You’d never know it, but the Milwaukee Brewers have won the NL Central in three of the last four seasons.
It’s not as though everyone’s favorite small-business professional sports franchise does much in the postseason anyway. The Brewers have never advanced past the NLDS in that stretch and haven’t been to an NLCS since 2018. No matter how talented or well-managed this team is, they just can’t take that extra step.
That’s because, surprise surprise, this team just doesn’t spend money in free agency. Any team improvements have to be from the right trade at the right time, or perhaps a group of minor leaguers all hitting at once. My Baseline Baseball podcast co-host, ESNY alum James Kelly, likens it to buying lottery tickets: The winningest teams buy a lot, and teams like the Brewers buy practically none.
That didn’t stop Milwaukee from winning the division yet again in 2024, their first year under manager Pat Murphy. And better yet, the Brewers ranked eighth with a .248 team batting average and seventh in runs scored. Middling power-hitting, however, meant a slightly above-average 104 wRC+, and cue falling to the surprise Wild Card New York Mets in the Wild Card round.
Let’s call it out right now: The Milwaukee Brewers have gotten complacent in how they operate. They’re still a very talented team overall but in a wide open NL Central, winning the division won’t come as easily in 2025.
Greatest Addition: Nestor Cortes. The Brewers lost former NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes in a trade with the Orioles last year, and they still finished fifth with a 3.65 team ERA. That number figures to either maintain or improve with the addition of Cortes. Milwaukee acquired the lefty and infielder Caleb Durbin from the Yankees for All-Star closer Devin Williams.
Cortes was far from his breakout, ace-like stuff in 2022, but still bounced back after missing most of 2023 with shoulder trouble. He had a 3.77 ERA while pitching a career-high 174.1 innings and his fastball-cutter-sweeper mix should play well in the National League.
His downside is being a fly-ball pitcher, and home runs win games. His groundball rate (GB%) must be higher than last year’s 31.1%.
Greatest Loss: Willy Adames. Losing Williams is tough, but closers are interchangeable. A bigger loss is Adames, the star shortstop who was a key piece of the Brewers’ offense last season. Adames hit .251 and set new personal bests with 32 home runs and 112 RBI with a 119 wRC+.
That proved way too rich for Ma and Pa Milwaukee’s blood, so the 29-year-old Adames walked in free agency. He signed with the Giants for seven years, $182 million and figures to be a key bat in the middle of their lineup. In Milwaukee, Joey Ortiz will move to shortstop from third base.
Ortiz turned in a solid year himself in 2024, batting .239 with 11 home runs and a 104 wRC+ in his first season both with the Brewers and as a lineup regular. However, don’t expect him to come close to Adames’ usual 20-25 home run range.
Greatest Strength: A cheap lineup. Finding the highest-paid player on the Brewers is easy: it’s Christian Yelich. However, what’s shocking is Yelich will only make about $24 million a year until his deal expires in four years. He signed a team-friendly seven-year, $188 million extension (Nine-year, $215 million total) back in 2020.
Look behind Yelich, and you’ll see the hitting only gets less expensive. Rhys Hoskins, who hit 26 home runs in his first year back from ACL surgery, earns $17 million on an expiring contract. Then comes Jackson Chourio, who signed an $82 million deal before appearing in a single major league game!
The rest of the Brewers’ bats are either under team control or in their arbitration years. If the team hits well again, this is a literal dream position for team president and general manager Matt Arnold.
Greatest Weakness: Too cheap to compete. Not to beat the dead horse again and again and again, but the Milwaukee Brewers’ lack of spending will soon be their undoing. Still not convinced? Let’s take a look at the rest of the division.
The Cubs are technically rebuilding, but showed they’re still serious about competing when they acquired outfield slugger Kyle Tucker from the Astros. The Cardinals are a mess, but have enough talent there to possibly overachieve over .500 again. Cincinnati has future Hall of Famer Terry Francona managing them. Pittsburgh is even cheaper than Milwaukee, but they at least have a vision for success based on ace Paul Skenes and a high-upside lineup.
Not the Brewers. They’re the Colorado Rockies with better player development. The farm system works down to the core, so why spend excessively outside the organization?
Meanwhile, every other NL Central team is at least moderately active in free agency and spends as needed. Not the Brewers, for that would be too un-Midwest mom-and-pop.
Is it last call in Milwaukee? It’s tough to say because while the NL Central certainly has talented teams, it’s hard to call any of them better than the Milwaukee Brewers. Either way, there are enough question marks with the lineup behind Yelich and Chourio that winning the Central seems unlikely.
Peralta and Cortes are fine, but how will Brandon Woodruff look after missing a season with shoulder trouble? Can Yelich both stay healthy and keep his production up enough to carry the lineup?
It’s truly anybody’s race in the NL Central, which is truly sad for Milwaukee. All other teams spent the offseason filling up with premium, while the Brewers filled up with boring regular. Don’t pay them too much attention on NY sports betting apps.
FOR FULL STORY ON STANDARD WEBSITE: ESNY’s MLB Preview 2025: The Midwest mom-and-pop Milwaukee Brewers | Elite Sports NY