worked around two singles to finish the game.
Mock Boone all you want for whatever reasons, but this was simple bullpen chess on his part. Clay Holmes was the Yankees’ best reliever in the playoffs, so he faced the opposing team’s best hitters whenever they were up late in the game. In this case, it was the eighth inning.
This strategy works: A team’s best pitcher against another team’s best bats. If a team’s 2-3-4 hitters are due up in the eighth inning, Holmes should expect to face them. He can pitch the ninth too if he gets through the eighth quickly.
No matter how much the fans wish he were, Clay Holmes simply isn’t Mariano Rivera. He isn’t so great at throwing one pitch that he’s more or less automatic. In fact, his sinker’s Stuff+ is at a career-low 101 this year, so that’s something to improve for the postseason.
Until then, all anyone can do is hope Holmes keeps taking the mound and looking a little better each time.
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