Last season, we predicted that the Detroit Tigers’ best chance at the playoffs was slugging their way to a Wild Card, at best.
Well, we were half-correct. The Tigers did indeed clinch a Wild Card berth, but not because of their hitting. Detroit’s bats ranked 24th in home runs and batting average, and 21st with 95 wRC+.
Rather, it was the Tigers’ surprisingly improved pitching that led the way to 86 wins. Led by Cy Young and pitching Triple Crown- winner Tarik Skubal, Detroit’s arms posted a 3.61 ERA. That ranked fourth in baseball, up from 17th last year.
Better yet, the Tigers did more than clinch a Wild Card. They made short work of the once-dominant Houston Astros in the first round before falling to Cleveland in the ALDS.
There’s still a lot of work to be done on the hitting side, but it’s clear that the A.J. Hinch experiment is working in the Motor City. The Detroit Tigers, one of baseball’s OG elder statesmen, are back on the upswing.
And this time, the prey they stalk is the AL Central crown.
Greatest Addition: Gleyber Torres. We’ve been very critical of Torres before, but he still does just enough with the bat to be a good fit for Detroit. The All-Star second baseman signed a one-year, $15 million contract after hitting .257 with a 104 wRC+ and 15 home runs with the Yankees last season.
We should also note last season was a step back of sorts for Torres. One year after increasing his walk rate (BB%) by over three points and cutting his strikeout rate (K%) by eight, he regressed. The BB% stayed the same, but the K% went up six points. Torres also continued to be a black hole in the field.
Now that we’ve given some constructive criticism, how does adding Torres benefit the Tigers? The answer is that his hitting style is oddly suitable for Comerica Park. He’s a strong all-around hitter with soft hands, meaning he could put up numbers with a whole-field approach. His power is mostly down the line anyway, and all of the opposite field home runs at Yankee Stadium are likely doubles in Detroit.
Most important for Torres is for him to realize that big big numbers aren’t expected of him. He’s in Detroit to boost a lineup, get on base, score runs, and hit homers as needed. His goal is to keep his wRC+ in the 110-115 range.
Greatest Loss: Carson Kelly. How much can losing a backup catcher actually hurt, especially when you trade him to Texas in July? Well, given how much the Tigers struggled at bat last year, a lot. Kelly’s wRC+ was right on the border of the league average at 99 last season, but he posted a .716 OPS. That’s well above starter Jake Rogers’ .607 last year.
Now with the Cubs, it’s unlikely Kelly is actually that devastating a loss for the Tigers in the big picture. But with no other big losses and Rogers’ unpredictable bat, his experience could soon be missed.
Greatest Strength: Wide open window. The Tigers may seem something of an overnight sensation or Cinderella story, but that’s only half true. Detroit has enough talent in the room now and down on the farm that their competitive window is very much open. A lot also depends on how the soft AL Central pans out this year, but Detroit has just as much a chance as the rest so long as they hit.
Colt Keith and Jace Jung should both take big steps forward this year. Maybe Spencer Torkelson will find his power stroke again. No. 1 prospect Jackson Jobe could make the starting rotation out of spring training, and we’ll probably see Max Clark and Kevin McGonigle (Nos. 2 & 3) in the next year or two.
The Tigers have laid themselves a nice, long runway to get to the postseason and beyond. The only question is if their bats will provide enough fuel for takeoff.
Greatest Weakness: Pitching depth. The Tigers’ run to the playoffs last year was largely on an unconventional strategy. At some point late in the season, Hinch resorted to a bunch of short outings/bullpen games behind the established ace Skubal. This made Skubal the team leader in starts at 31, followed by Reese Olson’s 22.
To be fair, the Tigers gave Skubal some more support this offseason when they re-signed Jack Flaherty after trading him to the Dodgers last summer. But even then, Flaherty has a history of shoulder trouble and is far from a lock to throw 150 innings. Olson only pitched 112.1 and will be expected to give a lot more.
This won’t be so crucial an issue if the Tigers hit and the bigger bats like Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene stay healthy. However, Jobe is the only pitching prospect who’s MLB-ready. This means keep an eye out for Detroit trading for a spare arm in July.
Are the Detroit Tigers the new kings of the AL Central jungle? Putting it all together, the Detroit Tigers are more than capable of getting back to the playoffs in 2025. However, it will probably be as another Wild Card, not AL Central champions. The lineup has power, but it would take several players breaking out and/or overachieving to put the Tigers over the top.
Rival teams like Cleveland and Kansas City, on the other hand, are more balanced. Both reached the playoffs last year using a more traditional playbook compared to Hinch’s late-season pitching party tricks. The Tigers have to out-hit both to win the division. A tough task indeed, considering they’re still figuring out the lineup’s go-to power hitter.
None of this means the Tigers have no path but to sneak into the playoffs at the last second again. They are, at their core, a good young team headed in the right direction. If the pitching grows accordingly and the lineup finds its home run power, they should at least make it back to the Division Series.
FOR FULL STORY ON STANDARD WEBSITE: ESNY’s MLB Preview 2025: Detroit Tigers moving up the food chain | Elite Sports NY