It doesn’t take long in a 162-game season to find out who’s got it—and who might not. For Yankees‘ veteran right-hander Carlos Carrasco, the early signs in 2025 haven’t been promising. With a thin rotation already operating without Gerrit Cole, the Yankees took a flyer on Carrasco this offseason, hoping he had something left in the tank. But after two appearances, the Yankees may be reaching a breaking point.
Carrasco’s Declining Performance Raising Alarms
The 38-year-old has struggled to find his footing. Across just 11.2 innings, Carrasco has given up 16 hits, 10 earned runs, five home runs, and six walks. His ERA currently sits at 7.71. His velocity has dipped below 92 mph, way down from his prime. When hitters know what’s coming and aren’t afraid of being blown away, it’s a dangerous game—and right now, Carrasco is losing it.
The Yankees gave him an opportunity to provide innings while the rotation healed up, but the returns have been underwhelming at best. It’s not just the results, it’s the eye test. Carrasco doesn’t look confident, and the quality of contact he’s allowing suggests batters are seeing the ball too well.
Schmidt’s Return Could Trigger a Change
Help is on the way.
Clarke Schmidt is nearing a return and is expected to begin a rehab assignment this weekend. He tossed 46 pitches in a simulated game earlier last week and could be back in the rotation by next weekend. That timeline aligns perfectly with a potential rotation shuffle.
Last season, Schmidt posted a 2.85 ERA over 85.1 innings, striking out nearly 10 batters per nine and leaving 80% of baserunners stranded. He also sported a 40.5% ground ball rate, showing that when healthy, he’s not just serviceable—he’s a legitimate mid-rotation arm. His return gives the Yankees a justifiable reason to reconsider Carrasco’s role.
Warren Deserves a Longer Look
If there’s one thing the Yankees should prioritize right now, it’s development with upside.
Will Warren, the rookie right-hander, looked poised and effective in his MLB debut against the Diamondbacks, allowing just one hit over five innings. He had some control issues, but he battled through them and gave the team a chance to win. However, he gave up four earned runs in four innings against the Pirates last week, which wasn’t exactly inspiring.
While he’s not yet a finished product, betting on Warren’s growth in real time may provide more long-term value than trying to squeeze another five-inning outing out of Carrasco every five days. If the Yankees want to contend—and survive the early-season storm—they need arms they can trust to trend upward, not downward.
Time to Make a Call
Whether it’s a demotion to the bullpen as a long reliever or even a full DFA, the Yankees are approaching a fork in the road with Carrasco. They made a smart bet with limited risk, but that doesn’t mean they have to keep riding it when better options are knocking.
With Schmidt’s return imminent and Warren showing flashes of big-league readiness, Carrasco could find himself the odd man out—sooner rather than later.