Tough test against a familiar rival.
While the Knicks and Heat have long been considered Eastern Conference Rivals, the rivalry had taken somewhat of a backseat due to the ineptitude and consistent failures of the Knicks. But since the two teams met up in the second round of the playoffs in 2023, the hate, at least from New York’s side has been reignited. Those feelings were then made even stronger last season when Julius Randle suffered what would become a season-ending shoulder injury after the Heat’s Jaime Jaquez Jr. slid under Randle in an attempt to draw an offensive foul. After that play though, the two teams went in pretty different directions.
The Heat would go on to bow out of the playoffs in unceremonious fashion after suffering a 4-1 defeat in the first round to the eventual champion Boston Celtics. And much of the talk surrounding the Heat and their offseason was around how incomplete, and flawed their roster was, as well as how the future of star shooting guard Jimmy Butler seemed to be in flux. Meanwhile, the Knicks went on to defeat the Sixers in the first-round and was a game away from making the conference finals despite suffering multiple key injuries. And unlike the Heat, many were excited for the Knicks and what they could accomplish this season thanks to their 2024 performance and the addition of Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns.
Three games into the season though, it’s Miami that comes into tonight’s game with a better record. The Heat have taken advantage of a soft early-season schedule and have jumped out to a 2-1 record after defeating both the Hornets and the Pistons after their season-opening loss to the Orlando Magic. And they’ve done so with a top 10 defense, which is led once again by Bam Adebayo, and a very balanced offensive attack that doesn’t have a single player average more than 20PPG, but also has three players averaging more than 17PPG. Equally as impressive, is the fact that they lead the league with an assist percentage of 73.6%, which is over 25% higher than the Knicks, who rank 29th in the league at just 48%.
Projected Starters
The Heat have rolled out the same starting lineup of Terri Rozier, Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler, Nikola Jovic, and Bam Adebayo for all three of their games so far there’s no reason the believe anything will change tonight. Adebayo will anchor the defense, which currently ranks ninth in the league in defensive rating, while the trio of Rozier (19.3PPG), Herro (18.3PPG), and Butler (17.3PPG), provide Miami with a very balanced attack.
New York, unlike Miami, may see a starting lineup change though as Josh Hart is currently listed as a game-time decision. If he is unable to go, expect Deuce McBride to join to the quartet of Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, and Karl-Anthony Towns.
Prediction
Miami has more momentum coming off of two wins against subpar teams, and they also possess much more continuity than the Knicks currently have. That, along with home-court advantage and the fact that Hart may be out tonight makes them the favorite heading into tonight’s matchup. In fact, ESPN currently has the Heat as 60.7% favorites. That being said, the last few games have been relatively close. Since 2022, seven of the last ten games between the two teams have been decided by 10 or fewer points.
I think Miami takes advantage of Hart either being out or hobbled, and pull out a close win against a Knicks team that is still very obviously in the midst of figuring out how to play with each other. The Heat’s lack of offensive explosiveness, and Brunson, who is coming off an uncharacteristically bad game, will keep the game close, but the Heat ultimately win this 108-104.
Game Details
Who: New York Knicks at Miami Heat
When: Wednesday, October 30 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Where: Kaseya Center, Miami, FL
Watch: MSG Network, Fubo, NBA League Pass
Follow: @ptknicksblog