Another season upon us, another where we expect the San Diego Padres to make some noise.
“Some” being the key word, of course. The Padres, for all their star power, still have to compete with the Los Angeles Dodgers’ literal baseball machine in the NL West. The Arizona Diamondbacks are also starting to come together as a sleeper team.
Thus, all general manager AJ Preller can do is what he does best: Try to outwork every other team and damn the expense. Ownership is willing to spend, so have at it, right?
Well, things could be changing soon. Owner Peter Seidler passed away in the offseason. His brothers have since taken over. And yet, Seidler’s widow claims she and her children are being frozen out despite also owning a piece of the team. Not exactly the kind of drama a team wants ahead of a season, is it?
Lucky for the Padres, the talent is there. They tied with Arizona as the best hitting team in baseball in 2024. San Diego also ranked in the Top 10 in both runs scored and home runs, and even struck out the least.
Now, we’ll see if a slightly boosted pitching staff is enough to not only get them back to October, but past the rival Dodgers.
Greatest Addition: Nick Pivetta. San Diego’s arms ranked 12th with a 3.86 staff ERA, which isn’t bad, but needs guys who can eat significant innings. Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Matt Waldron all set career highs in innings pitched last season, and now Pivetta adds some durability alongside the veteran Yu Darvish.
Pivetta inked a four-year, $55 million deal and spent the last four-and-a-half years with the Red Sox. He managed a respectable 4.14 ERA despite a 6-12 record, but his expected ERA (xERA) was 3.51. Not bad considering Fenway Park is a literal matchbox!
Furthermore, adding Pivetta means the Padres have five starters who can all potentially throw 150 innings. That will be key as the season winds down and the playoffs approach.
Greatest Loss: Ha-Seong Kim. Forget Jurickson Profar and the breakout season which led to him getting paid by the Braves. Ha-Seong Kim and his impeccable infield defense leave a big void in San Diego’s lineup and infield. Kim hit .230 with 11 home runs, 47 RBI and even 22 steals before going down with a shoulder injury in August.
But again, it’s Kim’s defense that is the loss. He was the primary shortstop last year, but can also play second and third base well. His career defensive runs saved (DRS) and outs above average (OAA) across all three positions are +48 and +21.
But shortstop was his first choice and the Padres didn’t make an offer. Thus, Kim inked a two-year deal with the Rays with an opt-out just because they offered him the position once he’s recovered. He won’t play till about May but one way or another, the Padres have to replace him with Xander Bogaerts’ black hole defense.
Greatest Strength: Mike Shildt. A lineup featuring Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Xander Bogaerts means managing big talents and often bigger personalities. This requires a great baseball mind who can look past it all and just focus on the baseball of everything. The old school Shildt epitomizes that.
Shildt managed the Cardinals from 2018-21 before being fired, and as a Manager of the Year finalist to boot. He subsequently joined predecessor Bob Melvin’s staff the following year, and was promoted when Melvin defected north to the Giants.
It was the right move. San Diego went from being barely above .500 one year to 93 wins the next. And right after trading Juan Soto, too. Shildt simply knows how to lead regardless of who’s on the roster.
Greatest Weakness: Pitching depth. Even in adding Pivetta, the Padres’ pitching is far from a sure thing. Cease is in his contract year and it’s honestly shocking he hasn’t yet been traded. Waldron has room for improvement, but is probably closer to his ceiling than we realize. Darvish can still pitch, but is now 38 years old.
Additionally, fan favorite Joe Musgrove is out for the season recovering from Tommy John surgery.
That leaves a lot on King to put up consistent ace numbers when the Padres really don’t have many reliable starters behind the core. Randy Vasquez has encouraging stuff, but hasn’t found his groove as a starter. Jhony Brito is a better bullpen arm, and so is No. 7 prospect Henry Cruz.
Shildt and Preller had better hope their arms stay healthy. One starter going down could be enough to derail the season.
Can the San Diego Padres take that step forward in 2024? This Padres team can win as currently constructed. Remember, they upset the Dodgers in the 2022 NLDS. The pitching, though thin, has also improved where needed. We should also assume Preller likely trades Cease in the summer, and that at least one pitcher in the minors will turn enough heads to make some starts.
Thus, while it seems very likely that the Padres make the playoffs as a Wild Card, the team must stay healthy. Forget Jackson Merrill having a sophomore slump, or wondering if Luis Arraez wins a fourth consecutive batting title. A viable emergency sixth starter, preferably one in the minors, is necessary.
FOR FULL STORY ON STANDARD WEBSITE: ESNY’s MLB Preview 2025: What’s the plan with the San Diego Padres? | Elite Sports NY