The Yankees have opened the 2025 season with a pitching staff that’s been more of a problem than a strength — a sharp contrast to the expectations coming into the year. Injuries and inconsistency have derailed the rotation, and most arms haven’t even managed to crack league-average production.
But on Saturday afternoon against a dangerous San Francisco Giants lineup, 25-year-old Will Warren gave the Yankees something they haven’t had much of lately: a reason to feel optimistic.
Warren Delivers His Best Start of the Season
Warren came into the game with a 5.14 ERA over 14 innings and some serious command issues, walking batters at a rate of 4.50 per nine. But he made noticeable strides in what turned out to be his best performance of the season so far.
He tossed five strong innings, allowing just two hits, two earned runs, and two walks while striking out six. The only real blemish came on a poorly located sinker that Wilmer Flores turned into a no-doubt home run to right-center.
Aside from that one mistake, Warren was composed, confident, and in control — a stark contrast to Friday’s disaster when Marcus Stroman gave up five runs in the first inning. Warren didn’t just survive; he gave the Yankees a legitimate shot to win.
The Metrics Point to Promise — and Some Red Flags
Statistically, Warren is a bit of a mixed bag. His ERA still hovers above 5.00, but there’s enough beneath the surface to suggest he’s trending in the right direction.
He’s striking out 9.64 batters per nine and sits in the 97th percentile in breaking run value and 91st percentile in whiff rate. That’s elite swing-and-miss stuff. But when hitters do make contact, it tends to be loud — his ground ball rate is just 42.9%, and his left-on-base percentage is hovering at a concerning 60.6%.
The inconsistency stems from two areas: command and pitch selection.
Sinker Becoming a Liability, Fastball and Sweeper Standing Out
Warren’s sinker might need to take a backseat — it’s getting hit, and hit hard. Opponents are batting .300 against it with a .800 slugging percentage, and it’s already been the cause of multiple home runs, including Saturday’s big blow.
By contrast, his four-seam fastball — though it averages only 92.5 mph — has been sneaky effective. It’s producing a .143 batting average against with a .214 slugging rate and currently stands as his most-used pitch at 29.3% usage.
Then there’s his sweeper — the bread and butter. That pitch continues to generate whiffs and keep hitters off balance. When he’s landing it for strikes, everything else in his arsenal plays up.
Building Confidence is the Key
Warren clearly has the raw stuff to be a solid starter. The next step is repetition and confidence — trusting his arsenal, refining his command, and leaning into what works. Saturday showed that he’s capable of putting it together, even against a red-hot offense.
For a Yankees team still waiting for Clarke Schmidt to return and dealing with the weekly uncertainty of Stroman (who’s now on the 15-day IL) and Carrasco, Warren’s progression could be crucial. The tools are there — now it’s about turning flashes into something sustainable.