What to make of the Atlanta Braves is anyone’s guess.
Their lineup is powerful from top to bottom, but key pieces are fragile. They have some exciting young arms in the rotation, but some of those key arms are fragile.
Put it all together and what do we get? We get an Atlanta Braves team that has a high ceiling and both the bats and arms to keep up…but also a team fragile enough that a season can be quickly derailed. Atlanta got a double-whammy of this last year when Ronald Acuña Jr. tore his other ACL, and strikeout artist Spencer Strider needed Tommy John surgery.
The Braves won 89 games and clinched a Wild Card on the back of the best pitching staff in baseball, led by a resurgent Chris Sale in a Cy Young season. The lineup, on the other hand, was streaky and saw it’s wRC+ drop to 100 from an MLB-best 125 in 2023.
Better baseball is expected from the Bravos this season. Atlanta has restocked and patched cracks in hopes that last year was just a dud. A blip on the radar, a bump in the road.
And in a tougher NL East, Atlanta’s bats had better be ready.
Greatest Addition: Jurickson Profar. Sometimes, a man bets on himself and hits the jackpot. Profar spent last season with the Padres on a one-year, $1 million deal and hit .280 with 24 home runs and a 139 wRC+. His career-best season landed him a three-year, $42 million deal with Atlanta.
Profar can play all around the field despite his not having a strong glove, but expect him to be Atlanta’s everyday left-fielder. Add that he’s a switch-hitter, and Profar can be something of a wild card bat for the Braves. He has plenty of protection in the lineup to turn in another excellent season.
Greatest Loss: Max Fried. The big lefty is a unicorn of sorts. He throws seven pitches with excellent control and racks up strikeouts without blazing velocity. Best of all, Fried is a ground ball pitcher with a career rate (GB%) of 54.4%. He allows less than a home run per nine innings (HR/9), with a career mark of 0.8.
Fried continued pitching well, posting a 3.25 ERA in 2024, and proved above the Braves’ budget in free agency. He signed an eight-year, $218 million deal with the Yankees. Atlanta’s loss is New York’s gain: an ace-quality arm that induces lots of grounders, gets strikeouts, and doesn’t surrender homers.
It’ll be tough to re-establish such a secondary ace behind the rejuvenated Sale.
Greatest Strength: Locked-in lineup. Take a look at the Braves’ long-term window, and their lineup alone is enough to keep them in contention. Every key hitter is under contract for the foreseeable future:
- 1B Matt Olson: Five years, $110 million remaining plus $20 million option
- 3B Austin Riley: Eight years, $176 million remaining plus $20 million option
- OF Ronald Acuña Jr.: Two years, $34 million remaining plus two $17 million options.
- OF Michael Harris II: Six years- $57 million remaining plus $15 and $20 million options.
- C Sean Murphy: Four years, $60 million remaining plus $15 million option
- 2B Ozzie Albies: One year, $7 million remaining, plus two $7 million options.
Granted, this isn’t a flawless group by any means. Albies’ career-high 125 wRC+ in 2023 is sandwiched between a pair of sub-100 wRC+ seasons. Murphy’s been injured in both of his Atlanta seasons and is currently nursing a cracked rib. Harris’ bat regressed as he too battled injuries, and Riley’s wRC+ has dropped each of the last three years.
But when this group is healthy, each one is capable of hitting at least 20 home runs a season. Olson hit 29 with a 117 wRC+ in what was considered a very down 2024, but only because he mashed 54 with a 161 wRC+ a year before. Both he and Riley are usually regular 30-homer threats.
This lineup alone makes the Braves capable of making a deep run in October. They all just need to gel together and stay consistent.
Greatest Weakness: Pitching behind Sale. Chris Sale’s Cy Young campaign was a comeback season for the ages. His MLB-best 2.38 ERA was paired with an even better 2.09 FIP while leading the National League with 225 strikeouts. Not at all bad considering injuries limited Sale to 151 total innings the previous three years.
The issue, however, is two-fold. First, it’s hard to believe Sale will be as dominant again in his age-36 season. Moreover, who fills Fried’s old secondary ace role? Spencer Strider is recovering well from Tommy John surgery, but won’t make his return until mid-late April.
Who steps up? Can Reynaldo Lopez be effective after overachieving to a 1.99 ERA and 2.92 FIP? How will Spencer Schwellenbach fare in his second pro season? Will AJ Smith-Shawver finally break out this season?
The Braves’ bats should win them lots of games. They’ll need more than Chris Sale’s arm to win enough postseason games.
Are we bullish on the Braves in 2025? We certainly should be. The NL East remains a competitive division with the Phillies and Mets equally strong as the Braves. Plus, Atlanta’s lineup alone should have you picking the over on NY sports betting apps.
And all things considered, the Braves probably get back to the playoffs as either the NL East champ or a top Wild Card. But they’ll need a lot more from their pitching staff if they want another World Series ring.
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