The brain trust weighs in again.
Greetings, Knickerbocker fans. As the 79th NBA season draws near, the Posting and Toasting crew has assembled to answer questions and offer predictions about the hooping residents of Madison Square Garden.
Commence the meeting!
1) What will be the Knicks’ starting lineup by January 1 / mid-way through the season?
Antonio Losada: At this point and given how this front office has cooked an entirely new roster, let alone lineup, in a matter of two years, give me Pound, Bang, Bupkus, Blanko, and Nawt. Now on a slightly more serious tone—because you never know with this FO, I’m dead serious—I have to go with Brunson, Bridges, Hart, OG, and Towns. I have to go with health, as impossible as that sounds after all we’ve gone through. And I have to leave Mitch out because I don’t expect him back by New Year. That said, give me Brunson, Bridges, OG, Towns, and Robinson once everybody is healthy with JH coming off the pine in his preferred role. (Side note: be sure to expect another/multiple in-season trades, it’s simply how Leon Rose operates.)
Michael Zeno: It’s really hard to say because of how much turnover there’s been since last season. Only two players from the Opening Night rotation last year are still here, and one of them is injured. That said, because of the mess that they’re in flexibility-wise, I think we won’t see more nuclear bombs on this roster. I default to the current 5 of Brunson-Bridges-Hart-Anunoby-KAT, but I can see Thibs experimenting with Deuce McBride in the starting five. As for when Mitch comes back? I think they’ll use him in certain sets with KAT, but he won’t be starting.
Andrew Polaniecki: I wish I possessed a crystal ball to forecast the future, but the reality is that OG Anunoby and Jalen Brunson are coming off of injuries. Karl-Anthony Towns has not completed a full 82-game season since 2017-18 and has participated in only 101 games over the last two years. With Landry Shamet’s release due to injury, and now the most recent injury to Precious Achiuwa, predicting the Knicks starting lineup come January feels more like a game of Russian roulette. In contrast to last season, when the Knicks dealt RJ Barrett midseason, it’s more than a safe bet that the starting 5 tomorrow night will still be on the roster come January. However, given Thibodeau’s propensity to employ a tight 7-8 man rotation with extended minutes for his starters, wear and tear is inevitable, and the likelihood of seeing multiple starting lineups by January is exceedingly high.
Russell Richardson: From their opening night starters, the Knicks rolled out a revamped lineup on January 1, 2024. Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle were joined by Donte DiVincenzo, OG Anunoby, and Isaiah Hartenstein and crew barnstormed the NBA through January. That team was easy to root for. Then, Julius dislocated his shoulder, and the team gradually fell apart, injury by injury. . . . This year’s opening lineup sports three new faces. Will their new-look first-five make it all the way to New Year’s Eve without injury? I wish. Given his history, OG is the least likely to stay healthy for the long haul. Mitchell Robinson might be back by then, too. Hence, on the first game of the calendar year–at home against the Jazz–don’t be surprised to see a lineup of Brunson, Deuce McBride, Bridges, Towns, and Mitch.
Kento Kato: As the others have alluded to above, trying to predict a starting lineup two and a half months in advance is a difficult task for any team, let alone the Knicks who have a history of injuries, midseason trades, and unpredictability. If I was a sportsbook though, the current starting lineup of Brunson, Hart, Bridges, Anunoby, and Towns has to be the one with the highest odds though. There will always be questions and concerns with injuries. But that five-man group seems like the one that coach Tom Thibodeau will continue to trust and learn on the most.
Sam Stein: Stop me if you’ve heard this before. Compared to last year’s opening night, the Knicks are essentially a new team with a fresh roster, and it’s impossible to predict the ups and downs that come with a long and tumultuous NBA season. OG struggled last year with his health, KAT hasn’t played 80 games in a year since 2017-18, and Brunson is fresh off of surgery. And Thibs is notorious for running his guys into the ground. One thing I will say, though – even with the preseason starting five (Brunson, Hart, Bridges, Anunoby, KAT) healthy, I’d expect Miles McBride to join the starting unit in favor of Josh Hart. Hart would be fit to reassume his sixth-man role from last year, and McBride could take floor spacing to the next level thanks to his shooting abilities and defensive presence.
2) Where will the Knicks rank offensively and defensively this season?
Antonio Losada: The Knicks had the 7th-best adjusted Offensive Rating and the 10th-best DRtg—combining both, the average adjusted Net Rating had the Knickerbockers sitting pretty in 5th position. With KAT and Bridges now in tow, I have to say the offense will go up a notch (yes, those shooting issues won’t last long) while the defense won’t drop that much if at all, so let’s go with a top-six finish on both ends.
Michael Zeno: This will depend on the lineups. If Mikal Bridges can’t figure out his jumpshot issues, it lowers the potential. That said, the Brunson-KAT P&R was ultra-efficient in the preseason, and as long as you have them, you’re a top-ten offense. Add in Deuce and OG’s shooting, and you’re probably top five, even if Mikal has some growing pains. Defensively, I think they’ll slip to around tenth, adjusting for the absence of Big Mitch and any time OG misses.
Andrew Polaniecki: The loss of Donte DiVincenzo will be a significant blow. Replacing the franchise’s single-season leader in three-pointers made isn’t something that can be done overnight, and with Mikal Bridges entering the start of the regular season with his jumper missing in action, and the waiving of Shamet, the Knicks are going to have to dig deep to find that additional offensive spark outside of the top two players. With the addition of KAT the Knicks now boast one of the league’s premier centers, who will inevitably become the offensive centerpiece. His career shooting percentage of .524 will undoubtedly elevate the Knicks’ already impressive .465 field goal percentage from last season. Only two players—Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle—averaged more shot attempts per game last season, though neither eclipsed the 50% mark on their attempts.
Defensively, the Knicks finished 9th in the NBA last season. Although Mitch was out for most of the year, his contributions on defense when healthy are second to none. At this point who knows when the Knicks will see him back on the court. Isaiah Hartenstein was able to step into Robinson’s shoes and did a bang-up stellar job on both ends of the court, and will be sorely missed. A fully healthy OG Anunoby paired up with the heart and soul of the Knicks, Josh Hart, the team has the ability to maintain a strong presence on the defensive end of the court, but with the losses of DiVincenzo, Robinson, and now Precious Achiuwa, maintaining a top-10 defensive ranking will be an uphill battle.
Kento Kato: This season’s offense looks better on paper with the addition of Bridges and Towns, but the team also lost talent this offseason. Two very important offensive hubs in Randle and Hartenstein, who also worked the offensive boards, are gone, and DiVincenzo, one of the best volume shooters in the league, was traded. They now have the spacing and shooting ability to make things easier for Brunson, which should give them a much higher offensive ceiling. But between Bridges’ shooting woes during the pre-season, Hart’s reluctance/inability to find his shot, and the loss of the aforementioned trio, New York’s offensive floor might have taken a hit. Thanks in large part to Brunson and Towns, New York should end the season as a top-five-ish offensive team, but it’ll take some time to get there.
Compared to last season, the Knicks defense is . . . different. They sacrificed some paint protection from Hartenstein, but upgraded on the wings with Bridges now in the fold. Will the defensive drop-off from Hartenstein to Towns be more significant than the upgrade on the perimeter from DiVincenzo to Bridges? It could actually be pretty close. Hartenstein was a strong defender down low, but he struggled against both Joel Embiid and Myles Turner in the playoffs. And while Towns has never been a great defender, there’s hope that maturity and age have made him more willing to accept a larger role on that end of the floor in his second stint under Thibodeau. On the wings, DiVincenzo battled and was a feisty competitor, but Bridges is the superior individual defender. Mikal brings extensive experience as a primary perimeter defender, and his ability to navigate screens as the main point-of-attack defender should complement Anunoby exceptionally well.
That said, the team’s biggest early losses will be Robinson and Achiuwa. Their absence, along with Hartenstein’s departure and a lack of continuity from last season, is likely to result in the team hovering around a top-10 defense during the first half of the season. I trust that with Bridges, Anunoby, McBride, Hart, and the eventual return of Achiuwa and Robinson, the defense, like the offense, could be a top-five one when the season ends.
Richardson: Once the Jalen-and-KAT pick-and-roll express starts humming—and Bridges finds a comfortable shooting form—New York will have a scorching top-five offense. Defensively, they’ll rank in the top 10, anchored by the harassing abilities of Anunoby, Bridges, and Hart. Thibs won’t have it any other way.
Sam Stein: The Knicks’ offense will be legit this year. Jalen Brunson will have more space to operate than ever without help in the paint from opposing bigs, who will be focused on guarding KAT, a career 40% three-point shooter. The PNR between the two will be lethal, especially considering Anunoby and Bridges will be camped out in the corners, ready to pull from three. Their defense will also be top-notch – the two aforementioned wings (Anunoby, Bridges) are elite on-ball and help defenders. The real question is if the Knicks can overcome a drop-off in paint presence from Robinson/Hartenstein to KAT, who has been playing as a 4 alongside Rudy Gobert for the last few years in Minnesota. Josh Hart will be around for rebounding assistance, but it’s definitely something to monitor.
All of that said – things should go swimmingly for the first unit, but there are serious concerns about the team’s depth. Mitchell Robinson and Precious Achiuwa are hurt to start the season. McBride is the clear sixth man, but who else will contribute? Cam Payne? Jericho Sims? Ariel Hukporti? Pacome Dadiet? There will be opportunities for these players to earn roles early in the year. But the drop-off after the first six up is a massive one. If players don’t step up quickly, the Knicks’ offensive and defensive units will both suffer dramatically. All things considered, I’d guess a top-five offensive finish and a top-ten defensive finish feels within reach. It’ll come down to health and depth at the end of the day.
3) How many Knicks will average at least 18 points per game (and which players)?
Antonio Losada: Considering 51 players hit that mark last season and three will share the floor in New York this year, I have to bet exclusively on Brunson (28.7 PPG last year) and Towns (21.8) getting there once again. Only the Lakers (LBJ, AD, D’Lo) and the Pelicans (Zion, BI, McCollum) had three such players, so it’s not an easy feat nor something that bodes well for winning… Happy with that JB+KAT duo.
Michael Zeno: I’ll also go with two. There’s only one basketball, and while it wouldn’t shock me to see Bridges or Anunoby approach 18 PPG, I think both will settle in the mid-teens. Add in Deuce, probably scoring 10-12 off the bench, and you’ll get just JB and KAT. I think both will be all-stars and average 23+.
Richardson: Count on Brunson for 25 per night, and Towns will average a 23-10 double-double. Basketball Reference thinks Bridges will average 19 PPG . . . let’s trust them—and trust that Mikal will straighten out his shooting form soon.
Andrew Polaniecki: I too don’t foresee anyone aside from Brunson and Towns averaging more than 18 points per game this season. While Bridges will undoubtedly have some standout performances, including several 30-point nights, the offense will primarily flow through KAT and JB. As a result, it’s difficult to envision a third player consistently reaching the 18-point-per-game mark.
Kento Kato: I can’t see it being more than two. If we played out this season 100 times, are there scenarios where Bridges averaged more than 18 points per game? Probably. But it just seems unlikely. He will have nights where he scores 20+ points but there will also be games where he scores 12 points. And the offense will still rely heavily on Brunson and Towns. Brunson will average around 25 to 26PPG, Towns will average around 22 to 23PPG, and Bridges will be closer to the 17PPG mark.
Sam Stein: Not to be boring, but Brunson and KAT will be the only two to surpass that mark. Bridges and Anunoby simply won’t have the volume needed to reach those marks in this offense. I could see Brunson touching 27 PPG this year, and KAT putting up around 22 PPG. Bridges should sit around 15-16 PPG every night, with Anunoby and McBride not too far behind.
4) What will be the Knicks’ final record and standing in the Eastern Conference?
Antonio Losada: The Knicks have gone from 37 to 47 and lastly 50 wins in the past three seasons. They have made back-to-back ECSFs. They have gone from fifth to third to second in the Atlantic Division. The Celtics are going nowhere and will probably top the Atlantic by default, but the Knicks are on a clear ascension and still have tons of room to improve so it looks like a 55-win season could be on the horizon. Gimme a 54-28 record and the No. 2 seed in the East.
Richardson: 50-32, just like last year. Given their talent on paper, this time should win more, but injuries are already an issue and the second unit remains a question mark. Fewer than 50 wins and I’ll have to dig up my “Fire Thibs” drafts. (I kid, I kid. . . .)
Michael Zeno: The only thing that can stop the Knicks from challenging the Celtics for the #1 seed is injuries. I think they’re better than teams like the Bucks, Sixers, and Cavaliers, but they’re not quite the toast of the East. Their best chance to get the top seed will be taking advantage of Boston going into the season without Kristaps Porzingis. I’ll go 55-27 and be the #2 seed.
Andrew Polaniecki: With the upgraded starting lineup, in an ideal scenario, the Knicks should surpass last season’s 50-32 record. However, the NBA season is a marathon, not a sprint. If the team can stay healthy throughout the year, achieving a 53-29 record would be a significant improvement. But, as always, when it comes to the Knicks’ health, that’s a substantial ‘if.’
Kento Kato: If everything were to go right, the Knicks can win 55 games and be the clear second-best team in the east. But as we’ve unfortunately seen over the last few seasons, things often don’t go perfectly. Whether it’s health, fit, cold streaks, trades, etc., every team deals with something. Now, New York has shown that they are pretty adept at handling such situations but with less proven depth and less continuity, it may be a bit harder for this season’s team to be as resilient through the tough stretches. As I continue to mention, I think the current iteration of the Knicks has a higher ceiling and is better equipped than anyone in the East to beat the Celtics and make a deep playoff run. But as far as the regular season goes, I think it’s more likely that they take a step back or a side step, and finish the season as the third seed with about 48 or 50 wins but with a lot of momentum heading into the postseason.
Sam Stein: I am seriously, seriously concerned about the Knicks’ health and depth heading into the season. There’s no doubt in my mind that Leon Rose feels the same way. If everything goes perfectly and we see the starters play 75+ games each, 55 wins is attainable. With that said, given the injury potential and questions about the bench unit, I think the team falls within the 49-51 win range and secures the three seed – but is healthy heading into the playoffs.
5) What are your thoughts about the In-Season Tournament? Will the Knicks win it?
Antonio Losada: Am I the Official European Resident of the P&T Crew? Yes. Does that mean I’m in love with cups, tournaments, and the whole soccer vibe forced into the NBA? Not really. That said, I don’t hate it. It adds some manufactured fake variety to the regular season and keeps me entertained, so it’s cool. I would love the Knicks to win it, but I wouldn’t hate life if they crash out of it in the group stage either.
Michael Zeno: No doubt in my mind the Knicks will advance to the knockout stage. They match up well with the group, plus there’s no guarantee Embiid plays in the head-to-head meeting because of the back-to-back stuff. I think they’ll make it to Vegas but come up short. No shame in that.
Andrew Polaniecki: I’m not a fan at all. The Lakers won the tournament but didn’t even make the playoffs. Yet they celebrated in December, spraying champagne as if they’d won the championship—for what? On top of that, the tournament’s final game adds an 83rd game to the regular season, where the stats don’t even count, and the risk of injury increases.
Kento Kato: The In-Season tournament last season almost felt like a fever dream. Many forgot it ever happened and even when it was going on, watching them felt so “whatever”. New York should have the talent to move on to the knockout stage and with Thibodeau at the helm, they’ll likely fare well there too given his “win at all costs” approach. I’d even give them a top-three chance at winning it. But my concerns about their early-season depth and on-court chemistry remain so I don’t see them winning it.
Richardson: The IST will remain completely unimportant to me until the Knicks win it this year and then it will be the best thing Adam Silver has done in his tenure as Commish.
Sam Stein: What felt like a total gimmick when first announced ended up thoroughly impressing me. The IST had me watching matchups I wouldn’t have been tuned into otherwise, and games in November and December were serving up playoff atmospheres. Say no more. Sure, there’s no inherent meaning behind the trophy, but give NBA players something specific to play for and they will compete. I’ll take any banner we can get in MSG. The Knicks are in a favorable pool, and reaching Vegas feels attainable. Maybe a couple of bounces go our way.
6) Who will be the Knicks’ MVP?
Antonio Losada: Wired: Brunson. Tired: Brunson. Expired: Brunson. Whatever: Brunson. Dominican Towns might have won my heart, but this team will go as far as Jalen Brunson takes it. It is what it is at this point.
Michael Zeno: Jalen Marquis Brunson. How he goes, the team goes. I’m guessing everyone is gonna go with Brunson, so I’ll name my X-factor OG Anunoby. If he stays healthy and plays 70+ games, there’s a good chance the Knicks are the #1 seed. His defensive versatility and elite 3-point shooting open everything up. Plus, I think he has more of an offensive bag than he’s needed to show so far.
Andrew Polaniecki: JB… he already is by taking the lesser salary to make this team better. He will continue to be the leader of the team, but now that he has KAT, he has Josh Hart as his Robin, and KAT as his Superman or Spiderman of whichever other superhero you prefer.
Kento Kato: Jalen Brunson. He’s their best player, most valuable player, most important player, leader, captain, etc. Towns’ addition, Anunoby’s health, Bridges’ shooting, McBride’s continued growth, and Hart finding his groove will all be incredibly important this season. And all of them will play pivotal roles in deciding how the upcoming season plays out. But Brunson is still the engine that makes this team go, and just how far this team goes, will ultimately down to how far he can take them.
Richardson: Gimme a B. Gimme an R. Gimme a U. . . . Yeah, what they all said above.
Sam Stein: There are only so many ways we can tell you that the Knicks live and die by the Brunson. He’s the man. He has dudes around him. But he’s the guy.
Go Knicks!