So, what about the bench?

Partially lost in the aftermath of this weekend’s blockbuster was a now complicated picture for the bench.

Just a few weeks ago, it all felt so simple. A clear starting five and a clear four in reserve with solid depth beyond that. The only question we had about how the roster would be utilized was the minutes distribution.

Then, reports came out that the Knicks were going to be cautious about Mitchell Robinson’s return, likely in December or January. That started a mini-whirlwind of potential trades for depth. The question then became “Would Thibs lean on a 5-out with Randle playing center or is Precious starting?”

And then, a nuclear bomb (not of the Woj variety, sadly) dropped on the sports world Friday night. Rip up all the planned rotations. Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, and Keita Bates-Diop are shipped out for Karl-Anthony Towns in a complicated three-team deal that isn’t even complete yet.

When you take out Randle and Donte, and consider Mitch’s injury, the starting five comes into focus.

Jalen Brunson
Mikal Bridges
Josh Hart
OG Anunoby
Karl Anthony-Towns

The question then becomes . . . who’s left for the bench?

Locks

Deuce McBride

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I do want to say I wouldn’t be shocked with certain games or lineups with Deuce starting with Brunson and Hart as a super-sub off the bench. That said, Hart is a workhorse who will play big minutes so that’s not happening.

This is where it gets interesting. We know Deuce is getting bench minutes and is probably the sixth man. He’ll sometimes play alongside Brunson and might run the point when he sits. The real question is the latter. Will Deuce be the point guard off the bench? Deuce has some limitations as a point guard, namely with creating his own shot and running the offense. That’s not to say he can’t do it, but you’re kidding yourself if you didn’t notice how stiff non-Brunson lineups looked offensively (NYK’s offensive rating drops by 14 points with Deuce on and Brunson off). Could Deuce be better in an off-ball 2-guard role? He’s become an elite shooter (imagine saying that before last season) and thrived in situations where Brunson ran the point next to him (+11.3 net rating together).

Precious Achiuwa

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At least for now. Precious stepped up his game after being acquired with OG Anunoby last December, posting 7.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks a game. His 52.5% from the field was the best he’s had since he was a rookie, taking three shots a game. This is a product of getting a LOT better at the rim, going from 42% inside of three feet to 58%. His overall shooting is still bleh.

The key for Precious is to be playing center. The Knicks played him a lot at PF and the team posted bad net ratings when he shared the floor with Robinson and Hartenstein (although weirdly he and Sims were pretty good together). In the regular season, the offense suffered. In the playoffs? Achiuwa-Hartenstein lineups got eaten alive (140 defensive rating in 81 minutes).

That shouldn’t be too difficult in the first two months, but it’ll be more challenging to avoid later. That said, could KAT’s playstyle make Achiuwa a capable 4? KAT plays more like a four anyway with his floor spacing and shooting, while Achiuwa is the down-low rebounder and defender. Just please, no two traditional big lineups.

On the Bubble

Cam Payne

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Payne was last scene exploding off the bench for the Sixers against the Knicks in the playoffs, going 4-for-7 with three threes in Game 3 as the Knicks’ defense got bombarded from all angles. Payne didn’t have as big of an impact in the ensuing three games, but he made multiple shots in all of them. Payne brings to the Knicks a capability to play off the bench. This post by NBA University last week shocked me.

The now-30-year-old guard played with Mikal Bridges in Phoenix and shot a stellar 39% from 3 on 3.4 attempts/game with the Bucks and Sixers last season. Payne could run the bench unit but could also play off-ball. He isn’t an exact slouch on defense too, so it’s going to be interesting what their plan with him is.

Tyler Kolek

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This angle intrigues me. The 34th overall pick in last year’s draft played very well in Summer League, averaging 9.6 points, 7 assists, and 3.4 rebounds, highlighted by a tough game-winner against the Kings. He did shoot poorly, but he also had a much larger role than he will see in the NBA this season.

If he plays, that is.

Kolek is the most NBA-ready guy the Knicks selected in the draft. He starred in college as an undersized, shifty, playmaking point guard who led a resurgent Marquette team to a Big East title. He averaged 15.3 points and 7.7 assists on 49.6% from the field and 38.8% from 3 as a senior on a top team in the nation and was named a second-team All-American. The crazy thing is that he won Big East Player of the Year with slightly worse numbers as a junior for an equally stout Golden Eagles squad.

The funny thing about college basketball is that most of these All-Americans aren’t in great spots. Dalton Knecht, DaRon Holmes, and Zach Edey were first-rounders but Kolek, Tristen Newton, and Jamal Shead had to wait until Day 2. Several of them are playing their age 22 and 23 seasons in college this year. The ability to translate college to the NBA stunts a lot of college stars (Collin Gillespie).

Kolek would bring an edge to the second unit. He fits the mantra of the team, he’s gritty, plays at 100 MPH, and isn’t slacking on defense (1.5 SPG in college but is obviously physically limited). He’s also the most natural playmaker on the team. With Randle gone, the only one of the top seven who is a good distributor is Brunson, and he’s always looking for his shot first. Kolek would presumably be used in non-Brunson minutes, shifting Deuce to an off-ball role where he can thrive as a shooter.

Landry Shamet

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Shamet does not have a guaranteed contract, but if you read the tea leaves, it feels like they want him in some role. After the trade, multiple reporters pointed out that, because of the second apron hard cap, the Knicks could not retain both Marcus Morris Sr. and Shamet. The Knicks proceeded to release Morris.

Shamet is still only 27 but is just 6’4”. Running him as a 3 doesn’t sound wise. His calling card is, of course, shooting. In his career, he’s shot 38.4% from deep on 5 attempts a game, but he shot a harrowing (for him) 33.8% from deep for a depressing Wizards team last year.

A lot of the Knicks’ options are guards and bigs, but this is where the fact you have three wings starting helps. NBA rotations aren’t like hockey line changes. Anunoby, Bridges, and Hart will stagger minutes across to fit different lineups. If injuries happen, then it gets sticky.

Jericho Sims

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Sims looked like the opening-night backup center until the trade. Now? He looks to be buried on the bench if the Knicks fill out the rotation with a couple of guards. Sims has two strengths, leaping ability and his innate switchability on defense. I mean, come on this is great:

If only he could do other things. He’s more willing to shoot away from the rim than Mitch and is better from the line, but he is still very bad at both. When he first came into the league, I referred to him as Baby Mitch until I realized they were the same age. Sims is almost 26 and still frequently gets lost on the boards and protecting the rim.

The Question Mark

Mitchell Robinson

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Oh, Mitch. What are we gonna do with you? Will he even be on the team come Opening Night? When healthy, there are very few bigs in the NBA who have more of an impact defensively. If he ever stayed healthy for 70-75 games, he’d be an all-Defense lock. Unfortunately, he’s struggled to play 60 in recent years.

Mitch is going to miss the first two months, minimum. The question will be: if he’s still here, what will his role be? He would be an outstanding 20-25 MPG backup 5. He could also start alongside KAT if they wanted a certain look, given KAT isn’t the strongest defender. He gets his own section because we don’t know what to expect from him, role-wise or personality-wise.

Longshots

The Other Rooks

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I said earlier that Tyler Kolek is the most NBA-ready prospect, and that is true. By a mile. Pacome Dadiet has promise but was rough in summer league and is only 18. He should spend the year in Westchester. The same can be said for Ariel Hukporti and Kevin McCullar Jr, both late seconds. In a best-case scenario for the three rooks, Dadiet develops quickly, Hukporti impresses in training camp to supplant Sims, and McCullar looks more ready than we thought to fill a hole at bench wing.

I’m not buying it.

External Signings

Due to cap rules, the Knicks cannot add a veteran minimum player (at least it looks that way). That said, once this is all sorted out, the Knicks should make a few signings for training camp. Did the org tell Morris or Okeke that they would sign them back once they completed the sign-and-trades to Charlotte? There are quite a few open roster spots.

Prediction

Deuce McBride
Tyler Kolek
Landry Shamet
Precious Achiuwa

Who goes out when Mitch comes back? Well, if everyone is healthy, it’ll depend on how they play. I’m leaning that the Knicks look to maximize their offense because of their ability to stagger their elite defensive wings and, of course, Deuce. Kolek allows Deuce to be more off-ball, where I think he can thrive. Precious will hold down the backup center, though I won’t be surprised if Thibs has games with Sims in the bench rotation with Achiuwa. Lastly, Shamet isn’t the tallest but could play the 2 or the 3 and is yet another sniper for the squad. Cam Payne would work if he was a couple of inches taller, though again, we’ll see him at some point too.