The scene is Jacobs Field in Cleveland, Ohio on Saturday, October 10, 1998.
Cleveland’s beloved then-Indians lead the series 2-1 over the strong, slugging New York Yankees. A win tonight would be a near-coup, what with New York having won 114 regular season games. Plus, Cleveland has the momentum after battering so-called “big game pitcher” Andy Pettitte in a 6-1 win in Game 3.
And the Yankees answer by throwing some random rookie sensation on the mound in Game 4? Not a great look after Game 3, and also losing Game 2 thanks to Chuck Knoblauch’s fatal mistake.
Joking tone aside, everyone remembers how that turned out. The rookie sensation starting Game 4 was none other than Orlando “El Duque” Hernandez, who took the mound and silenced the crowd. Using his signature high leg kick, Hernandez pitched seven shutout innings and gave up just three hits while striking out six.
New York won the game 4-0 and evened the series before winning Games 5 and 6 to clinch the pennant, and later the World Series.
Now, history is kinda sorta repeating itself. The Yankees and Cleveland are once again facing off in the ALCS and Game 4 takes place in Cleveland on Friday evening. The only difference is that New York leads the series 2-1, but Cleveland did hammer its way to the win in Game 3.
And instead of El Duque, the Yankees have rookie fireballer Luis Gil taking the mound. Can he channel history and put the Yankees within a win of the World Series?
He certainly had a strong rookie campaign, especially coming back from Tommy John surgery. Gil went 15-7 with a 3.50 ERA in 29 starts and struck out 171 hitters in 151.2 innings. The downside, he also led the majors in walks. Rookie fatigue and opposing teams figuring out his stuff also humbled him down the line. Remember, Gil was 9-1 with a 2.04 ERA in his first 14 starts.
However, we do have a smaller sample. Gil did indeed face the Guardians at Yankee Stadium in August and struggled. He gave up three runs on three hits and struck out three in three innings…and walked six. The Yankees ultimately lost the game 9-5 in extra innings.
That doesn’t inspire much hope in Luis Gil for tonight, but that August start also has something of an asterisk. After that game, Gil was placed on the injured list with a bad back. He returned in September and went 4-1 in five starts, but with a 4.00 ERA and 5.39 FIP.
Here is the challenge for Luis Gil, a strikeout pitcher facing a team built on contact. He can’t let the walks get him down, nor can he be too trigger happy with the fastball or slider. That’s a recipe for hanging balls up in the zone and getting hit hard.
Rather, expect Gil to feature his power-changeup a lot more in Game 4. Hernandez was something of a junkballer himself and beat Cleveland with breaking pitches in ’98.
What’s more, he saw fairly mixed results in two starts against Cleveland in the regular season. El Duque was 0-1 with a 3.77 ERA across those two games and gave up more than a hit per inning, a 1.46 WHIP.
He was 12-4 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in the regular season.
The parallels are there. Luis Gil and Orlando Hernandez each had strong rookie seasons with their ups and downs. Maybe even more downs for Gil simply based on how much the game has evolved in 25 years.
But he’s had a long rest and plenty of time to prepare. The Guardians didn’t see him at his worst, nor his best. Somewhere in between on account of an injury. He’s a competitor and knows what’s on the line in this game.
Now, let’s see which version of Luis Gil shows up to the party.
FOR FULL STORY ON STANDARD WEBSITE: Luis Gil could be El Duque 2.0 in Yankees-Guardians Game 4 | Elite Sports NY