It’s only been four games and nine days, but we can learn from early trends to know what to expect down the road.
Hand up, I haven’t been very locked in on the Knicks so far. Except for the Beantown beatdown, there’s always been a playoff baseball game on at the same time. My Yanks got taken to town by the Dodgers (and themselves) last night so we’re all in on the ‘Bockers, baby!
That doesn’t mean I haven’t watched them. The last three games against Indiana, Cleveland, and Miami were second-screen, but the differences in the structure of basketball and baseball allowed me to observe some trends. I did some film breakdowns on the defense over the first two games, and the Knicks have mostly righted the ship after getting smoked from deep in Boston.
That said, there are a number of trends and stats that, through the first nine days of the NBA season, I’ve noticed. Some of these will continue, others won’t. They’re still worth examining.
Tight Rotation
Tom Thibodeau will never voluntarily run a ten-man rotation as long as he’s living and breathing. That said, nine should be the minimum in the regular season. With the KAT trade and Shamet’s injury, it just looks like eight is all it’s going to be for now. Thibs briefly used Pacome Dadiet as the ninth man in the opener against Boston but has slipped him back to the bench. He also used Ariel Hukporti as a technical ninth man vs Cleveland, although that was due to matchups (Sims appeared to have been benched that day) and KAT getting into foul trouble.
It’s a thin eight-man rotation too. Deuce McBride plays super-sub minutes, but Cameron Payne and Jericho Sims aren’t playing big minutes. Payne has played just 21 minutes combined in the past two games and Sims looks like he’s on thin ice with how Hukporti has turned heads.
Good offense, bad defense?
Through four games, the Knicks are third in offensive rating and a dismal 27th in defensive rating. That’s not good!
Ok, this is where a small sample size rears its ugly head. 25% of the Knicks’ season as of right now was the unsustainable offensive brilliance of the Celtics last Tuesday. If we just take the last three games, all competitive and all against solid opponents, the defensive rating is just 108.2 with a +11 net rating.
Perimeter Disparity
The opener is obviously going to skew some things, but it is important to note that this was a trend, not an outlier.
The Knicks are attempting 31.3 threes a game. Ten years ago, that would be by far the second-highest mark in the league. So far this year? It is the fifth-lowest. The Knicks have stacked their roster with guys who can shoot. The second-worst shooter in the active rotation is Josh Hart. This is a bit baffling.
The more startling thing is how many threes they’re giving up. Knicks’ opponents are shooting 41.8 threes a game, the fifth highest in the league. Now, that is partially skewed by the most prolific three-point volume team of all time hoisting up 61 on Opening Night. How have the last three gone?
vs Indiana: NYK 27 3PA, IND 30 3PA
vs Cleveland: NYK 28, CLE 36
at Miami: NYK 40, MIA 40
The game in Miami was the first game the Knicks had attempted more than 30 threes. Although the margin isn’t nearly as severe as it looks, they’re shooting way less than the league average.
Efficiency
The Knicks may not take the most threes, but they make them when they do. Despite the highly publicized shooting form of Mikal Bridges, he’s still making them at a 36% clip. The team as a whole is shooting an elite 40.0%, behind just Cleveland and Boston. They’ve also rounded into form on perimeter defense. Since the Celtics started 29-for-48 on Opening Night from deep, they’ve held their opponents to just 26.9% from deep, including 3-for-30 from Indiana and a season-worst 33.3% by Cleveland in their electric start to the season.
Individually, they are heavily buoyed by Karl-Anthony Towns and Deuce McBride. Combined, the pair average 7.3 attempts per game and are shooting a ludicrous 62.1% from 3. Meanwhile, Bridges and Brunson are holding serve. The struggle bus is reserved for OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, and Cam Payne, who are a combined 14-for-49 from deep.
Also notable, the Knicks are second in FG% at 50.0 and fifth in 2PT% at 56.0.
Shot Diet
The Knicks shoot more mid-range than most teams. Their 12 attempts per game and 14.4% are up there on the leaderboard. What shocked me is that they were actually one of the teams who shot the least amount of mid-range shots last year.
I assumed replacing Randle with KAT would lead to fewer shots there, but the culprits of the increase make sense. Mikal Bridges is taking DiVincenzo’s shot share and Brunson is Brunson. The big difference is that KAT shot 1.4 mid-range shots per game last year and is up to 2.5. It is an extremely small sample, but something to watch.
Pace
Tom Thibodeau is setting a new bar for slow offense. The last time the Knicks had a pace this low (93.7 possessions per 48 min) was 2015-16. The league average pace back then was 94-95. The last time the Knicks sat this low below league average pace (6.2 below average) was… never. Only their 1982-83 team comes close. Never, ever doubt a Thibs team and their ability to play early-2000s pace basketball.
Rebounding
This one isn’t great. The Knicks were so good offensively last season because they gobbled up boards at an unbelievable rate. Despite a long absence by Mitchell Robinson, the Knicks snagged 12.7 offensive rebounds per game, the best in the NBA, behind Isaiah Hartenstein and Precious Achiuwa manning the middle.
Since then, the team lost Isaiah Hartenstein to free agency, and both Robinson and Achiuwa are hurt. What happens because of that? The Knicks are 26th in OREB/G at just 9.0. Residential maniac Josh Hart has 2.3 of those.
Pecking Order
Jalen Brunson is the first option. Last night was an exception, where we just gave the ball to KAT and got out of the way. That said, the Knicks are treating KAT and Bridges as co-second options.
at Boston: Bridges 13 FGA, KAT 9 FGA
vs Indiana: Bridges 12, KAT 11
vs Cleveland: Bridges 15, KAT 8
at Miami: Bridges 16, KAT 25
Did the Knicks realize we should maybe feed the multi-time all-star like we did with Julius Randle? The pecking order is also clear Josh Hart and OG Anunoby get last licks in the offense. Both are struggling with their shots from the perimeter and, frankly, I just need more offense from Anunoby based on his paycheck.
Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images
What Trends Will Stick
I think what’s real is the pace, efficiency, and tight rotation. Thibs will never run an up-tempo offense and with Brunson running the show, he has no incentive to.
The Knicks probably won’t shoot unreal percentages from 3 but this has the makings of a very efficient offense. KAT and Deuce will regress but OG and Payne should absolutely shoot much higher than sub-30%.
Thibs will also not expand his rotation. The most likely course of action is that it stays at eight until it expands to nine when the Knicks are forced to make two signings on November 5th. Matt Ryan would fill a gap in the wing department.
What Trends Will Not Stick
The shot volume, pecking order, and rebounding are all due to change.
The Knicks will eventually start hoisting more threes. They have the shooters to do so, but they’re still not totally cohesive offensively.
They will firmly establish KAT as a close second option to Brunson, who can have performances like last night more often. I also believe OG will get more looks once his shot starts falling. Can’t be icing him out.
Finally, the rebounding. This won’t change in the short term, but I fully expect the Knicks to improve on the boards significantly upon the return of Mitchell Robinson and Precious Achiuwa in the coming weeks and months.