The Yankees didn’t just plug a roster hole when they signed Adam Ottavino to a major league deal on Tuesday—they may have stumbled into a potential bullpen asset hiding in plain sight.
With closer Devin Williams stepping away for paternity leave, the Bombers needed a fresh arm. And while Ottavino might not have the flash he once did, his underlying numbers suggest there’s still plenty of life in that 39-year-old right arm.
Sneaky Good Metrics Beneath the Surface
On the surface, a 4.34 ERA from last season with the Mets might raise eyebrows. But if you dig a little deeper, Ottavino’s stat sheet reads like a sabermetric sleeper hit.
He ranked in the 92nd percentile in expected batting average (xBA), meaning hitters had a hard time squaring him up, even when they made contact. Add in his 88th percentile ranking in average exit velocity and 81st percentile in hard-hit rate, and it’s clear that hitters weren’t exactly lighting him up.
That sweeping slider? Still doing damage. Opponents hit just .225 against it last year, and his sinker was just as stingy—holding hitters to a .231 batting average and an even stingier .269 slugging percentage.
It’s not about velocity with Ottavino. His sinker averages just over 92 mph, but his ability to induce soft contact and rack up strikeouts (86th percentile) makes him a compelling addition, especially in lower-leverage situations.
A Stopgap… or Something More?
The Yankees are framing the move as a temporary fix. “With Devin, it felt like an opportunity to get him in here and excited to have him back,” manager Aaron Boone said.
But Ottavino might turn this short-term gig into something more permanent if he proves effective. After all, his 3.21 ERA in 2023 is much closer to his career norm—and if he can give the Yankees a few quality weeks, the front office may have a tough time parting ways when Williams returns.
Ottavino’s Familiar Territory
Let’s not forget, Ottavino is no stranger to the Bronx. He last suited up for the Yankees in 2019, posting a sparkling 1.90 ERA over 66.1 innings. While he’s not that same guy, the blueprint is still there.
If the Yankees can get even a glimpse of that vintage version—or just steady, ground-ball-heavy middle relief—they’ll have more than gotten their money’s worth. For a team already dealing with its fair share of bullpen injuries and roster shuffling, a steady veteran presence might be exactly what the doctor ordered.