Player Preview: A pivotal season is coming for Mitchell Robinson

The longest-tenured Knick’s days may be numbered, but he remains pivotal for the Knicks’ title hopes.

Before we talk about present-day Mitchell Robinson, I want to talk about what he’s been up to this point.

When the Knicks took Robinson 36th overall in 2018, there was no way to know what impact he would have. After all, he hadn’t played organized basketball in over a year after his complicated withdrawal from Western Kentucky. The former five-star recruit could not play in the D-League because he took summer classes ahead of the freshman year which never happened. Furthermore, he withdrew from all NBA Combine activities. This guy was a complete unknown, but Steve Mills and Scott Perry decided to add him as a complimentary piece to a draft class centered around Kentucky wing Kevin Knox.

Six years later, we’d be better off telling young fans that Mitch was picked eighth and Knox was 36th.

If you go by win shares (explanation of their calculation here), Robinson is the seventh most valuable player in his class and the latest to be picked to accrue at least 20 win shares (he has 33.9). The only guys in front of him are Luka, Trae, Brunson, Bridges, Ayton, and SGA. Not bad.

That doesn’t mean it’s been all smooth sailing. Early Mitch was extremely raw. He was a blocking machine that simultaneously couldn’t stop fouling people. He averaged 5.7 fouls per 36 minutes as a rookie but also had a per 36 of 4.3 blocks a game. Young Mitch would violently flail his body at whoever he was defending. Today, he’s more reserved and a much smarter defender, which has allowed him to play more minutes.

His foul woes, alongside Fizdale being Fizdale, had Mitch glued to the bench in favor of Taj Gibson even though Robinson was the most promising young guy on the team. His best season to date came in 2019-20 when he averaged 9.7 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks. He also ensured that if you look in the NBA record book, you will see a late-2010s Knick. Mitch set a league record by shooting 74.2% from the field, albeit on an extremely shallow shot chart.

He was already a bit fragile, but a broken hand and a broken foot in the same year derailed in 2020-21 season. He missed 40 games and the entire postseason. Robinson’s 2021-22 season was actually very strong, averaging 8.6 points and 8.5 rebounds with 1.8 blocks. He shot 76.1% but didn’t qualify to break his own record.

You started to see a new version of Mitch. The wiry, undisciplined, and raw big man began to become really good at a few traits. He became a disciplined but ferocious rim protector, the best offensive rebounder in basketball, and started getting in passing lanes more frequently. He’s always been an extremely smart defender.

However, Robinson’s top trait is unfortunately his inability to stay healthy. When Robinson played last season, it was the best basketball of his career. In 21 starts, he was only averaging 6.2 points on 59.2% shooting, but he was averaging 10.3 rebounds and 2.8 stocks. Oh yeah, also 5.3 offensive rebounds a game. There’s no coincidence that the Knicks’ defensive rating tanked when Robinson went down with a stress fracture in his ankle. For a while, his season felt over, until it wasn’t.

Big Mitch’s triumphant return came on March 27, but he was now backing up Isaiah Hartenstein. In the playoffs, Robinson had a lot of success guarding Joel Embiid, limiting the former MVP to 33% shooting. He also grabbed 22 offensive rebounds in five games. Unfortunately, the temper of Embiid got the best of him in Game 3, re-injuring Robinson’s ankle in a series of bizarre non-basketball nonsense. After playing in a hampered state, he got another procedure on his ankle after Game 1 against Indiana, ending his season.

Robinson still isn’t healthy. The Knicks know how valuable he is when he is 100%, so they have decided to make sure. Ian Begley initially set the timeline but Shams confirmed it: no Mitch until New Year’s. That means he’s down for at least 30 games. He has only played more than 63 games one time. Assuming these timelines are correct, it’ll be the third time he plays less than 50. That unreliability is why Karl-Anthony Towns is a Knick. The front office acknowledged they could not have Precious Achiuwa and Jericho Sims holding down the fort for an indefinite amount of time.

Still, Mitchell Robinson is entering his seventh season as a Knick. If he survives this season, he’ll be the first Knick to complete seven seasons here since Allan Houston. On a roster that has turned over multiple times, he has been the constant. He is the only player left who played for David Fizdale. He is the only player left who experienced the unexpected jubilation of the 2020-21 season. Only six people on the roster were even here a year ago today, but Mitch is the grandpa of a team in this regard.

It’s hard to set goals for a guy whose entire career has been a question mark. I’m going to try, though:

Be Healthy For The Playoffs

I’m confident enough in the health of Achiuwa and Towns for Mitch to take his time. Make sure you’re healthy in January. If you need rest days or a few games off for an ankle sprain, so be it.

His skill set is needed when it matters. He needs to be 100% then. The flexibility you have with him being a backup big with his ability to get offensive rebounds to keep possessions going if things get stagnant. I’m genuinely curious how a lineup with him and KAT would look. The way the team is built suggests that Mitch clogging the paint wouldn’t negatively affect the offense. I mean, there’s nobody else (besides Achiuwa and Sims) who could get minutes that can’t make a shot outside the paint. He isn’t there for offense, he’s there to wreak havoc on defense.

Free Throws, Free Throws, Free Throws

Mitchell Robinson has never been a good free-throw shooter. His career-high is just 60%. What’s bizarre is that he’s only getting worse. He’s consistently averaged 2 free throws a game but has steadily gotten worse at them. He’s shot under 50% from the line in four straight seasons and somehow shot 41% last year. It got bad enough that teams started hacking him late in games. Robinson physically cannot be in the game late, regardless of how well he’s playing, because of his free throw woes.

He has to be better. You cannot be shooting under 50%. While he’s getting his legs and conditioning back, I hope he’s shooting hundreds of free throws a day. Maybe try the Rick Barry granny shot? It helped Wilt.

Shoot a Three

Ok, this is me being selfish. For years, I’ve wanted to see pickup Mitch rear his head. Sometimes, we see him go off the dribble, and it’s a really fun surprise.

He has never attempted a shot from beyond 20 feet. His longest make was a 12-footer in his rookie year (skip to 4:53, I promise it’s real). He attempted a 17-footer in 22-23, allegedly. Since 2003, he’s the only player to play over 7,000 minutes in the league without an attempt from 3. Since he entered the league, he’s the only one over 2,000.

Please, Mitch, one time. When the game is out of hand. Please shoot just one.

Stat Prediction:

35 games (4 starts)

18.2 MPG

5.1 PPG

7.5 RPG (3.9 ORPG)

1.2 BPG

0.5 SPG

64.5 FG%

0 3PA (sadly)

48.9 FT%

And hopefully, a healthy playoff run.