Knicks Mythbusters: Are the starters playing too many minutes?

The answer is complicated and requires nuance. It also doesn’t apply to everyone.

Wee, woo.

Wee woo.

Y’all hear that sound? It’s the minutes police!

If you asked a dozen NBA fans about the number-one narrative that exists about the Knicks, you’d have a near-consensus answer:

Are you noticing a trend?

Ever since Tom Thibodeau took the job as head coach of the New York Knicks in 2020, the cries about the minutes have been everywhere. With the Knicks as shallow as ever and having the most expectations in this window, the pressure cooker has been turned up a notch.

Let’s go through the facts, first.

Mikal Bridges leads the NBA in minutes played, entering tonight’s game against Atlanta as the only player in the NBA with 2,000 minutes this season.

Josh Hart is second at 1,956.

Jalen Brunson is in fifth with 1,822.

OG Anunoby, despite missing the last four games, is still tenth with 1,777.

Even Karl-Anthony Towns is top 35 with 1,663.

In a league of 30 teams, having three of the top five, four of the top ten, and five of the top 35 is outrageous.

But, is it really? That’s the question we have to answer.

First of all, total minutes is not a good way to look at it. It inflates healthy players and basically has you shame teams for their players being healthy. Let’s switch to a better metric: minutes per game.

It still isn’t great for ol’ Tibby.

Mikal Bridges leads the NBA with 38.1 minutes a game, Josh Hart is third at 37.6, and OG Anunoby is tenth at 36.3.

However, Jalen Brunson, who is fifth in total minutes, is all the way down at 24th (35.0).

Karl-Anthony Towns is 28th at 34.6.

You still may cry about Brunson and KAT being top-30, but what contending teams should play their all-NBA talent less than 35 minutes a game?

You may not notice much of a difference, but there is one if you look closer.

Notice how in total minutes, there’s a significant gap:

The gap between first and 13th is almost 300 minutes, a significant amount of mileage.

However, this changes when you look at it this way:

The difference between first and 13th is only two minutes a night. Over 50-55 games, that’s 100 minutes. Over a full season, it’s only 164 minutes.

Think about that difference. We’re on pace for the total minute gap to be over 500 minutes by the end of the season, which is 10+ extra games. 164 minutes is only 3.5 extra games.

The culprit of the total minutes disparity is, quite simply, health. Look back at the total minutes leaderboard. Only Devin Booker has played less than 49 games. To rack up total minutes, you have to be healthy.

So, for no reason at all, I tallied up the total games missed of every team’s most used starting lineup (or, for teams like the Pelicans, total games missed of the planned starting lineup). The results are as follows:

The expected culprits are at the top, with the Pelicans, Sixers, Magic, and Hornets all over 90 games missed. Notable teams like the Mavericks, Thunder, and Celtics are all over 50.

Just ten teams are under 30, with teams like the Spurs, Kings, Timberwolves, and Lakers at the bottom of the list. Just one team is under 20 games missed by their starters.

The New York Knicks.

Counting OG’s fourth missed game yesterday, only eleven games have been missed between the five starters. Now, my way of doing it isn’t precise, as some of these totals are skewed by one player (Miami with Jimmy Butler, Thunder with Chet Holmgren) but it shows that the Knicks’ starters are extraordinarily healthy.

That, ultimately, is the cause for the total minutes disparity. Aside from Mitchell Robinson’s ankle injury, the Knicks have been as healthy as anyone in the NBA.

Part of it is by design, as Mikal Bridges could get hit by a truck and suit up the next night, Josh Hart plays through everything, and Jalen Brunson has been relatively durable as a Knick. However, the fact that only nine games have been missed by the oft-injured Anunoby and Towns have been a blessing for the Knicks.

However, despite the very few amount of games missed, it doesn’t mean the players have been fully healthy.

While Bridges has only been on the injury report once after a turned ankle and Anunoby was surprisingly healthy until his current toe issue, the other three have had nagging issues.

Jalen Brunson had a lingering calf injury last month, Towns has had a variety of ailments from his knee (which had him questionable against Boston, notably) to his thumb that was impacting his jump-shooting. Josh Hart, who has only missed one game due to undisclosed personal reasons, has been on the injury report with a knee issue for a couple weeks. Stefan Bondy of the New York Post set Knicks fans aflame when he suggested Hart may need an offseason surgery:

After this, it started an explosion on Knicks Twitter of anti-Tom Thibodeau sentiment, led by a certain few (if you’re dialed into Knicks Twitter, you know who I mean).

Hart responded to this report that suggested he was being grinded into dust by scoring a season-high 30 points in Indiana and even clapping back on Twitter himself:

Hart looks as healthy as ever, and he said it himself that if he’s healthy enough to go, he’s gonna give it 100%.

Now, there are valid worries about the overall total minutes. One solution to cut down on the wide gap is being more proactive in garbage time in getting the starters out.

Last night in Indiana, Rick Carlisle emptied his bench with 3:22 to go. While Bridges and Towns took a seat quickly, Josh hart and Jalen Brunson stayed in for an extra 108 seconds. Those add up.

In the November victory against Detroit, the starters weren’t removed until five minutes left with a 30-point lead.

Against Washington later that month, Bridges didn’t exit until under three to play, despite a 33-point lead.

There have been times Thibs has been proactive, but some of these add up. Granted, I will never advocate for him to take the starters out with a big lead before the losing team does. It’s their job to throw in the towel, not us.

Take the blowout against Sacramento in January. The Knicks were up 20+ with under four to play, but the Kings kept Sabonis, Fox, DeRozan, and Monk in. Despite being down a ton, they didn’t empty the bench until 3:13 remaining, which is where Thibs did too (although he left Towns in for an extra minute, oddly).

If the other team isn’t giving up, there’s no reason to put yourself at a vast disadvantage on the court with your bench.

So, in conclusion, are the starters playing too many minutes?

Probably!

But with the shallow depth on the roster, an uptick is expected to stay as good as they are. The raw minute totals also do not contextualize how healthy the Knicks have been compared to other teams and how the minutes don’t seem to be affecting them or their play (those who seriously blame minutes for KAT’s struggles since his thumb injury are being obtuse).

The verdict is that the Knicks should look for opportunities to close the 150-ish total minute gap. Earlier rest in blowouts (especially losses), not having guys go when dealing with a nagging injury vs a rebuilding team, and letting the bench cook when they’re hot. Landry Shamet and Cam Payne got serious fourth quarter burn due to foul trouble and good play, so riding the hot hand more could be beneficial down the line.