Two teams with championship aspirations look for a much-needed win after a disappointing start.
The first few weeks of the NBA season have been unpredictable and surprising for Eastern Conference teams. The Cavaliers, not the Celtics, stand in first place with an immaculate 9-0 record. The Pacers and Nets are currently third and fourth with a record of 4-4, the Sixers are last in the conference at 1-6, and the two teams playing tonight, the Knicks and the Bucks, are experiencing disappointing starts to their seasons, going 3-4 and 2-6, respectively.
New York has struggled to maintain any consistency on the offensive end, with Jalen Brunson looking as ineffective as he has since becoming a Knick. Mikal Bridges, for whom the Knicks gave up a treasure chest of first-round picks, has been inconsistent on both ends of the floor. Josh Hart has had some head-scratching moments and is shooting under 30% from three. Deuce McBride went 0-9 in a loss two games ago. Outside of McBride, the bench has been close to nonexistent. Tom Thibodeau has faced heavy criticism for his rotations, minutes distribution, and offensive schemes.
Milwaukee, on the other hand, is getting superb production from its stars. Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 31 PPG, 12.9 RPG, and 5.7 APG, while Damian Lillard is averaging 28.4 PPG and 6.8 APG. However, neither has yet learned to maximize the other’s strengths, and Antetokounmpo seems reluctant to engage heavily in screening for Lillard. The rest of the team has only one player averaging more than 10 PPG, the defense has been subpar, and there have been endless jokes about the ineptitude of both head coach Doc Rivers and assistant coach Darvin Ham. Needless to say, both teams are in a place they would rather not be and would benefit greatly from a win tonight.
Projected Starters
The point guard battle between Damian Lillard and Brunson should be a fun one to watch. After a down year by his standards last season, Lillard has started strong. If the Knicks want to slow him down, they’ll need to focus on limiting his three-point shooting; so far, he’s taking 10 three-pointers per game and shooting 38.8% from beyond the arc. Both figures are up from the 8.5 attempts per game and 35.4% three-point percentage he posted last season.
Gary Trent Jr. will start alongside Lillard. Known as a streaky shooter in the past, he’s currently struggling, shooting an abysmal 29.5% from the field and 23.1% from three. New York cannot allow him to find his rhythm, as it would make their already mediocre offense much harder to contain.
Starting at small forward is offseason acquisition Taurean Prince. The veteran forward is averaging just 7.9 PPG but has been highly efficient with his limited shots, shooting 55.8% from the field and 55.6% from three. However, that latter number is obviously unsustainable, so the Knicks may benefit from some negative regression tonight.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, the latest star to endure the media’s “potential trade request” treatment, is having another unbelievable season. The former MVP has been so good for so long that he’s almost become underrated and underappreciated. Fans and analysts often gloss over his stats, which has led to his play being taken for granted. With how well he’s performing—and with Karl-Anthony Towns excelling for the Knicks—this could be a thrilling back-and-forth matchup.
Last but not least is Brook Lopez, brother of former Knick Robin Lopez and former cross-town rival. The 36-year-old center has taken a few steps back defensively over the past couple of years, but his offense has been the real disappointment this season. Through the first eight games, Lopez is averaging just 9.6 PPG on 38.4% shooting from the field, and only 26.8% from three on 5.1 attempts per game. Given the Knicks’ past struggles against stretch centers, it’s imperative they don’t let Lopez regain his former form.
Injury Report
Milwaukee: Khris Middleton (ankle) out, Giannis Antetokounmpo (thigh) probable, Gary Trent Jr. (back) questionable
New York: Cameron Payne (hamstring) questionable; Mitchell Robinson (foot) out, Precious Achiuwa (hamstring) out, Kevin McCullar Jr. (knee) out
Prediction
The eye test and the results haven’t always been great so far, but the Knicks still rank fourth in the league in offensive rating, which has carried what has been a subpar defense. That’s led to them maintaining a top 10 net rating for the season. Some of this is buoyed by big wins against the Pacers and Pistons, but it still shows that they’ve had some bright moments and have done some things well. Statistically and record-wise, New York should have the advantage tonight. They have a significantly better offense and are more balanced on that end of the floor. Defensively, they are going up against a Bucks team that has struggled just as much as the Knicks. However, similar things could have been—and were—said in their last two games, both of which New York ended up losing in disappointing fashion.
Milwaukee has had a rough start to the season, but they are coming off a win last night, and the combination of Antetokounmpo and Lillard is still among the league’s best, capable of beating anyone on any given night.
With that said, the game will come down to one player and one player only: Jalen Brunson. From what we’ve seen this season, it’s likely that the Bucks’ two stars will have strong games, while their supporting cast and defense struggle. On the Knicks’ side, OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges are expected to combine for about 30 points, with the former playing elite defense and the latter showing inconsistent but mostly good defensive play. Hart will have a few blunders but will contribute on the boards. And Towns, who has been the Knicks’ best player so far, will be a force on the boards while providing efficient scoring.
But Brunson has struggled mightily. In the Knicks’ wins, he’s composed, making good decisions for himself and his teammates. In the losses, he looks off balance, forces too many plays, plays selfishly, and struggles to find his shot. If New York wants to secure a much-needed victory to get back to .500, it will depend on him. And whether it’s just me trying to speak it into existence or not, I believe he’ll come through. Knicks win a close shootout, 120-115.
Game Details
Who: New York Knicks vs Milwaukee Bucks
When: Friday, November 8 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Where: Madison Square Garden, New York
Watch: MSG Network
Follow: @ptknicksblog