Nothing about the Cleveland Guardians makes sense.
Cleveland is a fairly major city, yet the team hasn’t hasn’t ever fielded an Opening Day payroll above $134 million. The Guardians always seem to be in the postseason conversation, yet haven’t fielded Top 10 run-producing lineups since the Juiced Baseball Craze from 2016-2018. They’re great at developing players, but rarely keep any long-term.
And through it all, the Guardians just keep winning. Maybe the AL Central is just that weak a division. Or maybe Cleveland’s pitching staff is just that good. The Guardians’ arms have only fallen out of the Top 10 in staff ERA twice since 2014.
This year could be different. The Central is more competitive than it has been in years. Of its five teams, all but the White Sox are capable of winning the division.
Does Cleveland have enough to guard its top contender status from oncoming Tiger attacks from the north and Kansas City’s Royal brigade from the west?
Greatest Addition: Paul Sewald. How do you improve a team that reached the ALCS in 2024 while also having an MLB-best 2.57 bullpen ERA? Simple. You bring in Paul Sewald on a one-year deal with an option to serve as both a setup man and potential backup closer should Emmanuel Clase hit a rough patch.
Sewald spent last year with the Diamondbacks and managed a team-leading 16 saves despite a 4.31 ERA. He’s turns 35 in May and is no youngster, but should be a fine fit in Cleveland. He’s losing velocity on his fastball and sweeper, but Guardians pitching coach Carl Willis can work around that.
Adding Sewald ensures that win or lose, Cleveland will once again have a top-tier pitching staff.
Greatest Loss: Josh Naylor. It’s never easy losing both the clubhouse spark plug and a reliable power bat. Naylor was both as he mashed a career high 31 home runs and 108 RBI in 2024, and with infectious energy. It was also the first season in which Naylor appeared in more than 150 games.
Unfortunately for Naylor, 2025 is his contract year and the Guardians wanted to cut costs. He was traded to Arizona for right-hander Slade Cecconi in December and promptly agreed to a $10.9 million deal.
A trade might have been inevitable, but losing Naylor could be a game-changer in Cleveland, and not in a good way. Aside from his career bests in 2024, Naylor was basically a lock for at least 20 homers a year. He was the only Cleveland hitter besides Jose Ramirez to break that mark last season.
But more on that in a minute.
Greatest Asset: Player development. The Cleveland Guardians, as we’ve said, are an anomaly. This is a team built on old school principles, almost to a fault, and yet they manage to contend year after year. Forget having a power-heavy lineup top to bottom, Cleveland would rather get on base and not strike out while continually building strong pitching.
This is how Steven Kwan becomes an All-Star leadoff man and three-time Gold Glove outfielder despite never having an OPS above .800. Or how prospects like Kyle Manzardo get called up midseason and slowly become lineup fixtures.
Cleveland may not be a traditional World Series contender. However, they’re seemingly perpetual youth makes them all the more exciting a team.
Greatest Weakness: Power-light lineup. With Naylor gone, the Cleveland Guardians’ only reliable power bat is Jose Ramirez. This is after the whole lineup ranked 12th in baseball with 185 home runs, but that’s an outlier. Though the Guardians also finished 12th in 2021, their usual home run ranking is either in the middle or near the bottom of the barrel. They haven’t been a proper Top 10 power-hitting team since 2013, long before juiced baseballs.
So who steps up behind Ramirez this year? Does Carlos Santana turn in another 20-home run campaign after turning 39 in a month? Will Lane Thomas find his stroke again? Will Steven Kwan match or exceed his career-high 14 dingers last year, or was that a one-off? What about Manzardo’s sophomore season?
The pitching staff is strong and will only be boosted by Shane Bieber’s return from Tommy John, but that’s not enough. History proves this going all the way back to baseball’s oldest days. The teams that go the farthest are the ones that hit the most home runs. Cleveland just doesn’t have the means to hit enough.
So who are the Cleveland Guardians actually? It’s hard to say because you’ll recall that last year, I predicted the rebuild was imminent. And cue the Guardians winning the Central and advancing to the ALCS with first-year skipper Stephen Vogt. There’s every chance the same could happen this year, especially if Manzardo keeps developing as a lefty power bat.
But unfortunately for the Guardians, this season looks more like the start of the end of the line and that’s more than enough reason to be careful with New York sports betting and bet bear-ish. Naylor is a big loss and there is no clear picture as to who will pick up the slack. Both the Tigers and Royals have improved after playoff runs last season. We can’t rule out a surprise from the Twins either.
Things can always change, and acquiring a bat at the deadline is always likely. But even then, it’s hard to imagine this team winning the division. In 2025, it’s Wild Card or bust in Cleveland.
FOR FULL STORY ON STANDARD WEBSITE: ESNY’s MLB Preview 2025: The Cleveland Guardians just keep winning | Elite Sports NY