Somewhat disappointing Knicks team takes on somewhat better-than-expected Nets team
Many of these previews, especially the ones I’ve written, are starting to sound like a broken record. The Knicks have had an inconsistent season, showing us glimmers of hope and potential while also being marred by clear weaknesses and disappointments. There are games where they look like they’re on the verge of putting it all together and turning into the kind of contender we thought they could be. And then there are nights where they remind us that this is still a work in progress.
The latter was very much true in Wednesday night’s loss to the Bulls, which came just a night after the former was true in their win against the 76ers. In an attempt to get back to winning ways and back to .500, they’ll play game two of the In-Season Tournament and the second game of their four-game homestand against their cross-town rival Nets.
The results of the last few meetings between these teams have been pretty one-sided. Dating back to February 13th of last year, the Knicks have won six consecutive games against the Nets by an average of 13.6 points per game. But tonight’s matchup figures to be closer than that. Not only have the Knicks had a disappointment start, the Nets has looked much better than people expected. Before the season began, many fans and analysts wrote the Brooklyn in as one of the worst teams in the league. Instead, they’ve got off to a respectable 4-4 start, and despite stumbling a bit, are still just half a game behind the Knicks at 5-7.
So how has a Nets team with no real stars looked so much better than expected? A lot of it has been their offense. The Nets, like the Knicks, play a very slow pace, and that has kept their point per game average relatively low. But they are still pretty efficient in the possessions they do have. They are eighth in the league in three-pointers made per game, 12th in offensive rating, 12th in true shooting percentage, and 13th in assists per game.
Their defense though, hasn’t been as good. They are 24th in the league in defensive rating, 19th in points given up per game, 28th in free throws given up per game, and 23rd in assists given up per game, and 28th opponent field goal percentage. Some of those numbers have been disproportionately impacted by their to the Nuggets and the Nets in which they gave up 144 points and 139 points respectively, so they likely aren’t as bad as some of those numbers suggest. But the point remains that their defense has been what has held them back, and that some of the lower scoring games their opponents have had have been a result of their slower pace.
Projected Starters
Dennis Schroder is having the best season of his career at age 31, thanks to an incredibly hot start from downtown. He is averaging a career second-best 19.3 PPG while shooting 49.1% from the field and 46.2% from three. That points-per-game average is heavily weighed down by the Pistons game, in which he scored just seven points, and the Bulls game, in which he scored just nine points. Without those games, Schroder is averaging 21.5 PPG.
He is joined by occasional Knicks killer Cam Thomas, who is averaging a career-high 23.8 PPG. With Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, James Harden, and Mikal Bridges all finally out of the picture, and Steve Nash, Jacque Vaughn, and Kevin Ollie no longer holding him back, Thomas has nobody stopping him from getting up shots, and it’s been a scary sight for the league as he has already surpassed the 30-point mark four times this season. That being said, as electric a scorer as Thomas is, he remains just that. The 23-year-old still doesn’t offer much else, as he isn’t much of a playmaker, and his defensive rating of 118.5 remains poor.
Cameron Johnson, like the aforementioned two, is having one of the best seasons of his career. The former Sun is averaging 16.5 PPG, the second highest of his career, while shooting 47.3% from the field (also the second highest of his career) and 37.6% from three.
Dorian Finney-Smith is currently listed as probable and will likely get his 11th start of the season if he is good to go. The veteran forward is having a solid season, averaging 10 PPG and 5 RPG, which are the second-highest and third-highest averages of his career, respectively. He’s once again been a solid defender who shoots just well enough from three. This year, he’s already had scoring games of 17 points twice and a 15-point game once, so the occasional scoring outburst from him is still possible.
Nic Claxton is listed as questionable with lower back tightness, but he’ll get the starting nod if he ends up playing. If not, there are questions about who would start; it could be Ben Simmons, or they could go even smaller and start the 6’9” Ziaire Williams at center. If Claxton does end up starting, New York will face a different version of Claxton than in the past. Despite averaging at least 11.8 PPG, 9.2 RPG, and 2.1 BPG in nearly 30 MPG over the last two seasons, Claxton has taken a step back, averaging just 8.6 PPG, 7.7 RPG, and 1.2 BPG. He’s also regressed significantly from the free-throw line, dropping from an already low 55.1% to an even worse 46.4%.
Injury Report
Brooklyn: Trendon Watford (hamstring) out, Bojan Bogdanovic (foot) out, Dorian Finney-Smith (ankle) probable, Nic Claxton (lower back) questionable, Day-Ron Sharpe (hamstring) out
New York: Jalen Brunson (ankle) probable, Karl-Anthony Towns (knee) probable, Deuce McBride (knee) questionable, Cameron Payne (hamstring) probable; Mitchell Robinson (foot) out, Precious Achiuwa (hamstring) out, Kevin McCullar Jr. (knee) out
Prediction
As you can see above, the Knicks’ injury report is the longest it’s been all season. Amid frustrating losses and inconsistent play, the Knicks’ list of injuries continues to grow little by little. Since Brunson and Towns finished the game and McBride and Payne played with those same injuries, I’d be surprised if a struggling Knicks team didn’t play as many guys as possible to try to get a win against a beatable opponent.
Now, as mentioned earlier, Brooklyn has been much better than initially anticipated. While they’ve only played 12 games and could still sputter out and end up at the bottom of the standings, they have undoubtedly been one of the most surprising teams in the league this season. Their backcourt is dynamic and remains one of the highest-scoring backcourt duos in the league, consistently demonstrating their capability to take over a game. The forward tandem of Johnson and Finney-Smith has also enjoyed strong starts to the season.
Defensively, they’ve been even worse than the Knicks, which means this game will likely be a high-scoring affair. If that’s the case, the Knicks should still have the advantage. New York, despite all the frustrating play, remains in the top five in offensive rating. With Towns looking like the best center in the league not named Nikola Jokic, and Brunson slowly starting to look more like himself, they should win this one. The Knicks continue their frustrating trend of winning one, then losing one, make it seven wins in a row over Brooklyn, take the all-time head-to-head lead at 108-107, and get back to .500. Expect another masterpiece performance from Towns and a big bounce-back game from both OG Anunoby and McBride. Knicks win, 115-108.
Game Details
Date: Friday, November 15, 2024
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Venue: Madison Square Garden, New York City
TV: MSG Network
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