Clarke Schmidt of the New York Yankees has had a stellar year, finishing the regular season with a 2.85 ERA. After setting a career-high in innings in 2023, Schmidt only reached 85.1 innings due to a strained lat. Despite a limited workload, Schmidt made significant strides as a starting pitcher. Some elements still need improvement, of course. But prior to suffering the lat strain in late May, Clarke Schmidt was pitching at a high level as he was within the top 35 of starting pitchers ranked by fWAR.
The Development Of Clarke Schmidt
Figuring Out Left-Handed Hitters
Schmidt’s biggest improvement from 2023 to 2024 was his approach and execution against the opposite-handed hitter. He possesses the type of arsenal that can dominate right-handed hitters and be passable against left-handed hitters. Schmidt is a sinker-sweeper archetype pitcher, and those pitches are typically not as effective against opposite-handed hitters. He compliments his sinker and sweeper with a cutter and knuckle curveball.
Last season, only his knuckle curveball allowed a lower than .300 wOBA against left-handed hitters. Everything was getting crushed, including his cutter, a good option against the opposite hand, and a sweeper, which is more often used against the same hand. He distributed his pitches fairly evenly, with the cutter being the highest. His two best swing-and-miss pitches were his cutter and knuckle curve. On the other hand, predictably, the pitches that got hit the hardest were his sinker and sweeper. Here are his improvements from 2023 to 2024:
- 2023 – .376 wOBA vs LHH, .292 wOBA vs RHH
- 2024 – .307 wOBA vs LHH, .285 wOBA vs RHH
His pitch usage against left-handed hitters remained largely similar except for a few minor tweaks in 2024. Despite the platoon splits, Schmidt still was opting to throw his sinker and sweeper a decent amount of the time. Ultimately, the difference was that the results of his two fastballs significantly improved. His sinker allowed just a .269 wOBA against left-handed hitters after being over .330 in 2023. While the results on the sinker were much better, the pitch was getting hit harder than in 2023. So, the improvement of the sinker may not be sustainable.
Location And Stuff Improvements
Locational adjustments were a big part of Schmidt’s improvement with his cutter and sinker against left-handed hitters. He focused on throwing his sinker outside and not being afraid to elevate it. It did not generate an extreme amount of ground balls or swing-and-miss, but left-handed hitters struggled to produce against that approach. As for his cutter, he worked to establish the top half of the zone and showed the ability to command it to both sides of the plate. Everything under the hood looks good for the cutter as well. The pitch worked incredibly effectively to produce a great amount of swing and miss (17.1% swinging strike rate) and prevent hard contact (32.1% hard hit rate).
His Stuff+ grades on his cutter, sweeper, and knuckle curveball all showed improvement and ranked in the top 15 of those pitch types. The knuckle curveball ranks as the best by Stuff+ and is an absolute weapon.
Clarke Schmidt, Nasty 85mph Knuckle Curve.
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— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 24, 2024
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When able to get ahead of left-handed hitters, Schmidt has an out pitch and has shown confidence in it. In addition, his cutter serves as an excellent out pitch to both sides while also being a pitch he can use to get ahead of hitters. While his knuckle curveball generated many whiffs against left-handed hitters, it operated as more of a hard contact suppresser than right-handed hitters. Conveniently, he also yields one of baseball’s best sweepers that generates a ton of swing and miss against the same hand. This form of Schmidt has a complimentary arsenal with great stuff that works against both hands. Everything appears fairly rosy, but there are still some questions Schmidt must answer.
Eat More Innings
Clarke Schmidt has only pitched 6 or more innings in a start only 6 times since becoming a starter in 2023. Like many pitchers, Schmidt is a victim of the third time through the order penalty, with his wOBA against nearing .400. He, along with pitchers that have similar arsenals, experience this more extreme split due to their arsenal not being deep enough, plus other factors. Hitters getting another look and becoming more familiar is, of course, a big contributor.
Although Schmidt’s walk rate rose a tad in 2024, he significantly increased his strikeout rate. Walking and striking out more hitters as a whole can certainly drive up the pitch count. Schmidt had a fair share of growing pains in his first year as a starter. He averaged just under 5 innings a start last season. He improved that mark to about 5 1/3 innings a start in 2024. While that still does not seem like a lot, it is above the major league average of 5.22 innings. Furthermore, he flashed the capability of going deep into starts with 8 shutout innings in Minnesota prior to getting injured.
Clarke Schmidt is a pitcher who could have a breakout next season, similar to how Tanner Houck did in 2024. Houck is a very different pitcher mechanically from Schmidt. However, they do have similarities in their arsenal, such as the transition between starting and relieving and extreme splits the third time through the order. Schmidt is an important piece of the pitching puzzle for the Yankees as they enter the ALDS and will look to make more strides in 2025.
Main Photo Credits: Peter Aiken-Imagn
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