Last season was full of ups and downs for Spencer Jones, who struggled to start the season before catching fire in the second half and having a strong postseason. Still, the Yankees‘ 2022 first-round pick fell off of Baseball America’s and Baseball Prospectus’ top-100 lists as he struck out 200 times in 122 games with the Somerset Patriots. He would spend this past offseason working on ways to get his monstrous exit velocities to result in more home runs, as he has yet to cross the 20 HR threshold in a Minor League season.
Those adjustments seem to be working, as Jones clobbered his fourth and fifth home runs of the season last night in Altoona during Somerset’s 6-4 loss. With some more loft in his swing early on in the season, Spencer Jones is off to a red-hot start and could find himself in Triple-A sooner rather than later.
Spencer Jones’ Power Surge Coming At a Perfect Time For the Yankees
It would not be harsh to call 2025 a career-defining year for Spencer Jones, who is Rule 5 eligible this winter and has to be either placed on the 40-man roster or left unprotected for the other 29 teams in baseball to pick up. The Yankees don’t have to promote him to the Major Leagues this season, but after spending all of 2024 in Double-A, it would be a massive disappointment if Jones were unable to reach Triple-A this year.
He’s off to a much better start than last year, as he needed 44 games to hit his fifth home run of the season, but has already reached that mark in just 12 games this year. If Spencer Jones can consistently tap into his game power to produce at the plate, his strikeouts become less of an issue, and the odds of becoming a productive big leaguer grow exponentially.
Jones is slashing .273/.385/.636 with a 181 wRC+ through his first 12 games of the season, and he’s continuing to mash after a brilliant September in 2024. He launched five home runs across 18 regular and postseason games, and when you combine that production with his 2025 numbers, you end up with 10 home runs and a .981 OPS. His 32% strikeout rate over that stretch isn’t great, but with a lower strikeout rate and more power, Spencer Jones is heading in the right direction.
The early results are showing an improvement in batted ball data, as Spencer Jones is lifting the ball more often and giving himself more chances to take the ball out of the yard.
There’s a lot more loft in Spencer Jones’ swing this year, and fewer groundballs will mean more chances for him to leave the yard. His incredible raw power allows him to hit the ball out regardless of whether it’s an opposite field flyball, straightaway center, or rocketed to right field on a line. The Yankees don’t have to worry about spray angle as much with Spencer Jones as they would with other prospects; they just need to make sure he’s getting the ball off the ground enough.
His current profile is one that might actually work in the Major Leagues; if he struck out in ~35% of his MLB plate appearances while hitting the ball in the air frequently, he could end up with 25+ home runs. The Aaron Judge comparisons are crazy, but a more reasonable outcome could be Adam Duvall, who was known for high SLG% numbers with crazy high strikeout rates and a ~.300 OBP. Both are excellent defensive outfielders, but the one advantage Spencer Jones has is that he’s a brilliant defender in centerfield instead of just the corner outfield.
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Duvall sounds like a disappointing MLB outcome, but he was roughly a league-average hitter from 2015-2023 with a .475 SLG%, which is more than tolerable from a good defensive centerfielder who can steal bases. Prospect development is not always about developing superstars, it’s about finding low-cost production that can open payroll for more expensive additions at the top of the free agent market to bolster the roster. Paying ~$10 million per WAR for an elite superstar is fine, but doing so for a 1-2 WAR player can just bog down your payroll and limit your roster’s ceiling.
The Yankees haven’t given up on Spencer Jones because he’s far less experienced than people think. The reigning AL Rookie of the Year winner was 26 years old when he accepted that award, and the reigning AL MVP didn’t break into the Major Leagues for good until his age-25 season. Clarke Schmidt didn’t establish himself as an MLB starter until he was 27, and Ben Rice is just now becoming an everyday option for the Yankees at 26 years old. Jones had one season as a full-time position player at Vanderbilt and barely played summer ball; he was incredibly raw coming out of the draft.
Spencer Jones shouldn’t be relied on to become a superstar bat for the organization, but there’s still reason to believe he could be a productive big leaguer. He isn’t out of time just yet, and if he keeps dropping tanks, there’s a chance we see the towering outfielder in Scranton before the summer rolls around.