Ben Rice has continued to dominate for the Yankees, pulverizing his fifth home run of the season last night and remaining red-hot to start the season. Reports came out during Spring Training that the Yankees viewed Ben Rice as a middle-of-the-order bat and he’s been better than anyone could have reasonably expected. He’s sixth in the league in OPS and fourth in wRC+ entering play today, as 33% of his plate appearances have ended with either a barrel or a walk up to this point.
He’s hammering the baseball on a regular basis, the swing decisions are elite, and the contact rates have remained impressive despite swinging much harder than he did last season. This isn’t how things were supposed to go for Ben Rice, a 12th Round Pick in the 2021 MLB Draft who didn’t play his final two years of collegiate ball because of the pandemic. A hitter with true star traits, Rice has displayed a feel for hitting that could result in him anchoring the top of the lineup for a decade.
Yankees’ Flier on Ben Rice is Paying Off Big-Time Right Now
Despite being drafted in 2021, Ben Rice had just 90 games under his belt at the Minor League level entering the 2023 season, none of which came above Single-A—a death sentence for the careers of most prospects. Rice would start the year in High-A with the Hudson Valley Renegades, but an injury would sideline him from the end of April through the start of July. The Yankees didn’t lose faith, and neither did Ben Rice, who would work through his rehab assignment and earn a promotion to Double-A.
If there’s one Minor League affiliate to associate Ben Rice with, it’s the Somerset Patriots, as he went scorched earth against the Eastern League to put his name on the map. He would slash .328/.403/.651 with a 183 wRC+ across 47 games, launching 16 home runs with 48 runs batted in as the Yankees would take notice quickly. There was a plan to keep him at catcher if possible, but they also had him learn first base to provide some extra versatility if the team needed some help at the position down the road.
A strong 2024 campaign would result in a swift promotion to the Major Leagues in 2024, and while he slumped to the point of being demoted back to Scranton, the Yankees saw a lot of encouraging signs. He made contact at an above-average clip, hit the ball hard, and worked a lot of walks despite a batting average below the Mendoza Line, and that kept the Bronx Bombers hooked entering 2025.
Ben Rice is swinging the bat 4.3 MPH harder on average this year than he did last year which is resulting in a lot more damage against fastballs. His raw power has improved as well, seeing a 6.1 MPH improvement in Average EV and a 2.4 MPH improvement in Max EV from last season. Swinging harder and hitting the ball harder are associated with higher slugging percentages, but they also result in higher batting averages. Luis Arraez is the only .300 hitter from 2024 to have an Average EV at or below 90 MPH, being more of an anomaly than the norm for modern high-average hitters.
Compared to last season Rice is whiffing more, but his contact rates in-zone are still high and his Swinging Strike% has actually decreased from 2024. His strikeout rate is also lower than it was during his rookie season, which seems to be tied to a more patient approach that’s built around taking a max-effort swing at pitches he knows he can handle. He’s still making contact in-zone at an above-average clip, and relative to his damage output, his contact rates are some of the best in the game.
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Among the 380 hitters who have recorded 200 or more PAs since 2024, only Ben Rice and Juan Soto find themselves in the top 10 for Barrel% while sporting a better-than-average Swinging Strike%. That’s some rarefied air; hitters who hammer the baseball aren’t supposed to make a lot of contact and yet Rice does, which could allow him to become more than just a pretty good hitter. With a .380 xwOBA through 65 MLB games, the underlying data would tell you that he’s going to become an incredible force at the plate.
The 211 wRC+ he has will likely not hold for the entire season, but no one is expecting him to have a season rivaling the likes of Aaron Judge. What analysts are looking to figure out is how far will Rice fall before his data stabilizes, and each day there’s a growing confidence in various projection systems that he’ll end up being one incredible hitter. Comparing pre-season to current projections is important because the additional data from 2025 can help fuel these models with more accurate and up-to-date information, resulting in better accuracy.
ZiPS had a .750 OPS projection for Ben Rice entering 2025, that number has now increased to a .790 OPS for the remainder of the season. Steamer once projected a .744 OPS and has since upped that number to .757, and The BAT X has gone from a projected .733 OPS to a whopping .805 OPS for the remainder of the 2025 season. Across the board, models believe Ben Rice has made some serious improvements from the offseason and should become a force in the Yankees’ offense.
All of this stems from the Yankees’ scouting department keeping tabs on a little-known Dartmouth hitter who had not participated in an official college game in two years at the time he was drafted. While NCAA schools participated in the 2021 campaign, Ivy League colleges decided to cancel that season as well, with Rice having to play in a variety of leagues to get reps and in-game action. 12th Round Picks don’t usually make it to the big leagues, and prospects who are still in Single-A when they’re 24 never make it.
Ben Rice is an anomaly in his own right, but he’s also a walking example of why you don’t rule out a player solely based on their age. A 26-year-old who had a sub-.200 average entering 2025? That’s not the kind of player who would get more run with a playoff contender, and yet the Yankees are reaping the reward of going against conventional wisdom and trusting the talent Rice had all along.